Green Bay Packers Would Miss Playoffs if Season Ended Today
The Green Bay Packers have won five of their last six, are being led by an MVP-caliber Quarterback, and sit seventh in the NFC playoff race. That’s right, if the season were to end today, the Packers would miss the playoffs, losing a tie-breaker with the Seattle Seahawks for the second and final Wild Card position in the NFC.
The Detroit Lions lead the Packers in the NFC North by one game, with a 7-2 record compared to Green Bay’s 6-3. The Lions have strung together an incredible streak of improbable 4th-Quarter victories, many without their star WR Calvin Johnson, and their success may be sustainable. Most important of all, Detroit holds the head-to-head tie-breaker over Green Bay in the division with their 19-7 victory in Week 3.
Week 17’s matchup with Detroit at Lambeau Field could decide the NFC North, but Green Bay will need to make up ground before then. Hypothetically, if the Packers are able to stay within one game of Detroit by season’s end, even a victory may not be enough.
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Beating Detroit in the season’s final game would produce a head-to-head record of 1-1, which would move the NFL to the second tie-breaker, which is the team’s divisional win percentage. Detroit currently sits at 2-0, with Green Bay at 3-1. Following that, the league would move to the team’s win percentages in common games.
The easiest way for the Green Bay Packers to avoid this complicated web of technicalities is to simply pull even, and enter Week 17 with the same (or better) record than Detroit, producing a win-and-in situation that the Packers would likely be favoured in at home.
Now, what if the division slides away from the Packers? Green Bay has games remaining against the Eagles, Vikings, Patriots, Falcons, Bills, Buccaneers and Lions, many of which present a challenge. If the NFC North is no longer an option, Green Bay still faces a challenge for the final NFC Wild Card spot.
The Dallas Cowboys (7-3) and Seattle Seahawks (6-3) currently own the Wild Cards. In the Wild Card race, the first two tie-breakers are: (1) Head to head record, if applicable. (2) Winning percentage in games played within the conference.
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The Seahawks hold the early edge with their Week 1 victory over the Packers, and currently have a slight edge over Green Bay in terms of in-conference winning percentage, as well. This points to the Dallas Cowboys being a more likely target, with Seattle showing signs of rounding into form and powering down the stretch.
Dallas will face the Philadelphia Eagles twice over their next four games, along with a game against Andrew Luck and the Indianapolis Colts. Their half-game lead on the Packers is made more achievable by their identical 4-3 record within the NFC.
Looking behind them, the Packers are not being heavily trailed in what has developed into a thin NFC Wild Card race. The San Francisco 49ers rank 8th at 5-4, followed by, believe it or not, the 4-5 Minnesota Vikings.
Week 12 is too early to begin forecasting what needs to happen for the involved teams. The Lions are heading into a tough two-game stretch against the Cardinals and Patriots, Adrian Peterson could be re-instated in time to run over the Packers in two weeks, or Dallas could fall completely off the map after a surprise start. Heading into Week 14, the playoff picture should gain clarity for Green Bay.
With Aaron Rodgers at the helm, their playoff chances still seem more likely than not, but in a season where the improbable has happened on a weekly basis, the Packers face an uphill and uncertain path to January.