3 reasons why Dallas Cowboys in prime position to make a Super Bowl run

Entering this season, most people agreed that the Dallas Cowboys were not going to be very good this year. Sean Lee tore his ACL in June, Romo had back surgery over the offseason and Rolando McClain, who at this point hadn´t played a regular season game in a few years, was looking like he had a good shot at being a starting linebacker. Most experts predicted that the best case scenario for the Cowboys was 8-8 and worst case was around 3-13 or 4-12. Even after the week one loss at home vs. San Francisco, things were not looking all to good. After that the Cowboys beat two bad teams and 8-8 was looking quite likely. In week four, everything changed as the Saints came to Dallas needing a win, and the Cowboys dominated the entire game, winning by 21.

In Week 5, the Cowboys beat a decent Houston team and then marched into Seattle and shocked America, winning Americas game of the week, against the defending world champion in Seattle. They extended their win streak to 6 the next week and then the week after Romo got injured in the division battle against Washington. Romo goes on the miss the next game against the Cardinals, in which Brandon Weeden plays completely atrocious leading to a loss. Romo returned in London to handily beating the Jags, leaving us at where we are now at the bye. The Dallas Cowboys are 7-3 and they are set to make a run for the division title and the Super bowl.

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1) When healthy, they have a top 5 offense

The Cowboys offense is about as complete as it gets in the NFL. It is loaded with talent and it showing that on the field. They are in the top ten in the league for points per game and offensive yardage per game. The Cowboys as a team also lead the league in 3rd down efficiency and have the second highest time of possession, which means they can dictate the pace of a game and keep the other team off the field. The key to this dominant offense is Tony Romo. That was very clearly proven in the game vs. Arizona in which Brandon Weeden was just terrible. Romo is easily one of the best ten quarterbacks in the league.

The Cowboys have finally put a good offensive line in front of Romo. The offensive line has really been the difference between this year and the past years. Four of the five starting O-line men were drafted, or Ronald Leary case signed as UDFA, in the last four years. Many of these picks were highly criticized, but they really paid off in the long run. This line allowed DeMarco Murray to break the NFL record for straight 100 yard games. DeMarco Murray is a top 5 running back, but he still could have never broken this record without this line. Too add to that, the young backs have also shown a lot of promise, with the few touches they have been able to get. The last not discussed aspect of the offense are the targets Romo is throwing too.

Dez Bryant is one of the best receivers in the league, and I don’t think anyone will dispute that. Terrance Williams has also really learned and improved, even though he has been used mostly as a deep threat this year. Dwayne Harris and Cole Beasley add decent depth to the Wr position. Then, we still have Jason Witten, who Romo said ” may be the best Cowboy ever.” Witten continues to excel at his position, being both a superb blocker and a great receiver. To sum it up, the Cowboys have a top 10 QB, a Top 5 RB, a Top 5 WR, a Top 5-10 TE and arguably the best offensive line. This offense is rolling and barring injury, will continue to do so with a lot of talent.

2) The defense has not lived up to expectations, by being far better than anyone ever expected them to

This defense was expected to be one of the worst if not the worst in the NFL, especially after Sean Lee went down. This has not been the case. Dallas has had an average defense, if not even above average. Based one the statistics, this defense doesn´t do many things very well. According to Sportingcharts.com, opposing Quarterbacks have an above average completion percentage against them, opposing running back have an above average yards per attempt, they are in the bottom ten for sacks and they are barely average when it comes to third down.

Still, this defense gives up the 10th least points per game, and their average pass yards per game and average rush yards per game are also above average. This can be attributed to the time of the possession of the offense. Another interesting statistic is that the Cowboys are actually 4th in opponents scoring efficiency, which is a bit surprising based on other statistics, but it is a major reason of success of this defense.

The surprising success of the defense, has come on the back of surprising play of a variety of players. Getting pressure on the quarterback was a major worry for the Cowboys, and while sacks have still be quite rare, Jeremy Mincey has impressed and is tied for 7th in the league in Qb hurries. Tyrone Crawford has also brought a lot of pressure on the QB and has had a very impressive year so far.

