Sunday Debate: Oakland Raiders Won’t Make Playoffs in 2016

Brendan Pignataro and Mark Morales-Smith will be debating a different topic each Sunday. This week will feature a debate on on the Oakland Raiders. Will the Raiders make the Playoffs?

Sunday, January 26, 2003 was the last day the Oakland Raiders played in the NFL postseason. It has been a long 13 years since Rich Gannon and company were defeated by the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Super Bowl XXXVII. Could this finally the year that the Raiders return to the playoffs?

Related Story: Sunday Debate: Oakland Raiders Will Make Playoffs in 2016

My colleague Mark is getting ahead of himself like he usually does, and believes the Raiders will make the playoffs in 2016. I am here to explain to you why the drought will last at least one year.

Now before you scroll down to the comments and scream that I am a moron, please here me out. I actually really like what the Raiders are doing. General manager Reggie McKenzie rightly blew up the roster a couple years ago and is continuing to rebuild the right way.

Derek Carr should be the franchise quarterback for the next decade. Khalil Mack can be a defensive player of the year candidate year after year. Young players like Amari Cooper, Clive Walford, Mario Edwards and Ben Heeney, to name a few, all have major upside. In addition, the Raiders spent a boatload of cap space wisely with signings of Sean Smith, Bruce Irvin, Reggie Nelson and Kelechi Osemele.

Now that is all great, but how will these additions and growth with the young players affect their win total?

The Raiders were 24th in total offense and 22nd in total defense last season. Their smart off-season moves will help each side of the ball, but I don’t see them moving up to the top 12 in either category.

The Raiders must prove they can beat playoff caliber teams. They had seven wins last year (Ravens, Browns, Chargers, Jets, Titans, Broncos, and Chargers). That would be only two wins vs. quality opponents in the Broncos and Jets. And really it is only one when you factor in the Jets had to play with Geno Smith after Ryan Fitzpatrick went down early in the first quarter.

Here is how I see the Raiders schedule shaking up in 2016:

Wins– Week 2 vs. Falcons, Week 3 at Titans, Week 4 at Ravens, Week 5 vs. Chargers, Week 6 vs. Chiefs, Week 8 at Buccaneers, Week 11 vs. Texans, Week 13 vs Bills, Week 15 at Chargers.

Losses– Week 1 at Saints, Week 7 at Jaguars, Week 9 vs. Broncos, Week 12 at Panthers, Week 14 at Chiefs, Week 16 vs. Colts, Week 17 at Broncos.

This brings them to a 9-7 record. I think the losses that will haunt them are at Jacksonville and home against the Colts. The Raiders will have trouble flying to the East Coast and beating an improved Jaguars team right after a big division game vs the Chiefs, and against a Colts team poised for a bounce back season.

The AFC West is going to be a tough division this year. The Chiefs didn’t have a strong off-season, but still has the talent to be above .500. The defending champion Broncos have issues at quarterback, but will still roll out a dominant defense. Also, the Chargers will not be a push over this season. They added help to their defensive line in Joey Bosa and got more weapons for Phillip Rivers with Travis Benjamin and Hunter Henry.

The loss of Charles Woodson’s leadership and play cannot be taken lightly. Nelson is a solid safety, but rookie Karl Joseph will experience growing pains as a box defender type of safety (as did Calvin Pryor and Landon Collins in their rookie seasons). That doesn’t mean he won’t be very good one day, but it will take time to learn the defensive system.

I do like the Joseph pick long term, but for the short term I didn’t love the Raiders draft.  Second round defensive end Jihad Ward is another guy that may take time to develop. NFL.com draft expert Lance Zierline called him a “developmental prospect.”

Then the Raiders decided to take another defensive end in Shallique Calhoun when they could have taken a player that fills a more important need. In the fourth round they selected a quarterback in Connor Cook that I really like, but he’s a player they may never use. While free agency helped immensely in the short term, conversely the draft had more of a long term strategy.

Another big issue for the Raiders is rushing the ball. As a team, they averaged 3.9 yards per carry last season.  Adding some run blockers to the offensive line in the draft would have been a big boost for Latavius Murray. However, they decided to neglect that need until the seventh round with the pick of guard Vadal Alexander.

So to recap, the Raiders trouble with beating quality teams, opting against short term help in this year’s draft, a very tough second half schedule, trouble running the ball, and losses of key veterans are some of the issues that will preclude Oakland from ending the playoff drought in 2016. A young, but improved, Raider team will fall short with around nine wins.

Sorry Mark, maybe one week you will out debate me…

More nfl spin zone: Sunday Debate: Chiefs are Playoff Team Least Likely to Return

Thank you for reading, and please check out Mark’s opposing article. Raiders fans, explain why you think I’m wrong in the comments below!