Former top prospect Jaylon Smith isn’t likely to see the field anytime soon. So teams have to decide if he’s worth the risk in the upcoming NFL Draft.
Jaylon Smith is the best player in the 2016 Draft. Jaylon Smith is a dominant defender. Jaylon Smith will be the face of whatever team drafts him. Jaylon Smith is a sure thing. Jaylon Smith is going to take the NFL by storm. Jaylon Smith can do it all.
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All those statements were commonly heard, until Jaylon Smith went down with a torn ACL and LCL in the Fiesta Bowl against Ohio State. The Notre Dame linebacker was one of the top defenders in the country and was set to be one of the first players off the board in 2016, but his draft stock dropped drastically after his injury.
Teams knew once he went down with an injury that Smith was unlikely to make it onto the field in 2016, but now there seems to be a good bit of question as to when he will make it back to the field, if ever:
After medical rechecks, Notre Dame's Jaylon Smith is not expected to play in 2016 and teams are unsure when he will play again, per sources.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) April 18, 2016
Following Smith’s knee surgery to repair his injured knee, some nerves in his leg have not fully regenerated yet, and there’s a decent amount of uncertainty as to whether or not they ever will. If those nerves can’t regenerate, it seems unlikely that Smith will play football again. Several teams who evaluated Smith at the NFL Combine decided to fail Smith on his physical evaluation, which means they would almost certainly not draft him (As reported by ESPN’s Jeff Legwold & Adam Schefter).
At least a few of the league’s 32 teams have already decided they will not be drafting Smith, but are there any teams willing to take the risk on him? If he pans out he could be one of the best steals in draft history, but if he doesn’t then he will take the spot of a player who could actually contribute on the field in some way. Drafting a player who may never make an impact on a game in anyway is a tough decision to make for an NFL front office.
Some players with knee injuries have bounced back even stronger than before, like Minnesota’s Adrian Peterson. Others, however, have struggled to stay on the field. Perhaps the best comparison is Houston’s Jadeveon Clowney, a similarly dominant defender, who has hardly been able to stay on the field after being the No. 1 overall pick for the Texans in 2014.
To be fair, Clowney is still young and is hoping to build on a good 2015 with an injury-free offseason that may lead into his breakout year, but he still has to shed the “injury-prone” label. Even if Smith can get on the field, debilitating injuries like the one he suffered can linger and could be evident of a body prone to injury.
Jaylon Smith’s game is built so much on his athleticism, quick reaction, and speed, and if he loses these things he loses what makes him such an exciting prospect. Simply having to spend so much time on the sideline could start to wear on the young player, and his natural abilities could start to fade. On the other hand, he could have some much-needed time to sit and watch and learn from the NFL game before being thrust out onto the field.
The idea that Smith is injury-prone may be a bit unfounded, because he was a three-sport athlete throughout high school and started all 39 games in his career at Notre Dame, and never suffered any major injuries. That doesn’t change the fact that this one injury is severe enough that it could cost him his career.
Teams that are considering drafting Jaylon Smith have to be teams that don’t need all of their draft picks to have instant impacts. Teams with a lot of depth already that do not need instant help at linebacker can afford to let Smith sit for at least a year, maybe more, and won’t rush him onto the field too easily.
A decision to draft Smith has to be a joint decision between the team’s management, coaches, and training staff. If any one of these parties isn’t willing to put in the work needed to help Smith make it back to football, then it simply isn’t going to happen.
Teams interesting in Smith must also be willing to wait on him. Drafting him too high will put too much pressure on everyone involved. Back to the Jadeveon Clowney comparison, Clowney was likely rushed onto the field on several occasions after injury because the team didn’t want to have wasted the top draft pick on a player who wasn’t making an impact. Waiting on Smith would make fans see him more as a late-round lottery ticket and less like a high-impact rookie.
"“He could be the best player in this draft,” ESPN draft analyst Mel Kiper Jr. (via ESPN) “and you’re probably going to have to redshirt him”"
Teams must focus on the redshirt year and be willing to overlook Smith’s game-changing potential until he is fully ready to get back on the field. Teams must also be willing to invest money in Jaylon Smith the man, in the hopes that they can receive the payout from Jaylon Smith the football player.
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His ability to play inside linebacker, outside linebacker, rush the passer, stop the run, and defend the pass make Jaylon Smith a rare do-it-all type of linebacker. Teams with some extra money to spend on a player who won’t see the field any time soon but could do big things later should consider taking him in the draft, but be wary of picking him too high.
I for one hope Smith is able to make a full recovery sooner rather than later, and realize his full potential on the football field, and I hope the team willing to bet on him gets their just reward.