The biggest surprise for the defense has been Rolando McClain. I don´t think anyone had high expectations in him, but he has actually been a solid middle linebacker. He will have even more responsibility, as Justin Durant, a defensive captain and linebacker, tore his bicep and will be out for the rest of the season. This will be one of the biggest issues for the Cowboys, and it will be interesting to see if others can step up to fill the void. The secondary has also been surprisingly good.

Many hoped that Morris Claiborne would be able to help the secondary, but he actually played quite poorly before tearing his ACL. Instead Orlando Scandrick, the player Claiborne was benched for, is 8th of all corners in advanced football analytics win probability added statistic. The entire secondary has played quite well as whole. Another team statistic, that Dallas excels in is yards allowed after the catch, which balances out the high completion percentage allowed to opposing quarterbacks. This defense needs to keep up its average, to give this team a chance to win. Rod Marinelli has really had a tough task as defensive coordinator, but has done a great job and has really had a lot success through different blitz schemes.

3) Injuries to other contenders and a simpler schedule

The two most important games for the Dallas Cowboys are going to be against the Philadelphia Eagles, because the key to make a deep playoff run is trying to win the division and get home field advantage. This is why the Eagles games are must win games. If they split, the eagles will probably have the tie-breaker because they will then have a better divisional record, unless they get upset by Washington or the Giants, which could happen since they play both those teams on the road .

The Cowboys do have a much easier schedule than the Eagles, so if the Cowboys can beat the Eagles twice, the division is theres. The key for Philly is going to Mark Sanchez. I have seen Sanchez be completely atrocious in New York in so many games, that I don´t have much faith in him. He will benefit from the Chip Kelly system, but he isn´t good enough to lead a team. If they can win the division, the one seed is up for grabs. A 12-4 record is realistic possibility for the Cowboys, because outside of the eagles, the only good team they play are the Colts and that game is at home.

I think it is unrealistic to think that the Cardinals will hold on to the Nr.1 seed in the NFC. Carson Palmer is out for the year, and while Drew Stanton has proven he can win, he has also proven that he can barely complete 50 percent of his passes. The Cardinals still face a lot of good teams like Detroit, Kansas City, San Fransisco and Seattle twice. The Cardinals will be lucky if they come away with the division. If the Cowboys face the Cardinals in the playoffs, they should be very optimistic since they played a close game against them without Tony Romo, while the Cardinals still had Carson Palmer. The Seahawks are also a possible Nr.1 seed team, but that is more unlikely than the Cardinals, as their schedule is ridiculously difficult, and I think they will be lucky if they make the playoffs, especially with lack of wide receivers and the injury to Brandon Mebane.

Now we are left with the NFC North, because everyone knows the South won´t be a threat to the No.1 seed. Detroit has a tough schedule and I think they are bound to drop at least two more, because they have to travel to both Gillette stadium and Lambeau fields, and both those teams are notorious for winning at home. If they can win all the other games, they have a chance for the No.1 seed. I think the team that everyone must look out for are the Green Bay Packers. While the Packers do play difficult games, they have almost all of them at home, as they host Philadelphia, New England and Detroit. The only remotely difficult game on the road will be vs. Buffalo. If the Packers get the No.1 seed, they will be hard to beat in the playoffs. This is the team the Cowboys need to watch out for, because beating Aaron Rodgers is tough enough, but beating him in Lambeau is almost impossible.

Because of the injury to Nick Foles, I think the Cowboys have a good shot at beating out the Eagles, and if they do it will be a race down to the end for the Nr.1 seed which will be very valuable. If the Cowboys don´t win the division, it will probably mean a nr.5 seed and a trip to New Orleans, which could spell an early end for Super Bowl dreams. The Cowboys are a very good team this year, that has dominated a Seahawks team in Seattle, has crushed the New Orleans Saints and really played a very good game against Arizona, if you don´t include Brandon Weeden. They are ready for a super bowl run, and once you get there, nobody knows whats going to happen.

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