Seattle Seahawks Schedule Reset: Playoffs fully expected despite slim margin for error

Coming into the season, I thought the Seattle Seahawks would be the unquestioned top dogs in the NFC after winning the conference in back-to-back seasons, but they stumbled to an even 4-4 record in the first half of the season. Their bye this week at the exact mid-point of the campaign here in Week 9, and the second half of the season couldn’t be more critical for a team that has found themselves in the proverbial fork of the road.

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Immediately after the bye, the Seahawks must face the Arizona Cardinals, who currently lead the division and are indisputably one of the best teams in the NFL right now. Their second meeting with the Cardinals could be even more critical, as it will close the book on the 2015 regular season with potential playoff and seeding implications for both sides. Last season, the Seahawks came up huge against the Cards on both occasions, and a sweep would go a long way to locking up a better spot for the ‘Hawks.

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Despite the disappointing start to the season, it’s hard not to have the utmost faith in Pete Carroll and his squad to ultimately pull it together and get the job done. In the past, any questions about the Seahawks have been answered and concerns quelled, and it’s easy to forget that the Seahawks have the NFL’s third-best scoring defense right now with just 17.5 points per game allowed.

Although the Seahawks have been victims of bad luck (they suffered narrow losses to both the undefeated Cincinnati Bengals and Carolina Panthers) and have an elite defense that is as good as ever, nobody is glossing over the fact that they are 25th in the league in scoring offense. Russell Wilson has done everything in his power to keep this offense ticking with an even 8.0 yards per pass attempt and an elite 68.8% completion percentage, but the Seahawks have found it difficult to translate being 11th in the league in yards and fifth in yards per carry into points.

Their yardage and efficiency numbers, combined with their continued success on defense, make it appear clear to me that the Seahawks are headed for a much better second half of the season. The issue is that their schedule will be more difficult. They will get to face the San Francisco 49ers, Baltimore Ravens, and Cleveland Browns, but other challenges beckon.

Facing the Bengals, Panthers, and Green Bay Packers (who were also undefeated until falling to the still-blemishless Denver Broncos in Week 8) isn’t exactly easy, but the Seahawks also got to face the Dallas Cowboys, Chicago Bears, and Detroit Lions outside of their division without a single game against the 6-2 Cards (second in the league in scoring, by the way).

In their next eight games, the Seahawks will have to face the back-on-track Minnesota Vikings and Ben Roethlisberger and the Pittsburgh Steelers outside of their division. That said, they should be fully expected to take care of business against San Francisco and the St. Louis Rams, particularly since the latter side are much less effective when on the road.

The Seahawks cannot afford to go less than 6-2 after this bye week, which means that they can only, for example, afford to lose one game to the Cardinals and another to the Vikings, Steelers, or one of their less decorated opponents.

Nov 1, 2015; Arlington, TX, USA; Seattle Seahawks quarterback Russell Wilson (3) runs past Dallas Cowboys defensive end Greg Hardy (76) during the second half at AT&T Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

I’m not sure if the Seahawks schedule in the second half of the season is easier or more difficult than what they’ve already faced to this point, but what I am sure of is the notion that they won’t be as unlucky. They should be 4.8-3.2 based on the Pythagorean Win-Loss model, which is an indication that their 4-4 record is fluky.

With a fully healthy Marshawn Lynch, a rolling defense that is riding high off of Richard Sherman‘s master-class of a performance against Dez Bryant, an excellent RW3, and bigger games ahead for Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett, the Seahawks are trending “up” again. The bye week couldn’t have come at a better time for Seattle, and I’d say that anything less than a 10-6 finish would be a surprise.

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Unfortunately, I’m not sure if I can give this team more than ten wins in a projection, because the margin for error is so slim. This is a playoff team, but the Cardinals two-game lead puts them in the driver’s seat for the division win and a potential playoff bye (pending what the Panthers and Packers do). It’s hard to rise to the top when there are three teams in the conference with two losses or less, but the Seahawks have more than enough talent to scrounge their way back to a third straight Super Bowl appearance even if they have to start off with a Wild Card game away from the confines of CenturyLink.