2015 NFL Season Predictions: AFC South Preview

Jun 9, 2015; Indianapolis, IN, USA; Indianapolis Colts running back

(23) catches a pass during minicamp at the Indiana Farm Bureau Football Center. Mandatory Credit: Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports

Indianapolis Colts: 

Key Additions: RB Frank Gore, WR Andre Johnson, WR Vincent Brown, G Todd Herremans, DT Kendall Langford, MLB Nate Irving, OLB Trent Cole, FS Dwight Lowery, WR Phillip Dorsett 

The Colts added quite a few players this offseason and some of them used to be very high-caliber players, but noticed the words used to be. I think Frank Gore is a very good addition by the Colts. He has run for over 1000 yards eight out of his last nine seasons and he will establish a solid run game for the Colts. Johnson is someone who I don’t think will have as much of an impact as people may hope.

He isn’t the same player he was in his prime. He is 33 years old and seems to be slowing down. Brown is player who will be lucky if he makes the team. Herremans is a decent lineman who looks like he will get a chance to start at right guard for the Colts next season and might be able to strength the O-line a bit.

On defense is where the Colts really disappointed during the offseason. Their offense wasn’t really the big problem last year, but still they focused on that during free agency and the draft. Adding Langford won’t be enough to stop the Patriots from simply running the ball through the Colts defense once again.

Cole is aging and might not even start and Nate Irving won’t start next season either so they really simply added depth at the linebacker position. Lowery is coming from a terrible Atlanta Falcons secondary, so the Colts must hope that his play will improve in comparison to last years. The holes on defense really make me question the Colts drafting Dorsett, who is talented but not needed.

Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts wide receiver

(87) against the Denver Broncos in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Key Losses: RB Ahmad Bradshaw, WR Reggie Wayne,DE Cory Redding, FS Sergio Brown 

The Colts really didn’t lose many important players at all. When healthy Bradshaw was a very effective running back, but he is never healthy, and Frank Gore is a better running back anyways. Letting Wayne go must have hurt, but he simply isn’t good enough, especially not for their stacked receiving corps.

Redding is the player that probably hurts most, as he had a great 2014 season. Still he is aging and the Colts let him go, but other players will have to step up and fill the void. Brown is a capable safety but nothing special and I don’t see a big difference between his skill level and that of Lowery, so this loss won’t hurt too much.

Verdict: 

The Colts did once again improve, that is out of the question, but what I question is if they improved in the right places? Having the targets Hilton, Johnson, Moncrief, Dorsett, Fleener and Allen obviously is going to be great for Luck and almost uncoverable for opposing secondaries, but offense alone doesn’t win football games. They will likely also have a bit more of a balanced attack next year which makes the offense even deadlier. So barring injury this offense could be insanely good and put up monster numbers.

The defense is where the danger is. If Robert Mathis can get back to his old shape after injury, he will be a major help for the Colts. Still the middle is quite soft and likely will give up another 200 rushing yards against the Patriots if tested, simply because nothing changed. Their secondary is okay. Vontae Davis is a top 8 cornerback in the NFL and really helps them, but after him, they really aren’t that good either. If I were the Colts I would have invested a lot more into this defense during the offseason and less into the already very good offense, but maybe it will work out.

Predictions: 

Jan 11, 2015; Denver, CO, USA; Indianapolis Colts cornerback

(21) reacts against the Denver Broncos in the 2014 AFC Divisional playoff football game at Sports Authority Field at Mile High. The Colts defeated the Broncos 24-13. Mandatory Credit: Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Best Case Record: 14-2

Worst Case Record: 11-5

Prediction: 13-3

Team’s Offensive MVP: QB Andrew Luck

Team’s Defensive MVP: CB Vontae Davis

Rookie Standout: CB D’Joun Smith 

This is the best chance the Colts are going to get to win a championship. Andrew Luck is still on his cheap rookie contract, they have the second easiest schedule out of all teams in the NFL and their team is pretty good. The Colts always take care of business against the middle of the pack and worse teams, but they haven’t beaten a lot of good teams under Andrew Luck.

Best case scenario is that they go 6-0 in the division and tear through the NFC South and then drop two games against the AFC East, Pittsburgh or Denver. Worst case is that their defense is pretty bad and Luck gets stopped by the great defenses in the AFC East and they lose most of their games against the quality teams. Still I think the Colts are basically guaranteed being 10-0 against their own division and the NFC South.

Next: Standings and Conclusion