Cincinnati Bengals: Predicting how rookies will perform

Joe Mixon, RB

Expected Role: No. 3 RB to start; No. 1 by season’s end

2017 Statistical Prediction: 16 games (6 starts), 140 rushes, 588 rushing yards, 23 catches, 168 receiving yards, 6 TDs (5 rushing, 1 receiving)

Cincinnati’s running game the past couple of seasons has been, in theory, exactly what teams today are looking for in the backfield. Two capable players (Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard) with vastly different skill-sets (up-the-middle pounder, elusive in-space receiver-type) who complement each other.

It’s been a decent combination, sure, but not exactly a league-leading one. The two have helped Cincinnati rank on the outskirts of the top 10 for Football Outsiders’ Run Offense DVOA two of the past three seasons, but last season the team fell to No. 13 in the metric.

Also, as individual contributors, the two often aren’t as valuable as they may seem. According to Pro Football Focus Edge‘s metrics, both rank on the lower end of average in for most of their careers (Bernard has twice been above a 75 overall PFF grade, but just once in the past three seasons; Hill has never been above a 73). With Bernard coming off a torn ACL and Hill proving limited and lacking explosion, things were set to be pretty bleak in the backfield this season.

Enter Mixon.

He has the sort of enticing ability on the field that even with his deplorable off-field actions (re: assaulting a woman) he was expected to be drafted highly by plenty of pre-draft prognosticators. Though he didn’t go in the first round, Cincinnati clearly thought enough of him to trade up in the second. Even with all that talent, however, a slow start to the year should be expected.

Cincinnati has already listed him as their No. 3 RB to enter the season, and they are notorious for slowly bringing along young players (or the flipside: unseating their veterans). As the season goes along though, he should begin getting some snaps; eventually, his talent advantage will shine through.

He provides not only the stylistic abilities of Bernard, but he takes them to another level — especially considering it may take until 2018 for the latter to completely return to normal following his 2016 ACL tear. He may not be quite the banger in the middle Hill is, but he could do enough up the middle to outpace him later in the year. Mixon is definitely the more explosive of the two, and that will be a huge factor taken into consideration.

Assuming health, I’d be surprised if Mixon isn’t sitting atop the depth chart by the season’s end. He’ll still likely split carries on some level, but things should lean decidedly in his favor overall.