Derek Carr vs. Denver Broncos Projection

Pretty much every game for the Oakland Raiders should be considered relatively “tough”, because they are still searching for their first win and will have less talent than the vast majority of the teams they face. That said, the Raiders have more bright spots than the usual winless teams, because they actually have a franchise quarterback, a Rookie of the Year favorite, and another young impact defender in Sio Moore (maybe D.J. Hayden joins that list, too). Unfortunately, the Raiders lack a true weapon on offense, don’t have a legitimate running game, and have plenty of questions on defense.

It doesn’t get any easier for the Raiders, who must face all of their AFC West rivals in a row, starting with their Week 10 matchup against the Denver Broncos. It’s almost a guarantee that Hayden and the Raiders defense will be put to the test against Peyton Manning and the Broncos passing attack, though I know plenty of people will be hoping for Khalil Mack to get his wish by sacking Manning. Even though it would be his first sack of the season, Mack has been playing at an extremely high level, and anybody who says otherwise simply overrates the value of the sack as a comprehensive pass-rushing statistic (in other words, they probably don’t know what they’re talking about).

Live Feed

Just Blog Baby

Derek Carr and Mack were immediately cited as being home-run picks by Reggie McKenzie in the aftermath of the 2014 NFL Draft, and I thought Carr should have been the second QB taken off the board this year. He’s clearly been the most impressive quarterback in this year’s draft class, even though he has worse skill position players than Blake Bortles or Teddy Bridgewater (that said, those two also play behind worse offensive lines, though their significantly better weapons at least make it all even). Johnny Manziel hasn’t notched a start for the Cleveland Browns this year, but I don’t think he would be able to play at the level of Carr, especially when you look at what the Raiders QB did in the near-upset of the bitter rival San Diego Chargers.

So how will he fare out this week? Carr hasn’t been asked to challenge defenses much this season, which is a shame since he arguably has one of the five strongest arms in the NFL. With an average of just 9.7 yards per reception, Carr probably isn’t going to hook up for huge plays that burn the Broncos talented safety duo of Rahim Moore and T.J. Ward. That said, the Broncos figure to get out to a quick lead due to their high octane passing attack, so we could see more deep throws than usual from Carr.

He’ll be tested a great deal by the Broncos defense, because even though the New England Patriots put up big points on them last week, they have some incredibly impressive talent on that side of the ball. Von Miller is an elite player in every sense (he’s the guy we think Mack could become, and he’s definitely on that track); DeMarcus Ware has been one of the NFL’s most efficient pass rushers this season; and the cornerback trio of Aqib Talib, Chris Harris Jr., and Bradley Roby is up there with the best of them.

Carr is at a disadvantage, because he doesn’t have enough talent to work with at the wide receiver position without a true No. 1 target he can trust. The Broncos have the second-lowest net yards per pass attempt allowed and have also forced 12 interceptions, so this could be an ugly game for Carr if he doesn’t get enough support. It’s almost a guarantee that the Raiders aren’t going to be able to move the ball on the ground, unless if they #FreeLataviusMurray, which probably isn’t going to happen. It isn’t even a guarantee that Murray will be able to have success on the ground if given the carries, because the Broncos are also one of the top three teams in the NFL in run defense with just 3.3 yards per carry allowed. So not only do they have an elite offense, but they, as expected, have an elite defense in all facets.

James Jones, Mychal Rivera, and Andre Holmes have been leading the Raiders passing attack this season, and Rivera has been doing a great job of moving the chains lately. With Danny Trevathan out, Rivera could be the Raiders most productive pass-catcher on Sunday, as the Broncos could be weaker against him. The best matchup the Raiders have as far as WR vs. CB battles go might be Kenbrell Thompkins against Roby, because the way you beat the Broncos secondary is by using TEs and pass-catching depth. If the Raiders can get strong games out of Thompkins and Rivera, then Carr will have two productive possession guys to get the ball to.

I think the Raiders will get 35 attempts from Carr, and he’ll complete 22 or 23 passes for a completion percentage a few points above his season average of 60.7%. His yards per attempt average will likely be around his season average of six, so I expect an average performance by his regular season standards. Against a top-notch defense like the Broncos, Carr is pretty much set up to fail due to a hit-or-miss situation at wide receiver. Holmes, Thompkins, and Jones can do some nice things (especially Jones), but they don’t have a true No. 1 receiver, whereas the Broncos have two cornerbacks who can operate as No. 1, shutdown-type CBs in Talib and Harris. Carr, however, rises to the occasion in big games, and I think he’ll have a mixed bag of a day that is on par with what he’s done throughout the season. Once the Raiders get a feature back and a true No. 1 receiver, we’ll have a better idea of where Derek Carr is at as a QB.