By all accounts, Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Nelson Agholor was a safe pick in the first round of the 2015 NFL Draft, and the consensus is equally certain that he failed miserably in his first season in the league.
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An awful rookie campaign should not doom Nelson Agholor to his placement on the Philadelphia Eagles shrine of draft busts- an altar containing the likes of Danny Watkins and Marcus Smith.
With the way our coverage of the NFL unceasingly shoves recency bias down consumers’ throats, I wouldn’t blame a few fans from already growing frustrated with Agholor. After all, projections, such as the one provided by NJ.com’s Eliot Shorr-Parks, that have Rueben Randle starting over Agholor don’t do the former USC star any favors.
Randle himself is a former second-round pick who blew up the workout circuit as a draft prospect with a 4.43 forty as a 6’3″, 210-pound wide receiver from LSU. But instead of becoming a high-profile target for Eli Manning, Randle played a huge part in the quarterback’s 27-interception campaign in 2013.
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Known more for his awful routes and shaky hands than his work at the catch point or long speed, Randle drew the ire of Giants fans before mercifully walking away this offseason.
The Eagles scooped up the former rival on the cheap, as they will pay him just $1.025 million this season with $500,000 guaranteed. Incentives on his contract could push the deal up to $3 million, but let’s just say that Philadelphia would be more than happy to shell out that extra dough in trade for a strong season from a player who is still just 25.
Though it may seem like a huge issue that Agholor is projected to be behind a player with Randle’s almost toxic reputation among a select fan base, the truth is that the hate on him was exaggerated. Yes, he did stink in 2013 and 2014, but Randle legitimately improved last season.
After struggling with catch rates hovering at around 55% at below, Randle’s catch rate shot up to 63.3% last season, even though he averaged 14.0 yards per reception. You could look at his receptions and yards, notice that they fell in 2015, and conclude that he’s becoming worse. That sort of simple glance doesn’t work, though, and you would be wrong to say that.
The truth is that Randle became much more efficient as a receiver, because he averaged 8.56 yards per target. There’s plenty more that goes into wide receiver play than averaging a large amount of yards per target, which is easier for players with a high YPR, but consider that his yards per target averages in 2013 and 2014 were both a full yard lower.
Moreover, Randle final showed off red zone value in 2015, catching a career-high eight touchdown passes.
Though Randle led all Giants wide receivers in catch rate and improved across the board, he had the advantage of only receiving 90 targets. The Giants made him a much smaller part of the gameplan, instead riding Odell Beckham Jr. to 158 targets, 13 touchdowns, and over nine yards per target. That made life much easier on Randle, who will join more of a spread-out passing attack in Philadelphia.
That’s why the battle for the No. 2 wide receiver job behind Jordan Matthews isn’t a big deal, and it’s why I’m not concerned if Agholor “loses” out on the gig.
According to Pro Football Focus, the Eagles base set on offense was with three wide receivers, which is definitely the main set-up in the NFL today.
There will be more than enough to go around, because I doubt Sam Bradford is the type of quarterback who is best off locking into one target. As Richard Sherman once said, he is a rhythm passer, and these types of quarterbacks tend to like to get it to the open read. Both Matthews and Zach Ertz– clearly the Eagles top two targets- amassed over 100 targets last year, but nobody truly dominated the targets. They both went over 100 almost out of necessity, since the running backs were the next-most targeted options.
Agholor will, hopefully, get more than just 44 looks in 2016, and Randle adds more capable talent to the wide receiver position. I’d go as far to say that Randle’s presence will help Agholor out even more, since he gives the Eagles a big receiver with experience who can give the second-year pro more room to operate. More importantly, Agholor will have less pressure on him to perform, because I bet there were plenty of expectations weighing on him as a rookie WR2 under Chip Kelly.
I view pass-catching totem poles as consisting of levels, rather than clear delineations. For example, a team like the Atlanta Falcons will clearly favor Julio Jones with an even amount of targets distributed to running backs and tight ends and the No. 2 wide receiver.
The Eagles, on the other hand, will favor Ertz and Matthews more modestly, with Randle and Agholor vying for a roughly equal number of targets in that second tier. Much of the target distribution will depend on how Agholor plays, because Randle is used to consistently receiving five to ten targets per game.
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Regardless of what the depth chart says, I wouldn’t worry too much about a “competition” between Randle and Agholor. Both are clearly different receivers, and it is Randle who provides most of the unique traits at the wide receiver position to the Eagles offense with his blend of size, strength, and pure vertical speed.