Cincinnati Bengals: A.J. McCarron trade makes sense if…

Jan 9, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron (5) against the Pittsburgh Steelers during a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 9, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron (5) against the Pittsburgh Steelers during a AFC Wild Card playoff football game at Paul Brown Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /
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In the NFL, the only untradeable players are elite talents locked up to long-term deals or franchise quarterbacks. So on the Cincinnati Bengals offense, only A.J. Green and Andy Dalton are immovable items on the roster, no matter what is said about backup quarterback A.J. McCarron.

That said, young backup QBs with promising regular season tape are pieces that teams understandably aren’t willing to part ways with. I mean, the Cincinnati Bengals saw first-hand how valuable it is to have that kind of a backup quarterback on the roster, because A.J. McCarron’s ability to play competent football at the end of the season in Dalton’s absence was critical.

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It’s why Bengals head coach Marvin Lewis told Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio that the team will “respectfully decline” any overtures for the former Alabama QB.

The Bengals, of course, aren’t the only team protective of their quarterback investment. Remember, the New England Patriots were stingy with offers for Ryan Mallett before finally dealing him away, the Washington Redskins never traded Kirk Cousins (it’s definitely working out so far), and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers are still holding out for the right offer for Mike Glennon despite receiving a fantastic rookie campaign from No. 1 overall pick Jameis Winston.

Teams don’t like trading promising, young backup quarterbacks, especially if they serve as insurance to someone like Dalton. The Bengals are a sure-fire playoff contender every year, so the apparent stability McCarron brings to the table for the organization is potentially more valuable than, say, even a third-round pick.

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However, second-string quarterbacks that sit behind locked-in starters can be valuable trade chips, and that’s something no front office hand wants to mis out on. It’s why owner Mike Brown said, according to the Cincinnati Enquirer’s Jim Owczarski, “Every football player is for sale is the right offer comes along. That’s the nature of the business. Do I see something happening right now? I don’t. ‘Never’ is a word you want to be careful about.”

There are a few teams out there- most prominently the Denver Broncos and New York Jets- that could be after a quarterback via a trade. McCarron is not somebody teams are out to get, but he’s a name to monitor, especially as his rookie contract progresses. Despite a season of decent numbers bumping up his value, there’s no impetus to trade McCarron right now, since he’s under team control for two more years.

If the Bengals were to trade McCarron, who completed 66.4% of his passes with 7.2 yards per attempt and six TDs to just two picks, then a third-round pick would be the minimum asking price. I’ve never been a fan of McCarron’s game, neither in college nor necessarily in his appearances last season, but he did show up in 2015 when called upon. Moreover, 25-year-old QBs with name recognition, confidence, leadership skills, poise, and game manager-type accuracy can be coveted by teams worried about acquiring a high-variance quarterback.

Any team serious about bringing in a new starting quarterback would be OK with sending a third-round pick to the Bengals for McCarron, but I wonder if Brown and Co. would hold out for more. Of course, a third-round pick is indeed a steep price for a backup QB with minimal physical tools, questionable upside, and under 200 career pass attempts.

Even so, the point here is that McCarron is more valuable to the Bengals at this stage than a third-round pick, because they are a team built to win right now. They were one of the NFL’s best teams last season, and that’s an honor they will look to attain in 2016. If anything were to happen to Dalton, that could all go out the window if they don’t have a credible backup option, and it’s hard to put a price on security, particularly for an organization that has finally found a real contingency plan at QB.

Jan 3, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron (5) against the Baltimore Ravens at Paul Brown Stadium. The bengals won 24-16. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports
Jan 3, 2016; Cincinnati, OH, USA; Cincinnati Bengals quarterback AJ McCarron (5) against the Baltimore Ravens at Paul Brown Stadium. The bengals won 24-16. Mandatory Credit: Aaron Doster-USA TODAY Sports /

Two years of team control isn’t much, and I’m sure the Bengals don’t have any illusions of McCarron having a high ceiling. That said, I think it would take a second-round pick for Cincinnati to ship him elsewhere, and that’s a price nobody would be willing to accept. Not even the biggest Alabama homer or fan of McCarron’s game from 2015 would be able to justify a second-round pick on a former fifth-rounder, so I can’t see him going anywhere. He showed promise last year, but that means a whole lot more to the Bengals than it does to any of the QB-needy teams out there.

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I don’t hide my skepticism of McCarron’s abilities, but even I have to admit that he’s on his way to becoming one of the league’s top backups. That’s not something the Bengals will take lightly over the next two seasons, so I can’t see Lewis, who wants to make sure every potential wrench to their playoff plans is accounted for, getting behind trading McCarron for less than a second.