Houston Texans: Can J.J. Watt continue to dominate in 2016?
By Luke Sims
Houston Texans defensive end J.J. Watt has been an unstoppable juggernaut to this point in his career, but his numbers may no longer be padded by a weak division.
Make no mistake, J.J. Watt is one of the best defenders in the NFL right now. You could argue that he is the best defender in the NFL right now and nobody would bat an eye. He finds ways to be an effective player regardless of whoever is opposing him.
Posting over 10 sacks for the last four years in a row and leading the NFL in two of those seasons (2012 with 20.5 and 2015 with 17.5) and posting 20.5 sacks twice (2012 and 2014), Watt is a terror. He dominates the opposition.
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If we look closer, it’s clear that he specifically dominates his AFC South rivals. The Jacksonville Jaguars, Indianapolis Colts, and Tennessee Titans have to face off against Watt twice a year so it makes sense that a significant amount of his success sacking the quarterback comes from those games. How much, specifically comes from those three teams alone? Let’s look back, starting in 2012:
- 2012: 9.5 sacks out of 20.5 (46 percent)
- 2013: 5.0 sacks of 10.5 (47 percent)
- 2014: 14 sacks of 20.5 (68 percent)
- 2015: 6.5 sacks of 17.5 (37 percent)
The AFC South makes up a significant amount of Watt’s sack numbers. When the Houston Texans play their division rivals, there’s blood in the water and Watt is moving through offensive lines like a hot knife through butter. This is partly due to knowing the teams so well, but it’s also partly due to the AFC South featuring some of the worst teams in the NFL over the last few seasons.
While it isn’t fair to say that Watt is simply padding his numbers against the Jags, Colts, and Titans, there’s certainly an element of that at work. Watt’s gaining a almost 50 percent of his most influential plays in any given season in just six of the 16 games. For all of Watt’s brilliance, it must be a relief for other teams to know that most of his production will come against teams that are, frankly, below average.
With the AFC South finally getting its act together in 2016 and clearly on the rise (per Sports Illustrated’s Don Banks), it may be time to finally see Watt’s numbers take a hit. He may finally be stopped by offensive lines that are protecting above-average quarterbacks and are able to get the ball past the defensive line. The AFC South may finally be able to stonewall Watt as he seeks to do what he has done for almost every season he has been in the league.
J.J. Watt gives the Houston Texans a generational talent and threat at his position. He’s unique and he’s utterly dominant, but his opposition to this point has been sub-standard and weak. He has been a man among boys and he’s been applauded for that. He’s been playing a different level of game compared to his peers.
That changes in 2016. In fact, it’s already started to change. 2015 saw the Colts (who were miserable all season on offense) shut out Watt twice and the Jaguars shut him out once. This doesn’t change that fact that Watt was hyper productive in his other three AFC South contests, but it definitely shows that he isn’t the unstoppable force he once was against these teams.
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While it’s fair to expect Watt to put up big numbers overall in 2016, it wouldn’t be shocking to see him dip down to 10 sacks for the first time since 2013. In fact, he may find himself even lower if the AFC South does turn out to be as good as many hope it can be.