The San Francisco 49ers suffered an embarrassing defeat at the hands of the rival Seattle Seahawks last night, and what should have been a night-time Thanksgiving Day treat of a game turned into a feast for Richard Sherman and the “Legion of Boom”. Colin Kaepernick was the main course, and my timeline on Twitter was constantly filled with tweets berating the star QB, who was once viewed as being a potential top-ten player at the position. He’s obviously the big talking point after last night’s game, and while he was absolutely dreadful, it’s important to be as measured as possible in the aftermath of last night’s debacle (it’s just too easy to add to the dirt).
1. Colin Kaepernick By the Numbers
Honestly, the best place to start is by looking at the raw numbers, and Kaepernick is in the midst of his worst season with an average of 7.3 yards per attempt, eight interceptions (already matching last season’s total), and a 61.2% completion percentage. His lower yards per attempt and increased picks are telling, but it’s interesting to note that his completion percentage is on par with his career averages, and he’s averaging more yards per game due to the increased passing attempts. What’s worrisome, though, is the fact that Kaepernick has taken steps back despite getting much better weapons around him, and he hasn’t shown any growth mentally here in the third seasons of his career. Statistically, though, Kaep isn’t doing too badly, since his Y/A is respectable, his completion percentage is fair, and his TD:INT ratio isn’t bad either.
That said, he’s being paid like a “very good” QB and should be at the level, but he is merely playing at an average level. Kaepernick has also been very inconsistent this season, because he’s had five games (nearly half) in which his completion percentage has been under 60%, and he’s averaged eight yards per attempt or more on just three occasions; he isn’t having enough big games to make up for the subpar ones.
2. Do Michael Crabtree and Vernon Davis deserve more of the blame?
In the 2012 season, Michael Crabtree was one of the most impressive wide receivers in the NFL, and he clearly developed a great rapport with Kaepernick, whose play improved markedly when Crabtree returned to the team from a serious injury last season. But this year, Crabtree has looked like a “sorry” receiver- to steal from Sherman- and hasn’t been used as often as we expected. While Anquan Boldin has notched 68 receptions on an even 100 targets (that’s an impressive catch rate), Crabtree is hauling in under 60% of the passes thrown at him and isn’t generating many big plays. He did have one impressive TD against the New York Giants, but that’s been it for Crabtree, whose only noteworthy contributions have been clutch third-down receptions. While he hasn’t been “bad”, he’s underperformed at least as much as his quarterback.
That said, Vernon Davis is clearly the San Francisco 49ers biggest disappointment on offense this season, and his 2014 season has been a far cry from his scintillating 2013 performance, when he was easily one of the NFL’s most efficient pass-catchers. Davis has been anything but reliable or efficient this year, averaging a paltry 4.9 yards per attempt with a 53.9% catch rate and an average of just 9.1 yards per reception. And oh yeah, he’s thrown in six drops for good measure. Honestly, Davis has been so bad that, statistically, the 49ers would be much better off avoiding him. With just 11.2% of the team’s total targets going his direction, he is now the fourth-most targeted player on the team, so it looks like the 49ers are indeed phasing him out of things.
3. So it’s not all on Kaepernick?
Yup, Kaepernick hasn’t been quite as bad as you think, because his supporting cast might be even worse. According to the Pro Football Focus, no quarterback has dealt with more drops than Kaep, as the 49ers pass-catchers have dropped 29 of his attempts. He’s also been pressured on the seventh-highest percentage of his total drop-backs, and the underperformance of his offensive line, pass-catchers, and running game (Frank Gore is bagging just 3.9 yards per carry) have clearly crushed him.
I mean, Kaepernick’s own numbers haven’t even been all that bad. His 87.8 QB Rating isn’t anything to make fun of, and his ESPN TQBR is above the average mark of “50”. There’s no doubt that he’s made his fair share of mistakes and isn’t playing well this season, but I don’t understand why more people aren’t directing their criticism at other players. Where has Davis been this season? Why is Jonathan Martin even in a position to be the direct backup at an offensive tackle spot? Kaepernick deserves to be criticized, but I think it’s important to keep things in context by looking at the performance of the whole team.
4. Assessing Chris Borland
There are very few players in the NFL who are more active than San Francisco 49ers linebacker Chris Borland, because he always seems to be flying to the ball and continues to receive comparisons to former Miami Dolphins legend Zach Thomas. Borland notched 16 tackles and an additional tackle for loss, with all of his tackles being solo. That said, PFF also tracked him with three missed tackles, and that’s the second straight week he has notched that total after previously not missing tackles for several weeks. Despite the mistakes Borland made, I still love that he was hustling to the ball, and I think you are always going to miss tackles whenever going up against Marshawn Lynch, and he’s made defensive players look more silly than that.
What are Borland’s chances of winning the DROY? I think his case is a strong as anybody’s, but it’s such a tight race. Khalil Mack, Aaron Donald, and Anthony Barr have also been excellent this season, with Barr clearly shattering my expectations of him. Mack has been my No. 1 guy for most of the season, but Borland is hotter than any rookie right now, while Donald is quietly beasting. My top three is Mack, Borland, and Donald, but that’s not in any particular order; they seem to be interchangeable.
5. Aaron Lynch on a quiet roll
Borland has been the 49ers most impressive rookie on defense, but Aaron Lynch is also making good on the faith that Jim Harbaugh and the coaching staff placed in him. Lynch’s athletic ability and physical tools have never been put into question, but his future fit in the NFL, maturity, and drive were all questionable, and this led him to fall to the later rounds of the draft. Well, Lynch has been a standout outside linebacker, and he notched a sack, an additional QB hit, and five tackles (all solo) last night against the Seahawks. The San Francisco 49ers are loaded at all of the linebacker spots, and Lynch is one of those impressive beasts. He now has a sack in each of his past three games, and he’s quietly owning the edge.