How NFL offenses succeed and fail

Highlight mix-tapes with mildly annoying music overlaying ridiculous plays from superstars like Odell Beckham Jr. and Le’Veon Bell are more prevalent than ever, and our star-centric view of the NFL universe doesn’t do us any favors when it comes time to actually evaluating offenses.

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When I do my

daily

hourly

far too frequent login to Twitter-dot-com, most of the football discussion centers around questions like this:

• Is Derek Carr better than Blake Bortles?
• Are you crazy if you think Demaryius Thomas is a top five receiver?
• Would you rather have Tom Brady or Cam Newton?

These are all valid ways to talk about the game, but some of us tend to take this star-centric approach to the game and try to look at teams based on these grounds.

You need to have star players in order to win in this league, but having the most star power at the wide receiver position or having the slightly better quarterback isn’t going to give you the gilt-edged advantage.

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It isn’t enough to have the pieces in place, you also need to have the structure in place to make it happen. More importantly, you need to have the safeguards in place to make sure that you can still win without a key player. There’s a reason why “next man up” offenses like the New England Patriots do so well every year, even if they are struck by a myriad of injuries.

What we don’t realize is how important it is to have a well-structured offense with a coach who knows how to use the pieces at his disposal to build a multi-faceted engine. These abstract ideas are difficult to describe without context, so I’ll use several examples of 2015 offenses to show you exactly what I mean here.

When your quarterback sucks….The New York Jets Story

First, let’s take a look at an offense that did things well, and a good example would be the New York Jets. Coming into the 2015 season, starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick, who is so good that nobody else has even entertained the idea of signing him, had never been part of a winning team.

Largely recognized as one of the league’s worst starting quarterbacks, Fitzpatrick magically had a career revival at the age of 33, tossing 3,905 yards and 31 touchdowns with an 88.0 QB Rating.

Though his deep passes were blind chucks and he ripped off 15 interceptions, Fitzpatrick looked more than passable under center for the Jets, en route to a ten-win season.

Why did he succeed? Chan Gailey, Todd Bowles, and the Jets had the right mix of players around him, and, more importantly, they had a cohesive structure.

The Jets had no tight ends, and even though their offensive coordinator is a renowned spread offense guru, they only had two wide receivers with more than 50 targets.

Here’s why they did well as an offense, averaging the tenth-most yards per game: they ran the football effectively and played to their strengths through the air.

Instead of trying to ask Fitzpatrick to run a timing-based offense predicated on accuracy, they were one of the most aggressive offenses in the NFL. Per Pro-Football Reference, only the Jacksonville Jaguars attempted more deep passes in 2015, and the Ben Roethlisberger-led Pittsburgh Steelers actually tied the Jets with 144 such deep attempts.

They didn’t try to spread the ball around or ask their below-average tight ends to hold a big role in the passing game. The Jets let Eric Decker and Brandon Marshall– who have been two of the best in the business over the past five years- do 60.6% of the work, making use of Bilal Powell as their main safety valve.

In fact, the Jets seemingly high evaluation of Powell shows me that they understand how to operate a functioning NFL offenses at a higher level. When running an aggressive, downfield attack, a great safe “out” to generate modest yardage is a pass-catching running back with great skills after-the-catch. After Powell established himself, he closed the season with four straight games with at least five receptions.

Fitzpatrick’s proneness to interceptions did hurt the Jets offense, and you might look at the team’s 9.0 INT% on deep passes, surmising that this was too risky. However, the risk was totally worth it for the Jets, because they knew they had the defense to achieve this. The Jets had a 2.6 INT% on offense but a 3.0 INT% on defense.

Though the Jets were dead last in yards per attempt on these deep passes, they absolutely had to stick with this gameplan. Everyone likes to talk about how a hard-nosed running game opens up the deep passes, but the reverse is just as true. In order to continue to use the excellent Chris Ivory as a bell-cow in between the tackles behind below-average guards, they had to keep defenses honest.

If you can’t plan for an injury…The Green Bay Packers Story

The struggles of the Indianapolis Colts offense in 2015 can be easily attributed to the downgrade in ability and arm strength from Andrew Luck to Matt Hasselbeck. However, the Green Bay Packers never lost Aaron Rodgers to injury, but their issues with moving the ball go beyond just Jordy Nelson‘s season-ending absence.

