Green Bay Packers: The Sky is Falling, but Should it Be?

The Green Bay Packers had their playoff fate in the palms of their hands on Sunday, and like most of the passes from Aaron Rodgers that afternoon, they dropped it. Green Bay now faces doubt and questioning following a 21-13 loss to the Buffalo Bills in which they looked out of sync, overmatched and frustrated.

With a 3-4 road record, the Green Bay Packers have struggled to solve opposing defenses away from Lambeau Field, which could pose a huge problem if they are forced to travel in Round 1 of the NFL Playoffs, especially to an opponent like the Seattle Seahawks.

As Sunday’s game slipped away from the Packers, eventually ending with a fumble resulting in a safety, the ever-patient and almighty world of Twitter-opinion was quick to write off Green Bay as a soft team who would fall flat in round one of the playoffs. In a matter of 30 minutes, Aaron Rodgers foolishly went from MVP favorite to overrated. I understand the emotion behind both sentiments, but both are knee-jerk reactions to a sport that is so often dominated by a recency bias.

The recency bias here discredits 14 weeks of Packers’ football due to 60 minutes of bad (OK, downright terrible) play. This is not the MLB or NHL, where a team can get shut down 5 games in a row and remain among the league’s elite. In the NFL, a team is only as good as their last game, which is rarely an accurate measure.

For a quick case study, look back to 2011, where the 15-1 Green Bay Packers were nearly untouchable all season long and were a heavy Super Bowl favorite. Securing the NFC’s #1 seed, the Packers lost to the New York Giants immediately in the Divisional round.

Then look one year prior, where a Green Bay Packers’ team limped into the NFL Playoffs at 10-6, with the #6 seed and 16 players on Injured Reserve. Green Bay would go on to win the Super Bowl.

In no way will I argue that Sunday’s egg-laying against the Buffalo Bills should be ignored, but I find it short-sighted and reactionary to dismiss this team with such certainty and conviction based on one game. The NFL is professional sports’ most unpredictable league on a week-to-week basis. Remember late September, when Tom Brady was finished and taking the New England Patriots with him?

Still, the Green Bay Packers cannot afford to play anywhere near that level again if they hope to make anything of this season. The receiving corps recorded seven drops on the day, the most by one team this season in the NFL. Jordy Nelson‘s drop hurt most of all, as he saw a strong chance at a 94-yard TD bounce off the centre of his hands.

Special Teams also continue to be a sore spot for Green Bay, as the Buffalo Bills returned a 75-yard punt for a Touchdown and blocked a kick from Mason Crosby. This makes 6 blocked kicks on the season against the Packers (2 punts, 2 XP, 2 FG). Allowing an impact play such as that in the playoffs can, and likely will, end their season prematurely.