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Fantasy Football: LeGarrette Blount’s projection with Eagles

By Dan Thomas

Dec 6, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks (95) attempts to tackle New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) during the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports
Dec 6, 2015; Foxborough, MA, USA; Philadelphia Eagles linebacker Mychal Kendricks (95) attempts to tackle New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount (29) during the second quarter at Gillette Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Stew Milne-USA TODAY Sports /
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Running back LeGarrette Blount has signed with the Philadelphia Eagles. How should fantasy football owners feel about this transaction?

Last season with the New England Patriots running back LeGarrette Blount set career highs in rushing attempts (299), rushing yards (1,161) and rushing touchdowns (18). His 18 rushing touchdowns led the NFL and he found the end zone in all but three games. He was a RB1 in fantasy football and finished ahead of guys like Melvin Gordon and Jay Ajayi.

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Well, that was last year.

This year Blount will be joining the Philadelphia Eagles. As far as current situations go, this is arguably the best landing spot possible for Blount. He will presumably be the early-down hammer on first and second down for the Eagles while also serving as the team’s primary running back near the goal line. As good as a spot this is for Blount, he is nowhere near RB1 status like a season ago.

Let’s get the obvious statement out of the way: Blount will not score 18 rushing touchdowns like he did in 2016. In fact, I believe it’s unlikely he reaches double-digit rushing touchdowns in 2017. Why do I think this?

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Before last year, Blount’s highest total of rushing touchdowns in a season was seven, and that came back in 2013. That means in six out of seven years in the NFL, Blount has failed to reached double-digit touchdowns. Despite their offseason additions and the faith I have in Carson Wentz, the Eagles are not on the same planet as the Patriots in terms of offensive production.

The other obvious statement (at least to me) is Blount will not rush for 1,000 yards next season like he did in 2016. Why do I also think this?

Well, it’s basically the same logic I just used predicting Blount scoring under 10 rushing touchdowns in 2017. Before last year, Blount went five-straight seasons under 1,000 rushing yards. Other than last year, the only time Blount rushed for 1,000 yards came back in his rookie season in 2010. As mentioned before, Philadelphia’s offense will not be anywhere near as potent as New England”s was last season.

Last year, the Eagles top-two leading rushers, Ryan Mathews and Darren Sproles, combined for 1,099 rushing yards on 249 attempts. With Mathews now looking like a goner, Blount should see right around 200 carries in the Eagles backfield. Unless he’s going to average 5.0 yards per carry (something both David Johnson and Le’Veon Bell didn’t do last season) 1,000 yards seems unlikely.

Also, don’t forget Blount is non-existent in the passing game. Since 2012 he as averaged 5 receptions and 35 yards on 7 targets per season.

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Final Projection

Although I do not believe Blount will reach 1,000 rushing yards or 10 touchdowns in 2017, he should be relatively close to both marks. His rushing yards should be in the 800-900 range while his rushing touchdowns should be around 7-9.

This type of production should make him a top 23-26 fantasy football running back next season. With that projection, owners should not be looking to draft Blount anytime before the seventh round in 10-team leagues.

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