Indianapolis Colts should not sign Arian Foster
In 2015, the Indianapolis Colts were one of the worst teams in the league at moving the football on the ground, finishing 29th in rushing yards and 31st in yards per carry as a team.
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With a healthy Andrew Luck and first-round pick Ryan Kelly slated to start at center, there’s optimism that the Indianapolis Colts can have a 1,000-yard rusher in Frank Gore. The Colts signed Gore last offseason to give them their first real rushing threat in the Luck era, but a lack of a vertical passing game combined with poor blocking up front prevented this from materializing.
Although I have faith in Gore, not everyone is as optimistic on a 33-year-old running back coming off of a 3.7 YPC season. Moreover, the Colts depth at the position is questionable. Gore has been one of the most durable backs in the NFL during his career, but it might be hard to trust Robert Turbin, Jordan Todman, and Josh Ferguson as the top backups.
Recently, Pro Football Rumors’s Dallas Robinson looked at eight possible landing spots for former Houston Texans star running back Arian Foster, arguably the best player left on the open market, and he mentioned the Colts as one of those fits.
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Foster played in just four games last year due to injury, averaging a meager 2.6 yards per carry when he did see the field. This came after a season in which he averaged 4.8 yards per carry with 13 total touchdowns and over 1,200 rushing yards, re-establishing himself as one of the most valuable players in the NFL after an injury-shortened 2013.
Set to be 30 when the regular season opens up, Foster has suffered severe injuries throughout his career, and even his stellar 2014 campaign involved weekly nicks and bruises. Foster is a superstar back, but he is a battered one, and despite only minimal interest in free agency, he might be looking for a decent payday due to all of the pain playing will cause.
Your thoughts on the fit between Foster and the Colts likely depends on your faith in Gore, because neither player has been a complementary piece. Both Gore and Foster are three-down workhorses who lead backfields, and based on what the Colts have done at the position this offseason, they still view the former San Francisco 49ers icon as that type of back.
Todman, Ferguson, and Turbin are all prototypical change-of-pace backs, and while none of them have obtained steady success in the NFL, they all look like capable backups. It looks like the Colts believe Gore fits as that in-between-the-tackles bell-cow, and they must like the chances of one of those three backups emerging, or at least all of them contributing in some way.
As with everything, cost is the main factor, but I’m just not sure the Colts are interested in rostering two 30-year-old backs by the time September rolls around. Sure, Foster is a great player and this could be a way to hedge their bets, but this team has already been burned by over-the-hill veterans before. Andre Johnson was a disaster last season, and Reggie Wayne had issues before he hung them up.
Running back declines are even sharper than wide receiver descents, and because Foster is rarely healthy, he could end up being a waste of resources. Any deal with Foster would be a low-risk one, but what if a man who is well-known for playing by his somewhat unconventional rules isn’t willing to do that?
Nobody will sign Foster until late July when he works out for teams at (hopefully) full strength, as per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, and while a healthy Foster could certainly help Indianapolis, I’m not so sure they are interested. Gore could be almost as good, and I do wonder if the Colts are high on Ferguson, who is an excellent pass-catching back with high-level agility.
A pass-catching rookie with “shakes” and sub-4.5 speed is the type of back the Colts need to give touches to if they have faith in Gore, and Turbin and Todman should be considered the safer handcuffs.
Snagging a former division foe in Foster seems tempting for a team that struggled to run the ball in 2015, but their problems when way beyond the men carrying the football. Luck’s return to health and upgrades up front should address those problems, and signing Foster is not the smartest way to hedge that bet.
Teams like the Miami Dolphins and New England Patriots could make sense for him, but the Colts already have a workhorse-type back in Gore. Since Foster can’t be relied on to stay healthy, is he really the best way to boost their rushing attack considering the potential cost?
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I doubt it, and while he’s worth considering, I’d rather see the Colts stick with what they have, especially since they still need to evaluate the players behind Gore on the depth chart in training camp. Leave Foster for a team that has more of a need for what he could bring to the table and would be more willing to swallow any potential losses if he suffers an injury.