Emmanuel Sanders’s dominance in numbers
Back when I covered the New England Patriots, I distinctly remembered wanting the team to sign Emmanuel Sanders away from the Pittsburgh Steelers, because I liked the upside he provided with his speed and ability to play inside or outside. However, I soured on Sanders as a national writer after watching him struggle last season on the Steelers, as he made frustrating drops and failed to take advantage of his opportunity as the No. 2 receiver across from Antonio Brown with Ben Roethlisberger as his QB.
In the offseason, Sanders signed with the Broncos after backing out of a deal with the Kansas City Chiefs, and his opportunity was even better than working with Roethlisberger, Brown, and the Steelers. Many of us figured he’d easily rack up huge numbers with Peyton Manning delivering him the ball and Demaryius Thomas, Julius Thomas, and Wes Welker taking pressure off of him. That said, I don’t think anyone expected him to dominate, because that’s exactly what he’s done in the first half of the 2014 season.
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I know you’re probably expecting me to go off and gloat about how I called Sanders dominating, but that’s definitely not the case. In fact, I was way off on Sanders to the point where I can say with complete certainty that I was “damn wrong”. Now, I wasn’t completely stupid, because I understood the obvious: he would put up big numbers in the Broncos offense. But I said things like, “I still think Eric Decker is better” and “Cody Latimer will have close to the same numbers as Sanders” before the season. Am I still a big Decker fan? Yup. Do I think he’s better than Sanders? Ha, I’m crazy, but I’m not stubborn in the face of facts. Do I still believe in Latimer long-term? Heck yeah. But do I understand that he is indeed as raw as he looked at Indiana? Of course.
What Emmanuel Sanders has done in the Broncos offense is just incredible, and I don’t think he should be discredited for benefiting from Manning and the brilliant pass-catchers around him. While those factors have indeed boosted his numbers and all that good stuff, it’s also important to release that Manning and Adam Gase have unlocked his potential. As the New England Patriots recognized early on, Sanders is one of those athletic “chess piece” receivers that can burn defenses deep or use their short-area quickness, burst, and incredible lateral agility to run a variety of routes and get open almost anywhere on the field.
Sanders has done exactly that here in his first season with the Broncos, and I would like to briefly list some statistics that I caught my eye when searching Sanders’s accomplishments. These numbers should objectively show just how terrific he has been this season, and he’s definitely turned me into a big believer this year.
1. According to the Pro Football Focus, Sanders has the second-highest WR Rating in the NFL, and WR Rating is basically QB Rating calculated for receivers, using the passes targeted at the WR as data. With a WR Rating of 125.4, Sanders is only beneath Randall Cobb, whose 148.0 WR Rating is just unreal. This means that Peyton has a 125.4 QB Rating when targeting Sanders, so he seems to be benefiting from his new No. 2 receiver just as much as Sanders is benefiting from the Hall of Fame passer.
2. Manning is completing 75.0% of his passes when he targets Sanders, and that gives the SMU product the league’s fourth-best catch rate. This becomes more impressive when you take into account that nearly one-third of his targets have come more than 15 yards downfield. No receiver in the league has been more impressive at consistently catching passes at all levels of the field than Sanders, who owns the intermediate game. Per PFF, DeSean Jackson and DeAndre Hopkins have the best two catch rates in the league on passes that travel at least 20 yards in the NFL, but Sanders checks in at an impressive third.
3. Per PFF, Jeremy Maclin, Larry Fitzgerald, and Kendall Wright have yet to drop a pass this season, and Sanders is the most-targeted wide receiver with just one drop this season, giving him the league’s fourth-lowest drop rate. Now that’s how you combine consistency with playmaking ability.
4. Among all receivers with at least 20 targets in the slot, PFF has Sanders with the best catch rate on targets in the slot, as he’s hauled in a whopping 88% of those passes. Inside-outside versatility has become huge in this league, and that’s a major reason why the Patriots and Broncos showed significant interest in Sanders. That catch rate shows that he can move the chains when lined up in the slot, and that gives the Broncos one of many wrinkles they can use in their advanced, elite offense.
5. Emmanuel Sanders is averaging a whopping 10.3 yards per target, has a solid 13.8 yards per reception to his credit, is, per Advanced Football Analytics, sixth in the NFL in Expected Points Added, is sixth in the NFL with 785 receiving yards, and only the elite Antonio Brown has more receptions than Sanders’s 57 this year.
6. According to the Pro-Football Reference “Play Index”, Sanders has caught all ten passes thrown at him over the middle (at any distance) for 180 yards (18 yards per reception and 18 yards per target). No other wide receiver with at least ten targets has a 100% catch rate on those types of throws (Anquan Boldin is close at 94.7%).