The last time the Indianapolis Colts and New England Patriots met (week 11 of the regular season) their defense pressured Brady into throwing 2 INTs early in the game, but were unable to stop Jonas Gray from logging 37 carries for 201 yards and 4 scores. Even more disappointingly, Indy’s running backs at the time, Ahmad Bradshaw and Trent Richardson combined for a total of 4 yards on 13 carries.
A lot has changed for Indianapolis since that game: the defense has come together and is playing much better against the run, holding the Bengals red hot rookie running back Jeremy Hill to under 4 yards per carry in the wild card round, and keeping the hard running C.J. Anderson under 100 yards in the divisional round.
More importantly though, they have found success running the ball with Dan Herron, who entered the season as the teams 4th option at running back, but really started to come into his own down the stretch. Herron managed just 2.7 yards per carry in the divisional round with a long run of 8 yards against the stout Broncos run defense, but his ability to pick up tough yards on early downs and keep the Colts offense on the field was a big part of ensuring the win. Herron touched the ball on 30 of the Colts 71 offensive plays (adding 8 catches for 32 yards to his 23 carries.)
Through 2 playoff games Herron has 52 total touches for 231 yards and 2 TDs and has lead the team in receptions in both games. But don’t think Herron’s increased usage hasn’t gone unnoticed by Patriots coach Bill Belichick: “I think that’s his role as a three-down player — blitz pickup, passing game and obviously the running game. He’s given them a big lift there.”
While much of the pre-game focus will be on the matchup of Luck vs. Brady, the real key to beating the Patriots this season has been establishing a running game.
New England finished the 2014 regular season with at top 10 run defense, with a record of 9-1 when they held their opponents to fewer than 100 total rushing yards, (the one loss was in week 17 against the Bills when New England rested many of it’s starters) but their record dropped to 3-3 against teams who passed the century mark on the ground. Two of the three wins were narrow victories against the Jets (27-25 in week 7 and 17-16 in week 16) and the last was the week 8 blowout of the Chicago Bears when Brady threw 5 TDs.
Jan 4, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back Dan Herron (36) is congratulated by quarterback Andrew Luck (12) after scoring a touchdown against the Cincinnati Bengals in the first quarter in the 2014 AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Lucas Oil Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports
The Colts have made it through much of the season without having to rely on the running game, but they are 7-1 including the two playoff wins in games where Herron touches the ball at least 10 times and gains at least 40 yards. The lone loss being the 42-7 blowout loss to Dallas in which Herron has exactly 10 touches for 40 yards, but only 3 of them came on the ground.
While Herron’s numbers don’t pop off the page, his physical running style brings balance to the pass heavy Indianapolis offense, and allows Andrew Luck to keep the entire playbook open.
With T.Y. Hilton likely to be shadowed by Darrelle Revis and Brandon Browner jamming whichever receiver he winds up across from Herron establishing a physical presence in the run game will be crucial to setting up play action, and drawing safeties into the box, hopefully softening the coverage on the Colts pair of playmaking tight ends, Dwayne Allen and Coby Fleener.
The strength of this Colts team is that they have so many weapons, and so many ways they can beat you, but it all starts with Dan Herron. If he gets rolling early, you absolutely have to account for him, and not just on running plays, as we saw against the Bengals (10 reception on 11 targets for 85 yards), he’s got soft hands coming out of the backfield and you don’t want to leave him with open space.
Without a competent run game, especially early, drives stall, your defense doesn’t get to rest and typically has to work with bad field position, and you run the risk of falling behind early and you get get results like the week 11 loss to this same Patriots team and week 16’s aforementioned loss to the Cowboys. Herron is the key to the Colts offensive engine, his performance will decide if it runs smoothly, or stalls out.