Khalil Mack and his Rookie of the Year Case

This year’s draft class is one of the best at the wide receiver position that I can remember in quite some time, and guys like Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Allen Robinson, and Mike Evans have done nothing but impress this season. However, the two most impressive players in the 2014 NFL Draft class have been on the defensive side of the ball, as Oakland Raiders first-round pick Khalil Mack and St. Louis Rams star defensive tackle Aaron Donald  have been absolutely dominant this season.

Mack is still searching for his first career sack as he heads into this week’s game against the Denver Broncos, and it would definitely be special for his first sack to be on Peyton Manning, especially since it looks like he’s on track for a great career in this league. Don’t let Mack’s “zero” in the sack column fool you, because he’s been attacking quarterbacks at a high pace this year.

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Coming out of Buffalo, we knew Mack would show off a high motor and top run defending skills in the NFL, and he’s definitely been able to accomplish that with 50 tackles so far this season. We also knew that his versatility would be a key, as Mack can play as a 3-4 OLB, 4-3 OLB, 4-3 DE, or even a 3-4 ILB if needed. The Raiders have been using him as a 3-4 OLB or 4-3 OLB in their hybrid defense, and he’s definitely shown burst off the edge when rushing the passer and some hard-nosed run D when asked.

If you want to fully appreciate how valuable Mack has been on the Raiders defense, look no further than his tackles for loss. An incredible disruptive presence already, Mack has racked up ten TFLs to go with his five QB hits, and those more than make up for his lack of sacks. He hasn’t been an elite pass rusher to start his career, but he’s been solid and consistent, which isn’t what you usually see from a rookie pass rusher. Jadeveon Clowney is in a bit of an unfair situation due to an injury, but Mack has outplayed Clowney, Dee Ford, and Marcus Smith this year. Despite coming from a much smaller school, Mack has not looked raw at all.

In fact, the Raiders first-round pick and franchise building block has looked incredibly mature, and it’s difficult to put up the kinds of numbers in run defense that he is without displaying a high level of maturity. We always like to look at sacks when trying to evaluate people who are known as pass rushers, but I think people need to start thinking of Mack as a jack-of-all-trades defender who can dominate against the run or pass, instead of just trying to hone in on one dimension. If you start focusing on the sacks, you miss the tackles, tackles for loss, and all the re-directed runs that show up on the stat sheet. Moreover, you miss out on the plays in which he disrupted the quarterbacks’ rhythm, because you are too busy complaining about sacks.

So why don’t we take a look at Mack’s consistent pass rushing skills? Among all 3-4 outside linebackers, the Pro Football Focus has Mack tabbed with the eighth-highest Pass Rushing Productivity, which, generally speaking, means that he is the eight-most consistent pass rusher in the league. Based on the number of pass-rushing snaps he gets, he turns in pressure at a higher rate than most of his peers, and that’s certainly impressive for a rookie. So yeah, don’t read into the lack of sacks too much.

The Pro Football Focus also keeps track of a stat called “defensive stops”, which is a more accurate representation of tackling ability (which involves traits such as vision, pursuit, explosion, and technique) than the more simplistic statistic tackles. Why? Defensive stops are counted when the tackle results in a net “gain” for the defense, so it penalizes players who rack up “garbage” tackles (especially those who play on bad defenses) while rewarding players who make more important/difficult tackles.

Mack has 28 run stops, and, as a percentage of his total snaps on run defense, his Run Stop% is by far the highest among other 3-4 outside linebackers. I mean, he’s so dominant in run defense that it isn’t even close, and there are only five 4-3 outside linebackers with a better Run Stop% from PFF.

Aaron Donald has been equally as impressive as Khalil Mack so far this season, because he’s also dominated in run defense and has, as expected, been a huge force as a pass rusher. Donald’s prowess against the run is surprising, because he was criticized for his lack of size and deemed a potential liability against the run. While Donald has dispelled those criticisms, Mack didn’t need to quell any critiques of his run defense, because most people predicted that he would dominate in that regard; I don’t think anyone has been disappointed by him this season, and I think he’s only surpassed people’s expectations of him in the running game.

Mack is arguably the front-runner for the “Rookie of the Year” award, but it’s an incredibly close race with Watkins, Beckham Jr., Donald, and Cleveland Browns OL Joel Bitonio right in the mix. There’s no doubt that this is one of the most exciting award races, and there’s also no doubt that Mack gives the Raiders something to hang their hats on. In my opinion, they have the best rookie, as well as the best rookie quarterback. And one more thing: I think Mack is already the best player on the Raiders, and it isn’t even close.