Green Bay Packers Schedule Reset: Perfectly manageable slate ahead

Aaron Rodgers never ceases to amaze me, and he’s off to another phenomenal season. It’s almost unfathomable how good he’s been to this point in his career, as he’s averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with a completion percentage of 67.6^ to go with 19 touchdowns and just three interceptions. Rodgers is one of the few quarterbacks who can exhibit the top qualities of a gunslinger and game manager, meaning that he has elite arm strength, elite accuracy, elite decision-making skills, and a willingness to challenge defenses. Despite the fact that the Green Bay Packers rushing attack has been inefficient, they are sixth in the league in points thanks to their elite QB.

The Packers are on their bye today, and it seems like a good time to give their schedule a bit of a reset and predict out how they could finish the year, based on their remaining slate of games. It seemed like the NFC North would be an incredible competitive division, but it’s a two-team race between the Detroit Lions and Packers right now. I have a feeling the Chicago Bears will bounce back, but their defense is simply too terrible to take seriously.

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Last week, the Packers were blown out by the New Orleans Saints, who have come alive and finally look like Super Bowl contenders, as they also pounded the rival Carolina Panthers in another primetime game. It’s always embarrassing to get beat 44-23, but the Packers do have an excuse; Rodgers went down with a hamstring injury and wasn’t able to squirm away from the pressure as a result.

If there are two things that can really impede the Packers progress going forward, then it’s their running game and run defense. I think their struggles defending the run have been well-documented, because just about every legitimately talented RB has a big day against them. The Packers arguably have the league’s worst run D, as they have the third-highest YPC allowed (4.8). Their running game has been very weak, as they sorely lack a tight end who can block and find it equally difficult to bounce runs outside. The line isn’t as bad as people think, but Eddie Lacy, who should have been playing at a high level this season, has also been a disappointment.

Of course, every team has weaknesses, and the Packers are, quite honestly, one of the best teams in the league right now. It’s hard to top the best quarterback in the game, especially when he can throw the ball to Jordy Nelson, Randall Cobb, and mature rookie Davante Adams. The Pack also boast a talented secondary, even if they allowed 44 to the Saints last week. Their pass defense has bounced back big-time, with Sam Shields making good on his contract, Mike Daniels following up his big 2013 season with some more excellent pass-rushing displays, Casey Hayward continuing to stand out, and other pass rushers (like Clay Matthews and Julius Peppers) playing well. While the Packers don’t have the best pass D around, it’s significantly improved from last year’s edition and has generally been a bright spot for this team.

Let’s take a brief look at the Packers remaining 2014 opponents before finishing up with a quick record prediction.

Week 10 Chicago Bears: The Packers will face the Bears after their bye week, and I have a tough time seeing the Bears giving the Packers a hard time. They won 38-17 in their last meeting, and I could see Rodgers putting up similar numbers on the Bears pass D, especially since Chicago allowed 51 to Tom Brady and the New England Patriots in Week 8. The Bears are reeling, and I don’t think they will bounce back by next week, though they are also on a bye week.

Week 11 Philadelphia Eagles: The Eagles are one of the toughest teams on the Packers remaining schedule, and I think the Packers could lose a high-scoring one to Chip Kelly’s bunch. Although the Eagles rushing attack has been even more disappointing than the Packers and Lacy, they are also locked in to improve with Evan Mathis and Jason Kelce (he’s already back) set to return by then. This game could easily come down to how many plays the Eagles and Packers secondaries make, as well as the individual performances from Lacy and McCoy.

Week 12 Minnesota Vikings: Although the Packers will have to face a legitimate quarterback in their rematch with the Vikings, it shouldn’t matter much. I mean, it’s not like the Vikings know how to protect Teddy Bridgewater, and I could see Daniels and the Packers edge rushers having another double-digit QB hit game, though Bridgewater is considerably better at dealing with pressure than Christian Ponder. Aside from Jerick McKinnon and the pass rushers, nothing about the Vikings should truly scare the Packers.

Week 13 New England Patriots: This is the toughest remaining game on the Packers schedule, but Lacy could take advantage of one of the only other contenders with a pathetic run defense, though the Pats did improve their run D by adding Akeem Ayers and Jonathan Casillas before the trade deadline. I think the Packers have a really good chance at winning this game, but the deciding factors could be the Patriots secondary and Rob Gronkowski.

Week 14 Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons are one of the worst teams in the NFL, because they have absolutely no depth and have even less of a chance at stopping the Packers offense. This one will almost certainly be a blowout, because I can’t see Matt Ryan and Julio Jones doing enough to keep this one close.

Week 15 Buffalo Bills: If there’s any team with a good shot at pulling an upset against the Packers, then it’s the Bills. I think the Packers will have a very hard time running it on Brandon Spikes and the Bills defense, while T.J. Lang, Corey Linsley, and Josh Sitton will all have to be at their best in order to effectively counter Spikes, Kyle Williams, and Marcell Dareus up the middle. That said, I think the Packers passing attack is too good and the Bills passing attack is too mediocre for the Bills to swing the upset. If the Bills had a significantly better offense, then this would be close.

Week 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Another NFC South team with a defense conducive to a big day for Rodgers, who should be able to clear 300 yards in this one. I have a hard time seeing the Packers letting this one get within 14.

Week 17 Detroit Lions: From the perspective of a neutral observer (me), there’s no better way to cap off the season than to face the team you are fighting with for the division crown. The Lions won the first matchup of the year in decisive fashion, but a trip to Lambeau could yield a different result for both parties. This should be the Packers most exciting game left (even more exciting than games against the Pats, Eagles, and Bears), and it looks like a toss-up.

Let’s say the Packers take one game against the Eagles or Patriots, lose a division game (likely the Lions), and beat one of the teams they are supposed to beat. That would give them a record of 6-2 for the second-half of the season, which would yield an 11-5 record. It’s possible they could lose to someone like the Bills or Bucs and only win 10 or lose both of their games against the Eagles and Pats, but I see double-digit victories as a worst-case scenario. The Packers deserve to make it into the playoffs, and, although it might be too close to call, I think they have more talent than the Lions. To me, the Green Bay Packers are the best team in the division, and I think they should finish off the year with 11.

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