Which Team Will Win The AFC North? The NFL’s Most Exciting Divisional Race Heats Up

If the 2014 regular season ended today the the AFC North would send a mind-boggling three teams to the playoffs (Cincinnati, Pittsburgh and Baltimore). No other division in football is even close to getting three teams into the postseason. This division is absolutely stacked with quality teams and interesting story lines, I mean the Browns are technically still in the hunt, too. The top three teams in this division certainly could all end up in the playoffs, but only one can win the division and host at least one playoff game.

The Cincinnati Bengals are currently in first place (9-4-1) and up a half game over the Steelers and Ravens thanks to a tie earlier in the season. There simply isn’t a more exciting or hotly contested divisional playoff race in football, so this division will receive much attention until the playoffs begin.

These last two weeks are going to be a treat to watch, especially since the NFL changed all Week 17 games to be divisional match-ups. But who will win this division? Lets breakdown this question into a few categories and see which team rises to the top.

The AFC North Ranked By Momentum

I wanted to rank these four teams by how they have been playing in recent weeks. There is no perfect predictor for the future, but how each team has been playing lately should give us somewhat of a clue.

4.Cleveland Browns (1-3, best win: 26-24 over Atlanta)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (3-1, best win: 30-0 over Cleveland)
2. Baltimore Ravens (3-1, best win: 34-27 over New Orleans)
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (3-1, best win: 42-21 over Cincinnati)

This exercise only demonstrated that this divisional race is closer than we thought. Not only are the top three teams bunched closely together, they’re all playing great football as of late. Even though the Bengals, Ravens and Steelers were ranked from 3 to 1, they’re essentially all tied for number one. Although Pittsburgh’s divisional win over the Bengals is what pushed it to No. 1 and Cincinnati’s in-division loss to Pittsburgh is what dropped it to No. 3.

The AFC North Ranked By Easiest Remaining Schedule

OK, so ranking the teams by momentum in recent weeks didn’t do anything to solve which team will win the division. So lets take a look at each team’s upcoming schedule. Which team has the easiest two weeks left and which team has the hardest two weeks remaining? We’ve ranked them for you to see which team has the easiest road.

4. Cincinnati Bengals (Week 16: host Denver, Week 17: at Pittsburgh)
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (Week 16: host Kansas City, Week 17: host Cincinnati)
2. Cleveland Browns (Week 16: at Carolina, Week 17: at Baltimore)
1. Baltimore Ravens (Week 16: at Houston, Week 17: host Cleveland)

The Ravens have the easiest last two weeks because they travel to face a 7-7 team and then host the AFC North’s weakest team. The Browns have two road games, but the Panthers are only 5-8 on the season. Pittsburgh hosts a Kansas City team that is fighting for a playoff spot and then gets to host the huge match-up with the Bengals. Cincinnati has a very tough two weeks ahead of it. Denver is one of the NFL’s best teams and Pittsburgh is 4-2 at home this year.

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The AFC North Ranked By Offense

Since these teams are all so close in record and performance this year I wanted to look at which teams have the best collective offenses. Factoring in both passing and running equally we ranked the AFC North by best offenses.

4. Cleveland Browns (18th in passing yards, 18th in rushing yards)
3. Cincinnati Bengals (23rd in passing yards, 6th in rushing yards)
2. Baltimore Ravens (14th in passing yards, 5th in rushing yards)
1. Pittsburgh Steelers (2nd in passing yards, 10th in rushing yards)

As you can see the Steelers boast the most well-balanced (and lethal) offense in the AFC North. But honestly the Ravens are not far behind at all. There is a bit of a drop off with the Bengals and again with the Browns. In today’s NFL defenses do still win championships, but the offense has to be pretty successful, too.

The AFC North Ranked By Defense

So we can see that the Steelers own the division’s top offense thanks in large part to it’s dynamic trio of running back Le’Veon Bell, wide receiver Antonio Brown and quarterback Ben Roethlisberger. But which AFC North team has the best defense? We’ll look at how many points each team lets up per game to decide this category.

4. Pittsburgh Steelers (24.2 points per game allowed)
3. Cleveland Browns (21.4 points per game allowed)
2. Cincinnati Bengals (20.6 points per game allowed)
1. Baltimore Ravens (19.1 points per game allowed)

These results were quite interesting, although it should be noted that no team in the AFC North possesses a bad defense by any stretch of the imagination. For people claiming that points allowed isn’t a solid indicator of how good a defense is, the Ravens also lead the division in yards given up per game (344.2). Clearly Baltimore has the best defense in the division.

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Which Team Will Win The AFC North?

In my brain there are only two contenders, despite the fact that Cincinnati is currently in first place. The winner of the AFC North will be either Pittsburgh or Baltimore. Both have Super Bowl winning quarterbacks at the helm (Joe Flacco and Roethlisberger) and both utilize similar philosophies on how to play the game — a balanced offense and a hard-nosed defense.

Pittsburgh has the most momentum by the slimmest of margins (due to the win over the Bengals), but Baltimore has the easiest remaining schedule. The Steelers boast the best offense, but the Ravens have the best defense in the division. These two teams split their two contests this year going 1-1 against each other, both winning at home. This divisional race is extremely hard to call, but I have my answer…

The Baltimore Ravens will win the 2014 AFC North division crown.

I say this despite the fact that the Ravens are so comparable to the Steelers it really is incredibly hard to tell which team is better. But the Ravens have an easier schedule and that is what will lead them to the division win. The Bengals are in first place right now, but they have to play a much harder last two games than the Ravens. Baltimore gets their last game at home against the division’s weakest opponent (Cleveland) and they’ll secure the division with a big win in front of their home crowd.

Who doesn’t love this time of year?

Next: 5 Reasons Why The AFC North Is The Best Division In The NFL