Ravens-Steelers: Black and Purple All Over, Again

What’s black and purple and, well, black and purple all over? It’s the bruising Ravens-Steelers rivalry of course. Fresh off a Monday night upset that proved rivalries like Washington-Dallas (and Baltimore-Pittsburgh) really are “throw out the records” affairs, this Sunday night we get treated to the second 2014 installment of Ravens-Steelers.

Game 1 saw Baltimore prevail at home 26-6, and so far the Ravens have looked like the better team this season. But the AFC North rivals come into this week’s game with matching 5-3 records following the Steelers offensive explosion to beat the Colts and the Ravens’ narrow loss at Cincinnati.

Traditionally, this game has been a coin flip. For the most part, with little regard to how each team is faring in a particular season, Vegas has generally made the home team a 3-point favorite. You could almost set your watch by it… “Oh, Ravens-Steelers this week? Probably home team favored by 3.”

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Not this year… despite two consecutive high-profile home wins for Pittsburgh and a recent loss for Baltimore, this one has ranged from Steelers -1 to “pick’em” to Ravens -1 by the end of the week. Obviously the oddsmakers have a little more faith in the Ravens than Steelers at this point… but with this game in Pittsburgh and some in-division revenge on the minds of the Steelers, and given the history of this series you could argue that there’s some line value in betting the Steelers at anything less than -3.

But I’m not gonna argue that. The Ravens have played very well against Ben Roethlisberger the last few seasons, and I wouldn’t be shocked to see Baltimore come in and get a win at Three Rivers.

Instead, let’s look at the Over/under for total points… for years these teams would grind out 16-13 and 13-10 slugfests and grudge matches. But these aren’t your father’s Ravens and Steelers. The once-dominant defenses have seen the likes of Ray Lewis and Ed Reed walk out that door, and it seems the only one left on defense for the Black & Gold is the shell of the safety formerly known as Troy Polamalu.

The Steelers can’t really stop anybody, and that doesn’t bode well against a Ravens team that at least once per quarter will employ their patented “Flacco overthrows someone deep and gets the interference call” offensive strategy. I don’t expect Big Ben’s hot streak to continue to the tune of 500+ yards and 6 TD’s he managed against the Colts, but he’s playing well and surrounded by weapons and the Ravens will be without CB Jimmy Smith this week.

Flacco has had time to throw this year (only been sacked 9 times in 8 games after being sacked an average of 3 times per game last season), and Roethlisberger is coming off a rare sackless outing against the Colts. Given ample time against banged-up secondaries, both these QB’s will find success. The Ravens are averaging 27.1 ppg and the Steelers are scoring 25.6; Pittsburgh gives up an unimpressive 24.5 ppg while Baltimore has held opponents to just 16.4 (a task that will be tougher on the road without CB Smith).

Vegas has this Over/under set at 48, which looks pretty high for a Ravens-Steelers game. In fact, over the last 15 matchups (including playoffs and the first meeting this season), Baltimore-Pittsburgh games have averaged just under 37 total points.

So while most people will see the black and purple and assume it will be low-scoring battle, and just bet the UNDER….. I’m recommending the OVER in this game. Keep in mind, the prime-time games on Sunday, Monday, and Thursday nights have gone over the total more often than not; maybe it’s the rules changes and over-emphasis of ticky-tack fouls against pass defenses.

Add it all up, and this one’s got the makings of 27-24, 28-21, or 30-20 type of game that goes over the total of 48. As for which team actually comes away with a win in this installment of one of the best rivalries in the NFL… all bets are off.

THE OTHER BIG GAME
Denver Broncos -3.5 at New England Patriots – Because Denver has a decent defense that can generate pressure, and pressure has been the only thing that’s ever made Tom Brady look human. On the other side of the ball, there’s no D in New Englan, if you spell it like that without the D. But seriously the Denver receivers are a mismatch for the Patriots defense missing its leading tackler. New England is at home with the better coach, and Brady is just as good as Manning, but beyond that Denver is the deeper, more talented team coming off a few extra days rest and looking to take control of the AFC. Broncos 28, Patriots 21.