Oakland Raiders: Derek Carr’s next step comes down to trust

In a division open for the taking, the Oakland Raiders finally have an advantage at the quarterback position that they can wield for years to come.

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We’ve heard the criticism ever since he came into the league. Derek Carr can’t translate to the pros from Fresno State; he’ll be the second coming of his brother. Terrelle Pryor is better. Matt McGloin is better. Blake Bortles is better. Carr’s overrated.

Irrational takes are bound to float when a fan base as opinionated and impassioned as the Oakland Raiders’ is involved, but the vast majority of them know that they have one of the safest quarterback situations in the league right now.

Last season, Carr threw 32 touchdowns to 13 interceptions with a QB Rating of 91.1. His four fourth-quarter comebacks tied him for the league lead, and he was 12th in Football Outsider’s DYAR.

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That said, none of Carr’s numbers blew anybody away, and for as much as his second season represented clear progress from a rookie season on training wheels, it was far from a breakout campaign. Carr had a higher INT% than Jay Cutler, finished with a lower QB Rating than Brian Hoyer, and had a lower completion percentage than Blaine Gabbert.

Yes, some of you do enjoy cherry-picking stats.

However, something wonderful happens when you detach your eyes from the data.

Watch Carr’s touchdown pass to Amari Cooper. And then watch it again.

One-on-one matchup between Amari Cooper and the defensive back. Tight coverage. Second-and-nine. Safe option right in front of him.

From the moment he drops back to pass, Carr has his eyes deep, and moving his progressions from deep-to-short in the regular season will keep this Raiders offense aggressive.

This is an absolutely perfect pass, and it was one of a number of well-placed dimes Carr launched against the Tennessee Titans hapless secondary. Here, Cooper is not open at any point in his route, but Carr trusts that his young wide receiver will come up with the catch if the ball is thrown well enough.

As a rookie, Cooper impressed with 72 receptions for 1,070 yards, six touchdowns, and 14.9 yards per receptions. But something was missing. Whether it was the drops or a lack of a true rapport with Carr after just one offseason together, Cooper managed a catch rate of just 55.4%. That’s surprising for a player who was touted as an incredibly polished route-runner as a draft prospect.

Michael Crabtree‘s efficiency numbers were even worse. He had a catch rate of just 58.2% with 10.8 yards per reception for an average of just 6.32 yards per target; Crabtree was the Raiders most-targeted wide receiver. None of the Raiders with at least ten targets (four players) had a catch rate of 60% in 2015.

Those numbers are on Carr. In an offense with two 130-target wide receivers and no other player with 50 targets, Carr’s connection with his top two options is critical. You know how the Denver Broncos offense ran through Emmanuel Sanders and Demaryius Thomas last season? Well, that might be where the Raiders need to be if players like Clive Walford and Latavius Murray don’t have strong enough seasons.

During training camp, Carr and Cooper roomed together.

The story sounds like your typical offseason BS filler, but after you examine the evidence above, you wonder if “trust” is a missing piece for Carr and the Raiders offense.

Carr has two talented wide receivers with first-round pedigrees. Walford, Roberts, Murray, and DeAndre Washington seem like supporting pieces, but the Raiders playoff hopes rest on their trio of C’s.

Not only does Carr need to trust his mechanics and accuracy– he showed the latter trait in spades yesterday, masterfully avoiding the catch radius of defensive backs, particularly on his riskier attempts– but he needs to trust that his receivers will come down with it.

Crabtree, Carr, and Cooper spent just one offseason together before taking the field in 2015, so progress among them is an expectation. More importantly, it is a must, especially since there are finally actual expectations surrounding the Raiders organization.

The offensive line? It looks great, and Carr needs to trust it to keep him protected. He’s done an excellent job of reading through his progressions and making the right throw, looking particularly adept at quickly and competently making the decision to try something more vertical.

From what we’ve seen through years of college play, two NFL seasons, and his most recent display in the so-called “dress rehearsal” game, Carr has the tools and the mental processing to be a star quarterback.

When the 2016 regular season starts, the difference between another decent season from Carr and a playoff-caliber one could be trust, both in himself and in his receivers.

Trust comes from comfort, which stems from experience. When talking about what it takes to become a better deep passer, Carr said, via ESPN NFL Nation’s Paul Gutierrez, “Rep after rep.”

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Here’s what Crabtree had to say about Carr’s deep ball to him on third-and-three in yesterday’s game:

"“That’s a lot of practice, man. We’ve been practicing the go-ball really, all the reps. The chemistry. I mean, it was a good ball. I don’t think he could have thrown it any better.”"

Practice, repetition, confidence, and results. Last season, 24 quarterbacks averaged more yards per attempt than Carr, and I’m betting that will happen. He just needs to trust the hours he’s put in with his receivers, his ability to get it to his receiver in stride in the perfect location, and his receiver’s ability to make the catch.