I hate to jump to conclusions about the decisions a head coach made, but one of Mike McCarthy’s mistakes was not getting Jeff Janis involved sooner. Look, I get that he drops a lot of passes and runs routes at a Rueben Randle level, but at 6’3″ with 4.30-second wheels, Janis was the tallest and fastest receiver on the Packers.

Let me show two statistics about the Packers offense that will cut deep.

• The Packers had the third-lowest third down conversion rate on third down passes last season- only the pathetic 49ers and Rams were worse.
• Aaron Rodgers completed just 35% of his deep passes last season…his average was about the same as Fitzpatrick’s! In fact, no QB with 100 deep pass attempts had a lower completion percentage on such plays than Rodgers
• They were 31st in net yards per pass attempt at 5.7.

Considering that Rodgers has a career average of 7.0 net yards per pass attempt and is a prolific deep passer who has the fourth-most deep passing yards since 2011, something is definitely wrong with this picture.

Eddie Lacy played in 15 games last season, but while he wasn’t injured, his weight issues hurt the Packers so much more than you might think. After carrying the rock 284 and 246 times in his first two seasons, respectively, Lacy had just 187 rushing attempts last year. The Packers missed out on benefiting from one of the NFL’s best rushers, and as we saw with Ivory’s success in New York, physical running backs have a way of opening up a passing attack.

In 2014, Lacy averaged 4.6 yards per carry, making him one of nine running backs to average at least 4.5 yards per carry with at least 1,000 total yards. Lacy also caught 42 passes, a total surpassed by only four of the other 12 1,000-yard rushers that season.

James Starks averaged as many yards per carry as Lacy did last season and played a bigger role in the passing game, but the Packers offense clearly missed the former Alabama star.

The Packers only have themselves to blame for the struggles of the offense in Nelson’s absence. They failed to play the one person, Janis, who could have brought the same abilities Nelson did, and if they were so adverse to playing Janis, they should have thought about having a better backup option.

As the New England Patriots have shown us (Danny Amendola in for Julian Edelman and James White replacing Dion Lewis, who originally replaced Shane Vereen), you always need a “Plan B” in case you lose somebody important.

James Jones‘s numbers look respectable on the surface, because he caught 50 passes for 890 yards and eight touchdowns, averaging nearly 18 yards per catch. However, his success is a testament to Rodgers’s brilliance as a quarterback, because Jones never gained separation and only showed value at the catch point.

Yet, having Jones on the team was the lone saving grace for this passing offense. With Ty Montgomery injured, Randall Cobb hobbled and swallowed up by defenses, Davante Adams struggling, and Richard Rodgers staying close as the safety valve (8.8 yards per reception), Jones’s rapport with his QB paid off big time.

The Packers aren’t keeping Jones because of his age and lack of speed, but his savvy and strength allowed him to lead the team in receiving yards. He can’t run by people, but Jones showed us that there’s more than one way to beat people.

Even though the Packers offense was thrown into chaos by just one injury, Jones is good illustration of how a flawed player can help a team if he has the right traits…if only the Packers had realized that Janis could have aided them in a similar manner.

When you can plan for an injury…The Carolina Panthers Story

Before the regular season, the Carolina Panthers lost their No. 1 wide receiver, and it seemed like Kelvin Benjamin‘s injury would be a bigger blow than Nelson’s. Yes, Nelson is the better player, but the common argument, including the one perpetuated by myself, was that Aaron Rodgers, Randall Cobb, Eddie Lacy, and the rest of the offense could overcome this. Add in some positive words for Ty Montgomery and Davante Adams, along with negative ones for the Panthers wide receiver corps, and it seemed like Benjamin’s injury would make more waves.

Instead, the Panthers went 15-1, Cam Newton had the season of his life en route to winning MVP, and Carolina was a Denver defense away from a Super Bowl ring.

The difference? While the Packers had the bigger names and star power, the Panthers proved to be much better at creating a structured offense.

Newton’s rushing ability, arm strength, and playmaking in difficult situations was critical, but for as simple as it is to attribute all of the team’s success to him, just as much praise should go to the coaching staff.

Beyond the fact that they helped Newton harness his physical talents to their fullest potential, they put his supporting cast in the best position to succeed.

