Tom Brady has finally accepted the punishment handed down from the league and will miss the first four games of the season. His absence will cause massive changes in the fantasy football world, drastically altering the strategies of players in all formats.
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Brady has elected not to pursue further action against the National Football League for his alleged role in the Deflategate case. In doing so, the New England Patriots quarterback accepted a four-game suspension, something that will undoubtedly complicate things for fantasy owners come draft day.
His draft position will certainly be lower than it would have previously been, with quarterbacks such as Derek Carr, Ben Roethlisberger, Blake Bortles, Tony Romo, and Carson Palmer now hurdling him in the pecking order. Instead of targeting Brady during the early portions of the draft, like they would have prior to his suspension, fantasy owners will likely look to grab him in the mid-to-late rounds.
Having said that, fantasy players targeting him will have the opportunity to build up other areas of their roster while they wait to snag the suspended quarterback in the later rounds. This allows them to grab another high quality player at a skill position in the earlier rounds, something that can give them a large advantage down the road.
A player of his caliber is usually selected within the first four rounds of the draft. With that not being the case this season, the team that nabs the quarterback will have the opportunity to build a strong group of skill players around him. Not drafting a capable quarterback in hopes of landing a suspended player is a risk, but if it works out, the unit can become dominant upon his return.
Think about it, instead of using a high pick on an elite quarterback and settling for an average second running back or wide receiver, you can ensure that your team has a strong number two at one of the positions. And while his absence will lead to players building strong fantasy teams, stocked with talent, it will also play a large role in the draft stock of his supporting cast in New England.
In all likelihood, Rob Gronkowski will still be the first tight end off of the board, so not much should change for him on draft day. However, players like Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, and Dion Lewis will surely see their draft stock drop. Again, this isn’t necessarily a bad thing in the long-term, but, with their production limited with Jimmy Garoppolo at the helm, it’s hard for me to envision their statistics matching their skill level.
It is my belief that Brady will be the most important player in fantasy football in 2016. His four-week absence will send shockwaves throughout drafts, drastically changing the draft order of quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers in the early rounds. It will improve the draft stock of numerous quarterbacks around the league, while lowering the worth of his pass-catchers and running backs in the process.
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His absence will unquestionably be a factor when considering his teammates in the draft, but, more importantly, it’s the return of a fresh, hungry quarterback that should have fantasy owners excited. They’ll have a supremely talented player at the helm and, presumably, a strong group of players to fill out the rest of their roster.
Don’t be surprised if Tom Brady resides on the roster of the championship team in your league this year.