St. Louis Rams: Is Todd Gurley the next Adrian Peterson?

St. Louis Rams’ running back Todd Gurley suffered a season ending knee injury which cut short his final collegiate football season. During his intense recovery process, Gurley needed some inspiration in order to stay focused on rehab. He found that inspiring figure in Vikings’ running back Adrian Peterson, who racked up 2,097 rushing yards in 2012 and captured NFL MVP honors after suffering a similar knee injury towards the end of the 2011 season.

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Missing all of training camp and not being on the active roster for the first two games of the regular season, many expected 2015 to be a sort of “red-shirt” season for Gurley following knee surgery. After all, Gurley carried the ball just six times for nine yards in his season debut against Pittsburgh in week three.

Since that point, Gurley has been a man on a mission. The Georgia product was able to rush for at least 125 yards in four consecutive games, and has a current streak of scoring at least one touchdown in three consecutive games. In fact, no running back since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970 has rushed for more yards (566) than Gurley in his first four starts according to Nick Wagoner of ESPN.com.

As fate would have it, Gurley clashed heads with his idol Peterson in week nine of the NFL season. Unfortunately for Gurley, his Rams fell to Peterson’s Vikings in overtime, 21-18. Individually speaking, Gurley’s 89 rushing yards were overmatched by Peterson’s total of 125.

Nov 8, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) carries the ball past Minnesota Vikings cornerback Xavier Rhodes (29) during the fourth quarter at TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Rams 21-18. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

Todd Gurley has played in just six NFL games thus far, a relatively small sample size. However, it is worth noting that in Adrian Peterson’s first six games following knee surgery in 2012, he totaled 499 yards on the ground compared to Gurley’s 664. That being said, can Todd Gurley keep up his torrid pace and outdo Peterson’s remarkable 2012 MVP season?

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I reviewed the coaches film from Gurley’s first four games of this season to find some clues about his abilities and how they compare to Peterson’s. The first thing that jumped out to me is that Gurley still has the tremendous burst that we saw in his college days. To my untrained eye, I could not notice any ill effects from Gurley’s off-season knee surgery.

In watching Peterson’s first few games of the 2012 season, it may have taken Peterson a handful of games before regaining confidence that he could still cut and change direction as quickly as before. As a result, Peterson registered just one 100-yard rushing game in his first six games of 2012. It’s virtually impossible to know for sure, but I suspect Gurley has more confidence in his surgically repaired knee than Peterson did in his knee at the start of his MVP season.

In terms of overall running style, I think Gurley compares well to Peterson. They are both big, strong, physical runners who can elude tacklers with elite agility. Both backs also possess game breaking speed and can take it to the house from anywhere on the field. Physical attributes aside, both runners also have elite vision and instincts. Gurley and Peterson have a knack for finding a small crease and getting as much positive yardage as possible.

Nov 8, 2015; Minneapolis, MN, USA; St. Louis Rams running back Todd Gurley (30) and Minnesota Vikings running back Adrian Peterson (28) talk following the game at TCF Bank Stadium. The Vikings defeated the Rams 21-18. Mandatory Credit: Brace Hemmelgarn-USA TODAY Sports

As a north-south runner, Gurley doesn’t get tackled behind the line of scrimmage too often. The negative runs I saw from Gurley usually occurred because of a missed assignment on the offensive line. I would say the St. Louis Rams’ offensive line is a pretty solid group, but they can get beat every once in a while. However, since Gurley rarely gets moved backwards, his body lean and forward leg drive helps minimize these losses in the backfield. This is also a skill that Peterson has used throughout his illustrious career.

Like all great runners, Gurley is now seeing defenses completely shift their attention to him by using eight and nine defenders near the line of scrimmage. As a countermove against this defensive strategy, Rams’ receiver Tavon Austin will often go in motion, looping around the quarterback. Austin himself has 207 rushing yards and two rushing touchdowns on the season, so defenses have to shift their alignment whenever Austin goes in motion in case he takes the handoff instead.

In a few short weeks, it will be common to see many of the NFL’s top rookies “hit the wall”. Because the NFL season is longer than the college football season, a vast majority of rookies will hit a performance plateau and become less effective down the stretch run. In Gurley’s case, I believe the threat of Austin in the Rams’ running game will help keep Gurley fresh for the long haul.

Sep 20, 2015; Landover, MD, USA; St. Louis Rams wide receiver Tavon Austin (11) runs with the ball against the Washington Redskins in the fourth quarter at FedEx Field. The Redskins won 24-10. Mandatory Credit: Geoff Burke-USA TODAY Sports

As a pass receiver, Gurley appears to be a natural hands catcher and can quickly get up the field after the catch. I would like to eventually see more elaborate routes from Gurley, but I feel that will come in due time. With 13 receptions so far, I think Gurley will be used on a regular basis on third downs as the season moves along.

If Todd Gurley plays all eight remaining games for the Rams and stays on his current pace of 110.6 yards per game, he will end up with roughly 1,549 rushing yards this year. That rushing total would surpass the historic single season rookie numbers of Earl Campbell (1,450) in 1978, Barry Sanders (1,470) in 1989, and even Adrian Peterson (1,341) in 2007.

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While I don’t foresee Gurley rushing for over 2,000 yards and winning NFL MVP this year, I do think he will surpass Peterson’s impressive rookie yardage total. That being said, I think Todd Gurley is a mortal lock for 2015 Offensive Rookie of the Year.