I’m sure plenty of you have unkind things to say about the likes of Ted Ginn Jr., Jerricho Cotchery, and Corey Brown, and you wouldn’t be too far off. Since none of these three players are better than No. 3 WRs in this league, a star-centric focus on the NFL would dictate that they were “scrubs” whom Newton carried.

The truth is more complicated than that, because these three players helped the Panthers build a multi-faceted offense.

Newton is a superstar player, but one superstar alone will not cause your team to lead the league in scoring offense. If that were the case, then the Packers would have finished higher than 15th in points per game with Rodgers at the helm.

Mike Shula, Ron Rivera, and the Panthers expertly crafted a run-first offense behind a powerful offensive line. You can diss Michael Oher and Mike Remmers all you want for their shoddy pass protection, but the Panthers offensive line was nasty in the running game. Trai Turner, Ryan Kalil, and Andrew Norwell were awesome, and Inside The Pylon actually gave Carolina the award for having the best offensive line in the NFL last season.

With 242 draining carries, Jonathan Stewart completed his jump back to stardom, and it is remarkable how he can move the pile. Stewart took on the punishment, conclusively proving that he is no longer the same man who spent years struggling with injuries and inconsistency. He only averaged 4.1 yards per carry, but he always went against tough fronts and had to carry the rock whenever the opposition knew a run up the middle was coming.

The Panthers stuck to the running game, and like the Jets, they made sure to use it to set up the deep pass. Having a strong-nosed running back who can open up the passing game is becoming more valued these days, and it’s under this scope that we can start to see why the New England Patriots keep bringing back LeGarrette Blount to almost comically inexpensive deals.

Back to Carolina. The Panthers most-targeted player was understandably Greg Olsen, who has been one of the best five players at the tight end position over the past three seasons. He operated as their No. 1 receiver, somewhat in the same way that Rob Gronkowski or Delanie Walker are their team’s No. 1 targets.

After Olsen, the hodgepodge of mediocre Panthers wideouts had clearly defined roles. The sure-handed, but slow-as-pulled-pork Cotchery was the boring possession receiver with a 70% catch rate, and Ginn Jr. and Brown were critical deep threats.

The Panthers offense was so dangerous for two reasons. First of all, they had Newton, who accounted for a whopping 45 touchdowns. And secondly, because they generated big plays in the passing game after wearing down defenses with the run, resembling a sleeping giant. Take your eyes off of Ginn Jr. or Brown for a second, and you’re toast.

Ginn Jr.’s ten receiving touchdowns, including his streak of three straight games with two touchdown catches, display this point perfectly. You can harp on him for being a limited receiver who dropped too many passes, but if you get fixated on drops, you miss how important he was to this offense. Call him a one-trick pony, but please do understand the value it brings. Because it’s the one trick defensive coordinators hope you don’t have, and Newton, Ginn Jr., and Brown embarrassed many defenses that didn’t appropriately account for that deep speed.

Although the Panthers were led by the NFL’s MVP, they helped turn the talk of superstar offenses on its head. Stewart and Olsen are excellent players, but they showed that you can take seemingly below-average starters like Ginn Jr., Oher, Remmers, and Cotchery and build an elite offense from those pieces.

You just need a plan.

The Arrogant One…The Chip Kelly Story

“So weird” is the best way to describe many of Chip Kelly’s offseason moves before his last stand with the Philadelphia Eagles.

For as much as we glorified Kelly’s “system”, the truth is that the didn’t know what the heck he was doing. Case in point, our main discussions of his biggest offseason signing, 2014 rushing leader DeMarco Murray, centered around his “fit” in Kelly’s offense.

There was no fit. And how could there have been one? There was no structure in place to speak of. Kelly brought in so many new players in key positions (Sam Bradford, Nelson Agholor, Ryan Mathews, and Murray), and the result was an inefficient offense that finished 19th in net yards per pass attempt and 22nd in yards per carry.

As Chris Trapasso brilliantly points out, Kelly quickly parted ways with one player who seemed to fit his previous systems to a “T”. Remember, when the Eagles were winning games with Nick Foles, LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Jeremy Maclin, there was a system in place. Run the ball heavily, utilize an athletic offensive line, get the ball to a playmaking “X” receiver who can stretch the field, stay aggressive, and get your quarterback to throw the ball out quickly.

