San Francisco 49ers Rookie Profile: DeForest Buckner

The San Francisco 49ers draft was headlined by Oregon defensive end DeForest Buckner, but does he have what it takes to help the 49ers win the NFC West?

One of my favorite picks in the first-round this year came when the San Francisco 49ers snagged DeForest Buckner with the 7th overall pick. He was one of the first players I liked a lot while watching his game film, and as the draft process went on, he kept hitting every number I wanted him to hit.

Starting with his production data, Buckner was one of the most productive defensive tackles in this class.

DeForest Buckner Production /

Buckner hit elite level production thresholds, sharing many of the same data traits, or patterns of production as Cameron Jordan, Calais Campbell and Leonard Williams.

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He was also much more productive than his Oregon teammate Arik Armstead, who the 49ers drafted in the first-round last year. The main point of all this being that Buckner has proven to be one of the most productive defensive tackle prospects since the 1996 NFL draft class.

And yes, many don’t care about college production in NFL players. However, when the vast majority-by as much as 93% of long-term starters, 100% of Pro Bowlers and 100% of All-Pro players- of successful prospects hit very high production standards in college, this isn’t something to ignore.

This is especially true when the other variables line up. Like athletic data, which is where Buckner fell a little bit short.

DeForest Buckner /

Buckner- based on explosive, speed and dynamic speed metrics that use the forty yard dash, vertical, broad, short shuttle and 3-Cone- came up as a starting-caliber NFL athlete with physical limitations that will hold him back from being consistently dominant long-term. This is where I usually butt heads with other analysts, but when projecting possible outcomes in data work, you are looking for patterns of success.

Great players like Ndamukong Suh and J.J. Watt were as productive as Buckner in college but had the added bonus of being freak athletes. That said, many players as productive as Buckner in college with his average athleticism typically end up being good starters as opposed to superstars.

And the same patterns exist in great athletes with poor production becoming average-to-good starters. But they never quite reach the ceiling that their athleticism could take them to.

January 20, 2016; Santa Clara, CA, USA; Chip Kelly addresses the media in a press conference after being introduced as the new head coach for the San Francisco 49ers at Levi /

Buckner- for all of his positives on film and college production- is just not a freak athlete. As such, his overall projection isn’t elite.

However, that doesn’t mean you should harshly criticize the 49ers for taking a non-elite player in the top 10 of the draft. Buckner is one of the top 10 best players in this class.

He just isn’t a top 10 player when held up to his former and soon to be NFL peers. But I believe Buckner is a future foundation piece on a vastly revamped 3-4 defensive front.

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But I want to hear from you guys? Knowing that the chances of Buckner becoming a consistenly elite defensive end are slim vs. being a good long-term starter based on the data.

Would you still draft Buckner if you had the chance at a do-over? Or are you still perfecty okay with Buckner as the pick going forward?