Arizona Cardinals: Carson Palmer and ‘Scripted’ Passing Plays

Peter King of The Monday Morning QB followed the Arizona Cardinals around in the week leading up to their Week 8 matchup with the Cleveland Browns.

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In part one of a two-piece monstrous effort to illuminate just how much work goes into inserting an offensive game-plan in the NFL, he touched on the fact that coach Bruce Arians allows his quarterback, 35-year-old Carson Palmer, to pick the first 15 passing plays of each game.

“I’ll be money on those plays. I’ll know what I’m doing versus every possible…pressure. If we get that pressure, we will gash that. —Carson Palmer

I digested the 4,700-word masterpiece and, being the stats nerd I am, had just one question: What are Palmer’s numbers in those 15 passing plays as opposed to those afterward?

After an hour or so of searching through Arizona’s first nine game books and crunching a whole mess of statistics, I came up with the extensive chart seen below.

From the chart, here are some key points that stick out:

• Palmer completes a higher percentage of passes in “scripted” plays
• His yards-per-attempt average is higher early
• The sack-rate is up—16 pass attempts per sack early as opposed to one every 28 attempts late
• His touchdown percent is up—8.0 percent early and 7.1 percent late
• But so is his interception percent—2.7 percent early and 2.0 percent late
• His passer rating is only a marginal increase early as opposed to late

After soaking in the stats for that hour, I remembered something else from King’s article—something the gifted writer said that I glossed over at first because my mind was so fixated on those first 15 passing plays:

"After Arians IDs the passes he wants in the overall game plan, Palmer walks up to the whiteboard on Friday and puts a star next to the 15 he wants to run first; they become the first 15 passes. Palmer circles four of the 15, and those four become the passes he wants to call first in the game."

That last sentence is what I nearly missed the first time. Palmer picks 15 of his favorite passing plays from the week’s game plan, then he picks his four favorites from those 15. Naturally, I had to know Palmer’s stats from those four plays per game.

The chart follows.

And from that chart, here are some key points:

• Palmer’s completion rate is phenomenal (82.1 percent)
• These plays are not just dump-offs to feel out the defense (11.5 yards per attempt)
• Given the deep shots, the sack-rate is much higher (sacked once every seven attempts during first four plays; once every 28 attempts during final 11)
• His passer rating is a “low” 114.4 only because he has not thrown a touchdown pass on any of his four favorites to date

Palmer has been wildly successful on his four favorite plays. If not for a couple of early penalties and sacks that wiped out passing plays, he may have a touchdown or two.

Aside: Palmer connected with tight end Troy Niklas on the fifth pass play of the game against the Browns.

Starting fast is important, so it makes perfect sense that Arians has Palmer pick the passing plays with which he is most comfortable and thinks will work best against a respective opponent.

Next: Where is Carson Palmer in the MVP Race?

It doesn’t always work out as planned, but it has often set the tone for the game. Palmer has been on fire all season and, because of that, he is one of the highest-rated quarterbacks in the league. He is second in the NFL in passer rating (108.0), yards per attempt (8.94) and touchdowns (23) and is fourth in yards (2,749).

Thanks in part to his four favorites each week and the 11 other “scripted” passing plays, his team sits atop the NFC West with a 7-2 record, sporting a current three-game winning streak and three-game lead over everyone else.