San Diego Chargers: Keenan Allen Poised For Historic Season?

San Diego Chargers wide receiver Keenan Allen is poised to have a great season if he can stay healthy. But just how great could his 2016 season be?

July has come and gone, and August is here. With it, the 2016 NFL Season is just around the corner. Training camps have begun, and the hype surrounding just about any viable fantasy option is palpable. Most of it is just that; hype that will never be realized. However, one of the players that could be poised to have a breakout season is Chargers wide receiver, Keenan Allen.

A few days ago I mentioned on Twitter that I feel like Allen, thanks in part to the recent injury to fellow Chargers receiver Stevie Johnson, could be on the cusp of a historic season. With an already thin wide receiver corps in San Diego, the Johnson injury opens the door for a healthy Allen to challenge the all-time receptions mark of 143, set by Marvin Harrison in 2002.

While that is a lofty number to be certain, I stand by the original tweet and don’t think it’s out of the question for Allen to approach the 140-reception mark. Admittedly, this is predicated on Allen staying healthy for 16 games, which is something that he has struggled with during his young career, but operating under the assumption he manages to play every game, the record should be within reach.

What would Allen need to do to reach the 140 reception threshold? Based on Allen’s career reception percentage, Allen would need to be targeted a total of 205 times to haul in 140 receptions, which coincidentally is exactly the number of targets that Marvin Harrison had during his record-setting year.

However, Peyton Manning threw the ball nearly 600 times that season, giving Harrison 24 percent of the total targets. Philip Rivers, conversely, has averaged only 530 passing attempts per season, meaning that Allen would have to get an impressive 38% of the team’s total targets. So the question becomes, is 38 percent of the team’s targets even feasible?

Probably not, but it is entirely possible that he doesn’t have to. Each of the last three seasons, Rivers has surpassed his 530 career attempts average, exceeding that number by a ridiculous 131 last season. If Rivers were to throw that many passes again in 2016 (661), that percentage drops a whole 7 points down to a more reasonable 31 percent of targets.

Sure, 31 percent is still high, but let’s consider who else Rivers has to throw the ball to. Antonio Gates has been a consistent weapon throughout his NFL career, and he is going to command his fair share of targets. Rightly so, too. However, Gates isn’t getting any younger and, like Allen, has struggled to stay healthy recently. Provided Gates misses time this season, who is going to be there to pick up the slack? Allen.

Thanks at least in part to the Johnson injury, the Chargers signed veteran wide receiver James Jones this week to bolster a thin receiving corps, but realistically the signing won’t affect Allen’s targets in any significant way. If Jones was still a serviceable wide receiver, he would not have been on the market for so long.

Looking beyond Allen and Jones, the rest of the squad is unproven, at best.

There has been much hype since training camp opened swirling around Tyrell Williams, but do we really think an undrafted second-year player with two career receptions is going to put a dent in the number of targets Allen receives?

I would tend to say no.

When it’s all said and done, I do honestly believe the Allen could approach the 140 receptions mark. I don’t know if he will be able to surpass Harrison’s 143, but I think he can come close.

With that being said, I’m not entirely sold on Allen being a break-out fantasy stud. He will put up good numbers in your PPR leagues, for sure, but I don’t think you can count on him for week-to-week scoring production.

Receptions will be what carries Allen, not scoring. Throughout his young career, Allen has averaged just a tick over five touchdowns per season, and there isn’t any reason to believe that will be any different in the 2016 season. While he will see added chances, I don’t know that he will be able to turn those opportunities into fantasy production.

Gates, while he is in the lineup, is still going to be River’s favored target, especially when it comes to the red zone. Gates has proven over his lengthy career that he can be depended on upon as a large, athletic target when the team needs him most.

As for when Gates inevitably succumbs to injury, we come back to the fact that San Diego has no one other than Allen who poses any significant threat. Defenses are likely to either double-team Allen or shade coverages to his side of the field, limiting his overall effectiveness. The team will be able to scheme him a significant amount of touches (much like the Dolphins do with Jarvis Landry), but touchdowns are a much harder thing to manufacture.

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While I don’t think it’s likely, when all is said and done and the 2016 NFL regular season has come to an end, there’s a reasonable chance that we’ll be saying the new record for receptions in a season is held by none other than the Chargers’ Keenan Allen.