Denver Broncos: What’s Demaryius Thomas’ value in fantasy football?
By Bruce Matson
Can Denver Broncos wideout Demaryius Thomas finish the 2017 season as one of the top wide receivers in fantasy?
Demaryius Thomas finished the 2016 season accumulating 1,083 yards and five touchdowns for the Denver Broncos. This was his fifth-straight season with at least 1,000 yards receiving. He finished the year ranked 16th in the league at wide receiver with 230.3 PPR (point per reception) fantasy points which equated to a 14.1 points per game average.
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Last year was his worst performance in fantasy since 2011, gaining only 551 yards and four touchdowns. He was only targeted 144 times last year while only netting 12.0 yards per reception. His 7.52 yards per target was the third lowest of his career. There wasn’t enough passing volume in the offense to elevate Thomas to WR1 status last year. Opportunity is everything in fantasy football, and it’s hard to finish as one of the top wide receivers in fantasy if there’s a limited amount of passing volume within the offense.
His value in fantasy is going to be tethered to the play of the starting quarterback and if either Paxton Lynch or Trevor Siemian are inefficient at passing the ball then Thomas’ overall output could potentially suffer. Quality of targets are very important, because if the majority of the targets are off the mark, then there’s a good chance his production will decrease, limiting his potential in fantasy football.
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Keep in mind, he’s still the most talented skilled player on the roster and will command the ball in every game that he plays in. The passing offense runs through him and he will see a large market share of the targets. If he can transition more of his targets into catches then he could potentially return to being one of the top receivers in fantasy. Talent is definitely not the issue with Thomas, because when it comes to ability, he’s one of the better wide receivers in the league.
Production vs. price is what fantasy football is all about and Thomas’ cost will dictate whether he’s worth taking a look at in fantasy drafts this year. A low draft position will provide a potential value but an inflated draft position could potentially add risk to Thomas’ stock due to the price it took to acquire his services.
According to FantasyPros.com, Thomas is nestled in with an average draft position of 32.7, making him a mid to late third-round pick in most fantasy drafts. He’s usually the 14th wide receiver off the board, allowing him to be valued as a WR2 in most leagues. Gauging the potential passing volume of Denver’s offense, his value seems to be dead on the money, because there’s a good chance that he finishes the year as a high-end WR2.
However, unlike most wide receivers being selected in his range, Thomas has the ability to turn on the jets and finish as one of the top receivers in the league. Again, he has all the talent in the world, but the passing volume has to be just right for him to finish in the upper echelon in fantasy football.
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Even with Thomas being on the back nine of his career, he is still one of the most talented wide receivers in the league. He deserves more respect than what he is receiving since he’s currently and after thought in most fantasy leagues. He has the potential to finish the year as one of the most productive wide receivers in the league, the only thing in his way is the potential output from the starting quarterbacks.