2016 NFL Draft: Is Josh Doctson overrated or a special WR?

It’s been a while since I last dove into a draft prospect’s tape, but the 2016 NFL Draft is stocked with intriguing players, specifically at the wide receiver position, so it’s time to get back on the horse. During his time at TCU, Josh Doctson became one of my favorite players to watch in either college or the pros, but how will his game transition to the next level?

Some see Josh Doctson as a sure-fire, first-round selection in the 2016 NFL Draft, and we’ve seen plenty of fans, specifically some Minnesota Vikings fans, clamor for their team to select him. However, there are doubters, including this scout who told NFL.com that he has a third-round grade on Doctson, and Walter Football, which ranks Doctson as the seventh-best wide receiver prospect in the class.

Before I get into the meat of the piece, I would like to thank Draft Breakdown as profusely as possible, since their extensive database of prospect videos helps make my draft work happen. They truly revolutionized the way we cover the draft- and the way fans follow the sport- by allowing do-it-yourself scouting, and the site itself happens to have some pretty darn good draft content, too.

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We all love watching Doctson’s jaw-dropping receptions and body control, but the best parts of his game are still open for criticism. Ever since the NFL Network’s Matt Harmon coined the term “trump card”, I’ve been almost infatuated with spotting this type of trait in talented wide receiver prospects, but the issue with Doctson is that a key trait that made him so dominant in college has been called into question by some when it comes to this trait transitioning to the NFL.

Doctson’s “trump card” is undoubtedly his ability to win at the catch point, because few players are better at boxing out defensive backs. In fact, because he’s such a poor route-running in the shorter ranges of the field, the only way he can move the chains is by effectively using his body to shield defenders. The way he wins in the non-deep and non-red zone areas of the field prevents him from being a real YAC threat, simply because he doesn’t generate enough space to do this; he relies on leverage, hands, and body position, which provide the added benefit of making him look stronger than he is.

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Want to see an example of how good he is at using his hands, contorting his body, and avoiding drops on throws he has to make adjustments to? Then check this play out. This is what Doctson’s about, and there are other plays in which he somehow makes the catch despite the ball being thrown so far away from him. The way he dives for underthrown passes on curl-type routes is reminiscent of Calvin Johnson (obviously I’m not comparing the two, just trying to come up with something many of you can relate to seeing in the NFL).

Last season at TCU, Doctson averaged 17.0 yards per reception, and this number is a reminder that most of his production came in the form of deep receptions and touchdowns. He made huge plays, but he did so because his playing style caused him to dominate in these ways. Why? Well, winning vertically and racking up TDs often come down to pure physical tools, and Doctson often beat defensive players with straight athleticism.

As I wrote in the first paragraph of this piece, Walter Football is one of the outlets that is down on Doctson, and a quick look a their write-up of him reveals a key aspect of their evaluation. They project Doctson will run a forty time at 4.56, meaning if he runs this slowly, it would take a special type of “trump card” to overcome this lack of speed that will prevent him from winning vertically as easily as he did at the collegiate level.

You’ll often hear Doctson referred to as a “raw” prospect who may need time to transition to the NFL, which worries those who do not believe wide receivers that will be 23 in their rookies have enough time to overcome these issues en route to stardom.

Want to see Doctson’s rawness in action? Let’s take a look at how poorly he runs routes in the intermediate areas of the field. I’ll show you two plays that don’t work and one that does to give you a feel for how Doctson tries to win in these areas by compensating for his lack of suddenness and quickness.

It’s a half-hearted attempt at a route that won’t be easy to run in the NFL. Doctson makes it way too easy for the defensive back to read where he’s going to go, because he rounds his route (a big negative on a play that should be a quick, out-breaking route). For a player so adept at using his body to win at the catch point, Doctson’s body language shows that he’s never trying to sell an inside move or any type of nuanced move. It’s just poor technique, but the most concerning thing is the fact that he came out of his cut at an excruciatingly slow speed.

