Jacksonville Jaguars: The Marqise Lee Hype Train?

The 2014 NFL Draft class was historically great at the wide receiver position, and the draft community was able to fall in love with top talents like Sammy Watkins, Odell Beckham Jr., Mike Evans, Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin, Jarvis Landry, and Allen Robinson. However, one man who received first-round hype hasn’t become a star, though it seems like a small portion of fans would like you to add the word “yet” to that.

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Last season, the Jacksonville Jaguars boasted arguably the best wide receiver duo in the NFL, as Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns helped lift Blake Bortles to a career year. Robinson torched defenses with 1,400 yards and 14 touchdowns, while Hurns had over 1,000 yards and ten touchdowns, turning those numbers into a four-year, $40 million contract this offseason (as reported by Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio).

Hurns and Robinson both entered the league in 2014, but neither 1,000-yard star was the highest-rated prospect coming into the draft.

That man, of course, would be Marqise Lee, and injury concerns caused the consensus fourth-best receiver in that class to fall into the second round. Injuries have certainly been a problem for the former USC star, because he’s missed nine games in his first two seasons and hasn’t seemed fully healthy at any given point.

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This has translated into just 52 career receptions, but that’s not even the worst stat. Lee’s career catch rate is a horrifying 51.5%, and it’s not like he has been a great deep threat in the DeSean Jackson mold either. With an average of 11.8 yards per reception through two seasons, Lee’s 6.1 yards per target is a rather unsightly number.

Despite these disconcerting numbers, the Jaguars have been rather busy talking up Lee. Jaguars GM David Caldwell said all the way back in February that he expects “good things” from the quick receiver, and Bortles called him “super talented”.

Most recently, offensive coordinator Greg Olson, as per the Florida Times Union’s Ryan O’Halloran, added that Lee has improved this offseason, calling him “very steady”. So whether it’s the GM, OC, or QB, the Jaguars organization is excited to have a healthy Lee in the building, and he made a NASTY cut yesterday to make good on all of those kind words.

Knocked for his penchant for drops in college, Lee’s inability to catch, well, anything in the NFL is of huge concern. However, because he’s had such troubles staying healthy, there’s hope that these struggles are due to a lack of comfort level or simply playing through soft-tissue injuries.

Remember, Lee was a consensus top-five receiver in a draft class that has been praised frequently for wide receiver talent, and the Jaguars decision to draft him with the 39th overall pick was met with favorable grades. He has prodigious talent, so there is some merit to the constant, positive offseason chatter.

An extremely fluid route-runner in college, Lee ran a 4.52 forty with a 38-inch vertical and 127-inch broad jump, all numbers that showcased his explosiveness. He definitely had his critics, but a quick look at Nolan Nawrocki’s NFL.com draft profile of Lee shows that there were also glowing scouting reports.

And what did I have to say about my fourth-ranked receiver?

"Lee had a Watkins-like year in 2012, and some people, including Lee himself, believe that his drop-off last season was due to factors out of his control. In 2013, Lee struggled through injuries and worse quarterback play, but his main struggles were with drops- and those struggles were totally his fault. Lee might have the worst hands in the entire draft class, and it has everything to do with technique. This is a guy who is either trying to attack the ball in the air instead of making a triangle shape to catch it, or he’s busy pressing the ball to his body.So why is Lee a top wide receiver prospect? Well, because he has all the potential in the world, and he has as much potential as Watkins does. Not only is Lee incredibly agile, but he’s a smooth route-runner who can cut on a dime. He wins at all levels, and he has some ridiculous athleticism. It’s too bad his hands are horrible, because he makes some acrobatic plays in tight spaces either near the sideline or in the end zone. Lee is a pretty big risk, but he has plenty of upside."

Yeah, it looks like I was off.

That said, the Jaguars haven’t given up hope, though he will have to duke it out just for a shot at targets. Robinson and Hurns are beasts, Julius Thomas will vie for looks, and Rashad Greene is a second-year slot man who shined as Jameis Winston‘s top target at Florida State. Lee will have to battle with Greene for the No. 3 receiver gig, but it looks like the Jaguars hope he will have a leg up on his main source of competition.

Some fans have been drinking the Kool-Aid, though it will take actual on-field performances (and consistent health for the first time in his NFL career) to convince anyone that he’s actually more than a JAG.

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And where do I stand on Lee? It’s hard to say. As someone who was high on him as a college prospect, I want to fall head-over-heels for the praise from the organization and the fact that he could have his first healthy offseason.

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The problem is that I have absolutely no reason to have faith in the chances of him staying healthy, nor do I have any reason to like his body of work in the league. A third-year breakout from Lee isn’t inconceivable, but I think it is wiser to be cautiously optimistic, understanding that the Jaguars are likely doing their best to motivate him.