New York Jets RB Chris Ivory not quite top five
New York Jets star running back Chris Ivory was one of the most criminally underrated skill position players in the NFL, but in Chan Gailey’s first season, Ivory has blossomed into a fantasy darling now that a team has finally given him a workhorse’s carry total.
NFL players need to have the utmost confidence in their own abilities when they step onto the gridiron, and so it’s not a surprise to see that New York Jets feature back Chris Ivory believes he’s one of the best. In a one-on-one interview with NFL Media for their “Oklahoma Drill” series, Ivory stated that he believes he’s a top-five RB.
"“I would definitely put myself in the top five. That’s how I feel. I feel like I see and do a lot of stuff that goes unnoticed, but people that actually watch the games or watch film, I think they are able to see why I feel this way.” – Chris Ivory"
Even if Ivory weren’t fifth in the NFL in rushing yards right now, it would still be understandable for him to believe that he’s as good as the likes of Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, and Eddie Lacy, who are just three players that have made top-five cases either this season or at some point in the recent past.
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So, yeah, Ivory is fifth in total rushing yards, averages a solid 4.2 yards per carry, is fifth in the league in rushing yards on a per game basis, and is sixth in the NFL with seven rushing touchdowns. He doesn’t bring much value in the passing game, but, well, it’s a bit hard to judge that since Bilal Powell has done an excellent job as Ryan Fitzpatrick‘s safety valve out of the backfield. Even so, when Ivory has been called to catch passes, he’s made them count, turning in a crisp 80.6% catch rate this year.
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Of course, what makes Ivory worth discussing as a potential top-five running back is his explosiveness, because he’s far more dynamic than most 6’0″, 222-pound running backs. Imposing enough in between the tackles to plow for seven touchdowns so far this season, Ivory is also fleet-footed enough to be one of the NFL’s leaders in missed tackles forced. In fact, ever since he was held hostage as a member of the New Orleans Saints backfield, Ivory was always quietly one of the NFL’s finest at shedding defenders or making them miss in other ways.
Like fellow AFC East rusher LeGarrette Blount, you wouldn’t think of Ivory as a home-run threat on the ground if you just looked at his height and weight, but those obviously aren’t the numbers that mean the most. Ivory, per Sporting Charts, is tied with LeSean McCoy, who has less carries, for third in the NFL with 27 runs of at least ten yards.
However, Ivory has an unfair advantage here, because he’s also one of just seven players with at least 200 rushing attempts this season. If we look at his number of 15-yard runs as a percentage of his total carries, Ivory, per Pro Football Focus, is fourth, and eight of his runs have gone for at least 20 yards this season.
Making big plays is important, but being able to consistently move the chains for an offense is equally important. With 18 rushing attempts per game, plenty of touchdowns, a decent yards per carry average, and a higher first down% than either Doug Martin or Shady, the Jet can’t complain here. And while his first down% isn’t overly impressive nor is his conversion rate on third-and-1 particularly appealing, Ivory, more importantly, isn’t prone to especially negative plays (read: getting stuffed).
But is he a top-five running back? All of the above numbers show that he is definitely in the discussion, and I’m sure most people would agree with this notion. That said, when Adrian Peterson, Todd Gurley, Marshawn Lynch, Lamar Miller, Martin, Freeman, Lacy, Le’Veon Bell, Shady, and even UDFA star Thomas Rawls are among those lurking, it becomes difficult to ascertain just exactly where he should be ranked on that list.
Dec 13, 2015; East Rutherford, NJ, USA; New York Jets running back Chris Ivory (33) runs the ball against the Tennessee Titans during the fourth quarter at MetLife Stadium. The Jets defeated the Titans 30-8. Mandatory Credit: Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports
Aside from center Nick Mangold, it’s hard to praise the caliber of run blockers in front of Ivory, which is why it’s so critical that so many of his yards come as a result of a defender missing a tackle.
Ivory’s violent rushing style allows him to get much more than what’s in front of him, and there’s no doubt in my mind that his 4.2 yards per carry average would be notably higher if he were running behind better blockers than, say, Breno Giacomini. Rawls and Lynch deal with worse on a regular basis, but Ivory’s line is less than ideal.
Gurley, Bell, Peterson, and Martin are clear top-five running backs, so that leaves the final spot to be fought among the rest of those players mentioned above. I’d preferentially give that final spot to Lynch or Rawls, who have been the best running backs in each of the past two seasons at generating yards after contact or making defender’s miss.
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To me, Ivory has a case for being in the top five, but he’s either not quite as well-rounded as the others or just slightly less talented as a player like Rawls or Lynch. He is an obvious top-ten running back, but I’d put him in the 6-8 range and not in the 3-5 range.
However, the difference is negligible, and what’s important is the fact that he’s an elite back capable of leading an offense and taking pressure off of a somewhat limited quarterback.