Will National Championship Loss Cost Marcus Mariota on Draft Day?
Oregon’s Heisman winning quarterback Marcus Mariota had a typical game by his statistical standards in the National Championship against Ohio State. The fourth-year junior completed 24 of 37 passes for 333 yards and two scores while also picking up 39 yards on the ground. However, Mariota’s efforts were not enough as his Ducks were beaten soundly 42-20 in a game that the Buckeyes controlled from start to finish. That being said, is this disappointing loss enough for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers to look elsewhere with the number one overall pick?
Granted, there were many things that went wrong for Oregon that were out of Mariota’s control. Losing receiver Darren Carrington before the game due to a drug suspension was one of them. Ohio State’s sophomore halfback Ezekiel Elliott rushing for a National Championship Game record 246 yards and four TD’s was another. But going just 2 of 12 on third down conversion attempts and managing just one touchdown in four red zone trips can certainly be attributed to the offense. Aside from Mariota’s 70-yard scoring pass to Byron Marshall, the standout passer looked fairly mortal to me for much of the night.
Assuming Mariota does declare for the NFL draft, the major knock against him is that he is a “system” passer. In other words, Oregon’s success of offense is based around their hurry up style of play and deceptive zone-read rushing attack rather than Mariota’s pure talent. To some degree, those doubts about Mariota’s skill level and arm talent reared its ugly head against Ohio State. Dropped passes had much to do with Oregon’s struggles on third down, but it also seemed that Mariota had his share of inaccuracy on third and long situations as well.
Mariota can hit wide open targets like Marshall streaking down the middle of the field, but he has yet to prove that he can consistently make stick throws against tight coverage on third down. In addition to the growing questions about his talents, Mariota will now have to answer questions about his health as he had to briefly leave the National Championship Game in the fourth quarter due to an apparent injury of his right shoulder.
The Bucs are in desperate need of a franchise quarterback and may very well have two Heisman winners to choose from. While this may be a difficult choice from an evaluation standpoint, at least Tampa Bay will be more protected financially than teams in past drafts. Because of the NFL’s new collective bargaining agreement which was signed in 2011, the league has put a cap on spending for first round draft talent.
Teams can now draft the most expensive position on the field with reduced fear of bust potential. In other words, even if Tampa Bay swings and misses with Mariota or last year’s Heisman winning passer Jameis Winston, it won’t be nearly as costly of a mistake as number one overall picks JaMarcus Russell and Sam Bradford were to their teams. The dollar amount that Mariota and Winston end up with will pail in comparison to the $32 million signing bonus that Russell inked in 2007 and the $50 million signing bonus that Bradford received in 2010.
Both Mariota and Winston have much more upside than any quarterback on Tampa Bay’s current roster. However, both have legitimate concerns that may lead the Buccaneers to balk at their services. Going into the game against Ohio State, I thought a masterful performance from Mariota could have cemented his spot at the top of the draft. Mariota still may end up being the number one overall pick, but by no means will his selection be a slam dunk.