And yet, Doctson probably could have caught that pass if it wasn’t un-catchable, because he was given such a wide cushion by the CB. Whenever Doctson took the field, there was huge “fear factor” from DBs, which allowed him to rack up passes defended and find plenty of space whenever the opposition decided to play off or zone.

Let’s look at a different play that resulted in a reception. I’m sure you’ve seen enough examples of Doctson using his body to make short catches, particularly near the red zone, so I’ve decided to spend a GIF on a play in which he finds open space against zone coverage vs. a soft defense. The Horned Frogs ran this route a few times last season for Doctson, including on the previous play I showed you.

If you give Doctson space, he will find it. This is something he does to devastating effect whenever he sees his QB is in trouble, and he is especially dangerous when he finds space behind the defense, particularly on post routes.

Notice that this play ends up in a reception simply because of how far off the corner plays against him. It’s a simple play that results in a modest gain, but it didn’t always happen that way, even against off coverage.

Trevone Boykin wants to get the ball to Doctson on this play, but the receiver runs the route with so little quickness that the cornerback has ample time to recover even though he gave the receiver such a huge cushion. Doctson probably expected the ball to come in quickly on yet another drag route, but this is another example of the problems he could have in the NFL in the short and intermediate regions of the field; he won’t be able to rack up catches against off coverage or off of broken plays every time, and he’ll have to do more than just win vertically.

We can nit-pick Doctson’s work in the short-area game plenty, but the fact of the matter is that we can find positive plays that show evidence of shiftiness at the line of scrimmage. I see Doctson criticized often for how he plays against coverage that isn’t as soft, but then he’ll pull a play like this. In this case, Doctson takes advantage of the cornerback’s fear of him bursting down the sideline by faking a cut outside, and this is the type of move I’d like to see from him more often, as opposed to the slow, uncalculated routes shown above.

These concerns can be overstated, since we can’t expect a lanky, 6’4″, 190 pound receiver who owns everyone at the catch point and downfield to be a beast in the short areas of the field. Doctson can’t win with quickness, and that’s OK; it’s why he’s seen as a top 32 prospect and not a, say, top-ten one like Treadwell.

What’s more important is defending the notion that Doctson can win downfield in the NFL, because that’s the reason why teams will be drafting him in the first round. Receivers who are big deep threats or dominant red zone weapons who can make tough catches are valuable, but you only get your name called in the first round if you can do both. Nobody is questioning Doctson’s ball skills or ability to attack the football in the air in question, but I’m here to tell you that his deep ball game is special enough to translate.

See, while Doctson isn’t quick or sudden, he is fluid, and that’s the trait you want out of a tall receiver with a sick catch radius when it comes to hoping he can be a big-play threat at the next level.

Here’s an example of Doctson showing smooth change-of-direction skills to get open vertically with ease- and without wasted movement.

That play above you? Yeah, that play is why many have Doctson slotted comfortably as a first-round pick, because it’s everything he’s about as a prospect. This is how he wins. First, Doctson burns the corner with a smooth double-move, then he adjusts to the pass perfectly, using his frame to box out both defenders before making a strong play on the ball. His size and ball skills give his QB such a huge margin for error, and it goes beyond just the dope catches he makes in the corner of the end zone.

Interestingly enough, Doctson’s large frame and ability to bail out his QB with unreal catches was both a blessing and a curse. How was it a curse? It prevented Doctson from developing his YAC game, which we saw some brilliant flashes of against Texas Tech. But for the most part, Boykin pretty much threw it haphazardly in Doctson’s area code, with this play being a particularly egregious example of TCU’s star quarterback preventing his receiver from having a chance at getting something extra after the catch.

All of the parts of Doctson’s game that are pointed to as weaknesses (YAC, short-area route-running, beating press coverage) are aspects of the game he didn’t have to experience frequently at TCU. In a way, Doctson was molded by the offense he played in, so we have to view him in the context of what he was asked to do.

