2015 NFL Predictions: NFC South in-depth preview

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May 28, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints running back C.J. Spiller (28) during organized team activities at the New Orleans Saints Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /

New Orleans Saints:

Key Additions: RB C.J. Spiller, C Max Unger,ILB Dannell Ellerbe, OLB Anthony Spencer, CB Brandon Browner, T Andrus Peat

By adding Spiller the Saints added a dynamic back that has some receiving ability as well. He will be a good change of pace to Ingram. Unger is a very good center that the Saints added and he should really solidify the line and with the addition of Peat the line might actually become quite good.

The Saints received Ellerbe in a trade that still boggles my mind a bit. Ellerbe can be a good inside linebacker if he recovers from his injury well. Spencer has had some injury issues in recent years and even when on the field he wasn’t the same player last year, but the Saints hope that changes. Browner is a big corner who is a good No.2 corner, but needs safety help over the top, as he is easily burned.

Jul 31, 2015; Renton, WA, USA; Seattle Seahawks tight end Jimmy Graham (88) participates in a drill during training camp practice at Virginia Mason Athletic Center. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-USA TODAY Sports /

Key Losses: RB Pierre Thomas, WR Kenny Stills, TE Jimmy Graham, NT Tyrunn Walker, ILB Curtis Lofton, CB Patrick Robinson

It was time for New Orleans to let Thomas go as he is getting older and simply wasn’t needed as much anymore. Stills was traded to Miami greatly hurting their WR corps as it now really lacks some skill and especially depth. Trading Graham made even less sense to me that trading Stills.

When healthy Graham is the second best TE in the game and Drew Brees‘s No.1 target. Losing both of them will cripple the offense. Walker was an at best average NT that won’t be missed much. Letting Lofton go was simply another questionable move by the Saints and he was consistently getting at least 125 tackles a year though his cap hit was $9 million. Robinson had a solid year last year, but Browner is a suitable replacement.

Jun 17, 2015; New Orleans, LA, USA; New Orleans Saints quarterback Drew Brees (9) during minicamp at the New Orleans Saints Training Facility. Mandatory Credit: Derick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports /

Verdict:

With Drew Brees the Saints will always have a chance even though his last season wasn’t his best. The problem is that he is running out of decent targets. His top targets are an aging, but still pretty good, Colston, a young and promising Brandin Cooks, Nick Toon and Ben Watson as a starting tight end. It is not a very bold prediction to say the Brees will likely miss Graham and Stills. Their running game should be quite good due to Spiller, Ingram, Robinson and a good offensive line. The revamped line should help both the passing game and the running game a lot, as it was an issue in past years.

The defensive will likely have a tough year. The defensive line is okay with Bunkley, Hicks and Jordon being a decent front three. Their linebacker corps will likely feature Kikaha and Spencer at OLB and Ellerbe and Hawthorne in the middle. If Jordon can get back to the form they had in 2013, this defense might not be that bad, but if he doesn’t they will have trouble getting to the passer.

The combination of Ellerbe and Hawthone in the middle simply isn’t very good and one will notice the absence of Lofton. The secondary might be the best part of the defense. Lewis is a pretty good No.1 cornerback and Browner is a good No.2, if you have good safeties, and I would consider Vaccaro and Byrd to be one of the best safety duos in the NFL.

The Saints seem to be steering more towards a run first offense in which they are looking to take some pressure off of Brees. Still another reason they had to get rid of some of their key players is very poor cap management. Trading away Graham for Unger not only cost them their best offensive player outside of Brees, but also $9 million dollars in dead cap that they still have to pay Graham. While I realize picks were involved, the move doesn’t make sense.

Trading Stills doesn’t make sense at all as he is on a insanely cheap rookie contract and Ellerbe isn’t that good of a player, especially when one could have just made a bigger effort to keep Lofton. Lofton is a very good ILB and while his cap hit was large, they are also paying him $5 million in dead cap. The Saints got worse and management is to blame.

Dec 28, 2014; Tampa, FL, USA; New Orleans Saints cornerback Keenan Lewis (28) intercepted the ball during the second half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Raymond James Stadium. New Orleans Saints defeated the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 23-20. Mandatory Credit: Kim Klement-USA TODAY Sports /

Prediction:

Best Case Record: 10-6

Worst Case Record: 4-12

Prediction: 6-10

Team’s Offensive MVP: QB Drew Brees

Team’s Defensive MVP: CB Keenan Lewis

Rookie Standout: OLB Hau’oli Kikaha

On Paper the Saints should win this division, but the NFL isn’t played on paper. After a terrible offseason in which they lost a lot of key players and just loaded up on dead cap the Saints team is still talented. Best case scenario is that the Saints running game has a lot of success allows Bress to torch opposing defenses on play action and they dominate the division. Worst case is that the disappointment continues and the offense can’t get much done because Brees is past his prime and his targets are the worst he ever had. The defense underperforms as well and loss of key talent catches up to the saints.

Next: Can Carolina with the divison again?

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