Cincinnati Bengals Preseason: 3 Takeaways vs Colts

Elliott Might Not Make It

Draft picks are the most valuable assets a team has for building their team. The players they acquire come on super-cheap, cost-controlled contracts for multiple seasons. If a team has an immediate need, the picks can be traded to bring in specifically-targeted players who other teams are willing to see depart.

Suffice to say, they shouldn’t be wasted, and Cincinnati is one of the league’s teams most hesitant to essentially just toss one away within the span of a few months. That’s what makes the competition the team has held at kicker worth watching this preseason, and what makes it surprising we’ve ended up at the point where the guy they drafted may not be who they actually continue forward with.

Randy Bullock was clearly meant to just be a fill-in when he was grabbed off the scrap heap at the end of last season. He found himself playing for three teams last year and only got the call in Cincinnati after Mike Nugent suddenly forgot how to hit PAT kicks (he missed as many of those as he did field goals in 2016: 6). A decent showing in limited action did enough to keep him around after the year, and he may have done enough this preseason to secure the kicking job despite the presence of 2017 draftee Jake Elliott.

The past two games could be the difference. Through two contests, neither players missed a kick. Bullock missed a 47-yard attempt against the Colts, but Elliott has missed three of his four total kicks in that time.

Now, this alone shouldn’t simply be a death sentence to his chances. Those Elliott misses were all from 40+ yards, including a last-ditch 60 yard attempt against the Colts. Sitting around 70 percent is about average for those, and in a small sample size a couple misses seem like a lot more than they may be. Speaking of that percentage, that’s exactly what Eliott averaged on 40+ yard attempts in four years of college, so a major drop should be unexpected.

Still, Bullock is working with that same small sample size in this competition. His four-year career average for those distance attempts is essentially the same as Elliott (Bullock is 34-of-50 from 40+ yards in four NFL seasons; Elliott was 35-of-50 in college on them). Each player got five tries from that distance this preseason, and Bullock clearly did better on them (4-of-5, compared to 1-of-5).

Elliott may have been the draft pick, provide a boost on kickoffs and overall leg strength, but it may not be enough to save him from getting cut. Somebody must be chosen, and Bullock has outperformed him. He possibly could be better than Bullock, but he didn’t show it in this competition.

While Cincinnati tends to lean towards keeping their young draftees, their kicking was such a problem that it legitimately cost them at least a couple games last year; had it been better, that 6-9-1 team could’ve easily been 5-5 as the season hit December (rather than 3-6-1), much better set to make a late run at the postseason. Doing their best to make sure what’s widely considered a better roster is able to have a better season involves having the kicker they believe will help them the most right now.

Next: NFL 2017: Predicting one disappointment from each team

Picking Bullock over Elliott may end up being wrong, both for the short-term and beyond, but strictly going off the evidence provided by their preseason competition and what the team is trying to avoid (i.e.: another kicker who directly loses games for them) Elliott’s claim to a roster spot has faded.

Certainly, this wasn’t expected when Cincinnati selected him in the 5th round of the draft this year.