Since TCU played with a quarterback who liked to improv and take shots deep, Doctson’s main task was to get open vertically, find space in zone coverage, or work back to his quarterback. When the ball was thrown to him, Boykin was often under duress and knew he had the luxury of throwing a low-quality pass to Doctson, simply because his receiver would either make a difficult catch, draw a pass interference call, or even prevent an interception due to his frame (something we see happen in the NFL).

So when we watch Doctson in college, we are watching him operating in an offense that magnified his best traits but may have inadvertently highlighted his weaknesses. These  portions of his game seem like weaknesses because he hasn’t been given as much of a chance to develop them, though this is why his age concerns some.

Since there is so much depth and talent at the wide receiver position and only 32 players worthy of being first-round selections, it can be hard to explain why Doctson is serving of a first-round selection. He’s not well-rounded, he’s not polished, and his evaluation in some areas get an “incomplete” due to sample size and situation.

But if you look past all of that, you’ll see a player who wins in translatable ways. A large catch radius, strong hands, and vertical separation? Those translate. Doctson is a long-strider who covers ample ground, and while a large part of his evaluation hinges on his forty time, we’ve seen plenty of young receivers succeed in the NFL on the strength of their size and ball skills. Maybe he’ll need to get stronger and show more agility, but, remember, DeAndre Hopkins, a sure-fire top five receiver, averaged just 1.6 yards after the catch per reception last season; as Mike Evans famously taught some, it’s all about how you win.

Doctson isn’t the perfect wide receiver prospect, but that’s why players like Treadwell, Corey Coleman, and even Michael Thomas are ranked above him by many analysts. In the right situation, Doctson is as valuable to a team as any of those players. I would personally love to see him join a team with a strong-armed QB that likes to improv, and even though they would never do this, he would be fun to watch on the Green Bay Packers.

With Doctson, anyone can tell you his strengths in a heartbeat, and, likewise, anybody can quickly tell you how infrequently he won in the areas that are deemed as his “weaknesses”. It’s more difficult to parse out just how important these are relative to each other, especially since it takes a great deal of guess-work when it comes to ascertaining how much of his role was due to the offense vs. his own limitations as a player.

A late first, early second round grade on Doctson seems fair, but he does remind me of Alshon Jeffery, even though Treadwell is the draft prospect who receives more comparisons to the Chicago Bears superstar wideout. Like Jeffery, Doctson isn’t dominant across the board, but, like Jeffery, he showed that he has a few unparalleled tools that allow him to tread into “trump card” territory. He’s one of those receivers who should be drafted as a “starter” and not a “No. 1” or “No. 2” receiver, since he would work best in tandem with a receiver of a different type, such as Stefon Diggs or Jeremy Maclin.

The teams that need a big, mis-match-making wide receiver are picking higher in the draft and would ideally like to have a player of Doctson’s caliber in the second round, but I think a team in the first will pluck him away. Players like Evans, Jeffery, Nuk, and Megatron who have great hands and ball skills have shown us that the most matchup-proof receivers are those who can consistently make plays on the outside, all the while stretching the field and bailing their QBs out of trouble.

Look at this play below and tell me that Doctson isn’t special. Look at the number of times he wins outside leverage, makes a jaw-dropping catch, or comes up with a reception on a “broken” play and tell me he doesn’t have special traits, including creativity as one of them.

We’ve become so fixated with route-running and quickness, thanks to players like Amari Cooper and Odell Beckham Jr., that we often forget that winning at the catch point is the most critical thing for non-small receivers. We also tend to forget that there’s more than one way to win before the catch, and Doctson is a reminder of this.

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He isn’t a can’t-miss, top-ten prospect like a Cooper or Evans, but, again, nobody thinks he is. In the context of his evaluation as a late first or early second-round pick, he’s properly rated, and in a league in which finding receivers who can win in specific ways that are difficult to defend is becoming increasingly more important, Doctson is worth the investment, especially since the rawest edges of his game aren’t completely blank slates and could potentially be explained by circumstance.