Maybe Maclin’s departure to the Kansas City Chiefs was the real move that screwed the Eagles, but I can’t help but think that switching out Shady for Murray and Mathews hurt them just as much. Fixing something that isn’t broken? Well, that seemed to be Kelly’s most pronounced effort in the 2015 season.

San Francisco 49ers fans can only hope that he has learned from his hot air-induced mistakes. Because the 49ers have Torrey Smith as his D-Jax, Bruce Ellington as his Jordan Matthews, Carlos Hyde as his north-south rusher, and Josh Garnett as his proof that he realizes what the guard position means, it looks like Kelly has seen the error in his ways.

But my, were his mishaps blatant. Kelly had no running game and a disjointed offensive line, undermining the foundation that caused him to reach the playoffs in 2013 and win ten games in 2014 despite awful QB play.

He had to funnel his offense through Jordan Matthews and Zach Ertz with running backs taking the place of the safety valves. So not only did Kelly have no running game, but with Bradford slinging the rock and no real outside threat at WR, the Eagles passing game was an easy-to-read, handicapped unit that averaged 10.7 yards per reception. If they wanted to play a short, horizontal passing attack, they should have had more weapons than two, since Matthews and Ertz had to do yeoman’s work with 100+ targets each.

Honestly, Ertz, Matthews, and Bradford deserve awards for their ability to create an accurate, functioning passing trio, because they are the only reason why the Eagles were 13th (and not like 23rd) in points per game.

Why I’m high on the Jacksonville Jaguars

I could conclude this post with some BS wrap-up, but I’ll talk about why I’m a big fan of the Jacksonville Jaguars offense.

They fit the profile of the type of offense I like to have, because they can beat you in multiple ways and seem to have been built with a purpose.

Blake Bortles is a flawed quarterback who throws plenty of interceptions, and, yes, I think Derek Carr is a better quarterback. However, I think the Jaguars will have the better offense, despite the fact that their offensive line is miles behind Oakland’s in quality.

Although Bortles will throw picks and is not an accurate quarterback, he should improve in both phases. This goes beyond the overly simplistic, “He’s shown consistent growth, so he’ll only keep growing,” argument, because that doesn’t always manifest itself. I have faith in Bortles’s ability to make better decisions, but the players around him alone should help his INT% and CMP%.

A fully healthy Julius Thomas with an offseason of work with Bortles is indeed huge, because having the red zone mis-match as an underneath threat will open things up. Thomas is the type of player who can have a 65-70% catch rate, relieve pressure off of the elite outside wide receiver duo of Allen Robinson and Allen Hurns, and make plays of his own with the ball.

Heading into his second season, Rashad Greene is a quick, smooth route-running possession receiver who has the talent to make strides after being a low-YPR non-factor as he got used to the NFL in his rookie year. The gap in athletic tools is steep, but Greene showed in college while working with Jameis Winston that he has the savvy to make up for it. Even if he ends up being a Jerricho Cotchery-type player, that’s helpful. In fact, he could be the kind of wide receiver who helps the Jaguars plenty as a No. 3 option on the inside.

If Marqise Lee is a “bonus” player, then I have no complaints. Maybe I was too high on him before the 2014 draft, but he moves so naturally and has such great reach that I have to hold out hope if he can stay healthy.

It’s easy to fall in love with the Jaguars passing game, because the “Allens” just might be the best wide receiver duo in the NFL. Then, when you consider Bortles’s talent and growth, as well as the emerging threats behind the top two targets, you only start to salivate more.

However, what makes me so high on the Jaguars potential as an offense, assuming they can bring these pieces together appropriately (I trust Greg Olson), is the running game. T.J. Yeldon should be better in his second season, but remember that Chris Ivory guy I talked about earlier in this piece? You know, the man who helped Fitzpatrick look good? He’s in Jacksonville, and he’s looking like the lead guy.

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Having two running backs capable of steadily moving the ball on every down is critical, and if Yeldon never makes good on his draft pedigree, then at least the Jags will have a proven 1,000-yard standout in Ivory. His violence and status as an underrated breakaway threat will help the Jaguars offense, passing game included, more than you can imagine. I mean, just look at how much a tough workhorse running back helped the Panthers last year and how much missing out on one hurt Green Bay.