The New York Giants decided to make Olivier Vernon the highest paid 4-3 defensive end in the NFL, but does his production or potential warrant that money?
According to NFL.com Dan Hanzus the New York Giants agreed to a five-year, $85 million dollar contract with former Miami Dolphins’ defensive end Olivier Vernon. With an additional $52.5 million guaranteed on the contract too.
The move feels like a desperate attempt to get back to the formula that led the Giants to two Super Bowl wins led by a dynamic edge rush attack. But does Vernon have the talent or potential to bring the pass rush back to the glory it once had in those Super Bowl runs?
Let’s find out as we take an extended look at Vernon as an athlete, his production in college and production in the NFL to see if he’s worth an average of 17 million a year for the next five years.
Athleticism
Vernon’s overall athleticism is above average scoring in the 80 percentile in terms of explosive lower body strength amongst his edge rush peers since the 1998 draft class. And he was also in the 74th percentile in speed compared to his defensive end counterparts too.
But his Dynamic speed, or the fluidity of his speed in terms of the short shuttle and 3-Cone scored only in the 53rd percentile. Players with this athletic profile tend to need elite or top 10 percentile explosiveness and speed to be exceptional edge rushers.
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And as a result Vernon has more in common with Travis Laboy than he does with Khalil Mack, Will Smith, Adalius Thomas or even Brian Orakpo as a athlete. Vernon has starter level athleticism to be fair, but he doesn’t have the elite level athleticism to warrant a top 5 contract based on athletic potential alone.
But looking at this profile, maybe there is something in Vernon’s production that makes up for this lack of top tier athleticism. Maybe the Giants saw that he can dominant despite his athleticism?
So let’s go to Vernon’s production in college and the NFL.
Vernon Olivier’s College and NFL Market Share Production
Based on data spanning every draft class since 1996, there hasn’t been a single multiple All-Pro or multiple Pro Bowl edge rusher with Vernon’s college market share production pattern. Scoring 52.49 in solo tackles, 42.22 in sacks and 32.52 in TFL market share, Vernon was a relatively average pass rusher in college.
But how has he translated to the NFL? He must have been a dominant player in the NFL despite not dominating college to warrant such a high contract from the Giants?
Well, that’s where Vernon fails to impress once again. In terms of total impact NFL market share data, Vernon was the 27th most productive edge rusher in 2015.
He was the 37th in 2014, 15th in 2013 and he didn’t qualify due to not being a full time starter in 2012.
Finishing as the 27th, 37th and 15th best edge rusher in terms of total impact including solo tackles, sacks and pass deflections at the line of scrimmage is not the makings of a future top edge player. And especially a player who is worth 17 million a season for five years.
And to put this into perspective, here are the top 50 total impact market share edge rushers since the 2005 NFL season.
Olivier Vernon’s best season as a pro was the 262nd best in his sophomore season. From this perspective the Giants are essentially investing elite money into an edge rusher who has never had an elite production season in the NFL or college and doesn’t have elite athleticism potential either.
And for those who will cite his Pro Football Focus grade, or how many pressures he had. Sacks, tackles and pass deflections lead to dead plays and based on my research correlate highly at the NFL and college football level to more quality outcomes in the NFL.
Pressures have no proven statistical foundation from PFF, or any other outlet that to show a clear correlation to NFL success. Other than the mental gymnastics of those who cite pressures as meaningful.
It’s the equivalent of the man who looks at a sunset and proclaims the earth is flat. When science says otherwise.
All I hope is Vernon Olivier can live up to this lofty contract. But based on all the numbers and research he is by far one of the most overpaid players I’ve seen in quite some time.
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I can’t fault Olivier for taking the deal, but I would really take a long look at what the Giants are attempting to build here. If they can’t see how paying an average edge rusher top edge money isn’t an issue, then what else are they getting wrong in their evaluations?