Fantasy Football: A.J. Green is Grossly Underrated
By Andrew Long
When discussing the top wide receivers in the NFL, A.J. Green is a player that is often overlooked. Due to his consistently strong numbers, I believe that he should be targeted by fantasy football players early in the draft process.
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The NFL season is right around the corner, which means fantasy football gurus have likely already began scouting players for their upcoming drafts. With more and more leagues switching to points per reception (PPR), it can be said that wide receivers are the new running backs in terms of importance and production.
That being said, if you find yourself in a PPR league, selecting a skilled wideout in the first round is a completely realistic game plan. This doesn’t mean you should reach for a receiver or pass on a high quality running back, but if you have the opportunity to grab a top-tier wideout in the first round, go for it.
However, there are only four receivers that I would feel comfortable drafting in the first round: Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Odell Beckham, and A.J. Green.
In PPR formats, there’s a good chance that Brown, Jones, and Beckham will be the first three picks, which leaves Green as the odd man out. I’ve seen him selected in the first round in a few mock drafts, but, on a few occasions, he has fallen out of the first round and is listed behind receivers surrounded with question marks – players like Dez Bryant, DeAndre Hopkins, and Jordy Nelson.
ESPN.com currently has him ranked as the seventh best wideout, while two out of three fantasy analysts for CBSSports.com have him ranked no higher than sixth overall at the position. To me, this is absolutely ludicrous, and for a number of reasons.
Due to injuries and poor quarterback play, Bryant had his worst season as a professional in 2015. Hopkins has only produced at a high level for a couple of seasons, and will have to find a rapport with Brock Osweiler. Nelson will benefit from his relationship with Aaron Rodgers, but, coming off of an ACL injury, nothing is certain.
Having said that, I still believe that those players are more than capable options. I just believe that A.J. Green is a better, safer option. Since entering the league in 2011, he has been the epitome of consistency, recording at least 65 receptions and greater than 1,000 yards each season.
The 27-year-old wideout, like he’s done every season since entering the league, had a great year in 2015, recording 86 catches for 1,297 yards and 10 touchdowns. While his yardage and touchdown totals are great, it’s his catch percentage that is truly telling, as he managed to catch 65.2% of the passes thrown his way last season – Hopkins and Bryant caught 57.8% and 43.1% of their passes, respectively.
Obviously, catch percentages don’t win fantasy games, and you shouldn’t draft a wide receiver based solely on that statistic. What it does mean, though, is that Green is a highly capable target and is more than deserving of Andy Dalton‘s trust. Pair his reliable hands with the fact that the Bengals lost a number of their key offensive weapons during the offseason, and you have a player that could see his numbers skyrocket.
In 2012 and 2013, when the team had little to no offensive playmakers, he was targeted a total of 342 times, an average of 171 times per season. The high volume of targets led to a pair of monster seasons. He recorded 97 catches for 1,350 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2012, and 98 catches for 1,426 yards and 11 touchdowns in 2013.
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With Marvin Jones and Mohamed Sanu playing elsewhere, I foresee Green posting similar numbers in 2016. I’m not saying you should draft him ahead of Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, or Odell Beckham. However, I do believe that he should be viewed as the fourth best wide receiver in the NFL, and should be drafted accordingly.