Fantasy Football: Steve Smith is the Ravens WR You Want

People are going to constantly remind you Steve Smith Sr. is too old, too small, and is coming off a major injury. Due to all of these factors, they say he’s not worth drafting or mentioning in fantasy football.

Sep 21, 2014; Cleveland, OH, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith (89) makes a long reception against Cleveland Browns cornerback Joe Haden (23) during the fourth quarter at FirstEnergy Stadium. The Ravens won 23-21. Mandatory Credit: Ron Schwane-USA TODAY Sports /

Yet, I’m here to to remind you that among all of the Ravens WRs on the roster, Steve Smith is the one you want to own. His primary competition in this debate is fellow teammate Kamar Aiken.

Last season, the WR out of Central Florida finished with 75 receptions, 944 receiving yards and five touchdowns. The receptions and receiving yards were the most he had in a single season in the NFL or college (and possibly ever in his life). It was a great season and story for the former undrafted free agent, but this breakout season was due to perfect circumstances that won’t happen again in 2016.

Before Smith went down with a season-ending injury in Week 8 against the San Diego Chargers, Steve Smith Sr. was one of the best FF WRs in the NFL. This is how these two WRs stacked up Weeks 1-8.

Weeks 1-8

Smith Aiken

46 Receptions 25

670 Receiving Yards 333

3 Touchdowns 2

73 Targets 44

82 *FF points 40

*According to ESPN standard scoring

What’s notable in Smith’s already impressive production compared to Aiken’s is Smith played one less game than Aiken, because he missed Week 5 against the Cleveland Browns with an injury. Before Smith tore his Achilles, he was far and away the superior WR. Aiken, on the other hand, was on pace to barley finish inside the top-50 among NFL WR’s in receptions and receiving yards.

When Smith went down with an injury, Aiken wasn’t the best option.

He was the only option.

During the 2015 off-season WR Torrey Smith signed with the San Francisco 49ers.

2015 first-round WR Breshad Perriman missed the entire 2015 season with an injury.

Before Week 5, WR Michael Campanaro was put on IR.

WR Marlon Brown only played in 10 games before going on IR before Week 17.

Rookie WR Darren Waller was put on IR before Week 8.

So with basically no other WR on the roster, Joe Flacco was forced to throw the ball to Aiken all the time and that’s why Aiken’s stats looked so good, right?

Sep 27, 2015; Baltimore, MD, USA; Baltimore Ravens wide receiver Steve Smith (89) makes a catches over Cincinnati Bengals cornerback Leon Hall (29) at M&T Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports /

Well not exactly.

Before Week 12, Flacco was placed on IR with a torn ACL and MCL. Basically, Flacco and Aiken only played three games in 2015 without Steve Smith (Week 5, 10 and 11).

In those three games Aiken had 16 receptions, 201 yards, 1 touchdown and 25 FF points on 31 targets.

Aiken played another six games in 2015 and they were without both Smith and Flacco. In those six games Aiken had 38 receptions, 488 yards, 2 touchdowns and 58 FF points on 61 targets.

There were three different but important situations that took place for Aiken in 2015.

1.He played games with Smith and Flacco.

2.He played games without Smith but with Flacco.

3.He played games without both Smith and Flacco.

Lets see how each of these three sample sizes look over the course of a 16-game season.

16-game pace with Steve Smith Sr. and with Joe Flacco: 50 receptions, 666 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns and 80 FF points on 88 targets.

16-game pace without Steve Smith Sr. but with Joe Flacco: 85 receptions, 1,072 yards, 5 touchdowns and 133 FF points on 165 targets.

16-game pace, without both Steve Smith Sr. and Flacco: 101 receptions, 1,301 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns and 155 FF points on 163 targets.

It shouldn’t be surprising Aiken produced more without Smith. However, the fact he put up significantly better numbers with Jimmy Clausen, Matt Schuab and Ryan Mallett is surprising. These games should be considered “outliers” because there’s a small percentage chance all of these events take place in 2016. In fact, there’s no chance these events happen again in 2016.

Could Smith get hurt again? Sure.

Could Flacco get hurt again and Ryan Mallett will have to take over? Sure.

Could both of these injuries occur again and the Ravens play without their starting QB and No.1 WR for almost 40% of the regular season? It’s highly unlikely. Yet, even if this situation does happen, the Ravens have a lot more WR depth and options.

Ravens beat writer Jeff Zrebiec reported head coach John Harbaugh expects Breshad Perriman to be ready for Week 1 (Yeah, I’m skeptical of that too).

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The Ravens signed WR Mike Wallace to a two-year contract during the offseason.

The Ravens drafted WRs Chris Moore and Keenan Reynolds during the 2016 NFL draft.

So even if Smith were to go down with a season-ending injury, Aiken is going to face a lot more competition for targets. Ravens reporter Jamison Hensley reported that it is actually Wallace and not Aiken who is going to start opposite of Steve Smith Sr. to start the season. This shouldn’t be a surprise because Wallace is a more dangerous WR who can take the top off a defense while Aiken doesn’t do anything special.

Wallace, who has shown to be inconsistent week-to-week with his fantasy performances throughout the years will more than likely continue that trend in 2016. However, don’t be shocked when he finishes the season with more fantasy points than Aiken as well.

Last season, Smith showed his continued chemistry with Flacco. In 23 career games with Flacco, Smith is averaging over 5 receptions and 75 receiving yards, on 9 targets per game. Last season, his 16-game pace was 105 receptions, 1,531 receiving yards, 7 touchdowns and 187 FF points on 167 targets. At that pace, he would have set a new career high in receptions while his 187 FF points would have made him the fourth-best FF WR in (ESPN) standard scoring.

must read: Fantasy Football: So You Want to Wait on WRs?

Although Smith designated 2015 as his final season in the NFL, he is coming back in 2016 because he wants to go out on his own terms. Based on the Steve Smith we’ve all watched throughout for the last 15 seasons, he doesn’t half-ass anything. Why would his 16th season be any different?

Say what you want. Old. Small. Decrepit.

Personally, I’m not going to bet against Smith and it would be wise for you to do the same.

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