Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 season record prediction
By Kenn Korb
Week 5: Buffalo at Cincinnati
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 3-1
The schedule continues on an expected easy path with Buffalo coming to town.
They may not outright admit to it, but the moves they’ve made this offseason signal a full-scale rebuilding effort in progress. Buffalo has shipped out young pieces like Sammy Watkins and Ronald Darby for high draft picks; at the same time, they’ve continued to treat their presumed starting quarterback poorer than anybody outside of Washington. They do have some talent spread throughout the roster, but most either are too old or unproven to be part of their long-term plan. Suffice to say, this could be a long, ugly season for the Bills.
They should still be able to run the ball effectively though (No. 1 in Rush Offense DVOA in 2016), and that could limit the opportunities Cincinnati has to attack a Buffalo defense in the midst of a transition to a 4-3 base defense — a lineup change which may actually fit the strengths of their current-best players much better than former head coach Rex Ryan’s failed 3-4 switch.
There may not be many wins coming for Buffalo in 2017 (including in this game), but this contest could embody exactly what we see from them all year: game effort all around that falls short to more talented squads.
Their present folly could help them in the next couple years, but for this week it will assist Cincinnati as they continue a hot start.
Cincinnati: 23, Buffalo: 16
Week 6: Cincinnati’s Bye Week
Current Cincinnati Record: 4-1
The bye week comes at a good time. It is inevitable that at least a few players will go down with injuries by now; for those who aren’t sent to IR, this may give them the reprieve needed before a return to the field. The rest will be coming before one of the team’s most important games of the season as well: a road trip to Pittsburgh.
Week 7: Cincinnati at Pittsburgh
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 4-1
The extra week of rest and planning could be essential to forcing an upset; on that front, Cincinnati needs all the help they can get. All time they are 35-60 against their rivals, and it only gets worse in the Andy Dalton era.
In the 13 matchups (12 regular season, 1 playoff) between the teams since 2011, Cincinnati is an abysmal 3-10 against the Steelers. Half of those games have been decided by double-digits; Cincinnati is 1-5 in those contests. Those decided by one score haven’t been much kinder to them (2-5), they’ve lost four straight regardless of the margin.
The games have trended closer in the past few years however (four of the past five were decided by one score), and in those instances just a couple breaks give Cincinnati the win. That playoff game in particular had to see a late fumble and a bundle of flags all go against Cincinnati in a very short timeframe, and of course their two losses to Pittsburgh that year were without full games from Andy Dalton.
Pittsburgh is their roadblock, and stands as one of the true Super Bowl contenders this season. A win for this young Bengals team on the road against their kryptonite would be monumental for them, but seems far-fetched at this point.
Expect the defense to get lit up while their offense can’t keep pace through four quarters. Hopefully, it won’t also leave the teams brutalized injury-wise like these matchups have done in recent years.
Pittsburgh: 37, Cincinnati: 23
Week 8: Indianapolis at Cincinnati
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 4-2
This may be about as tough of a game to get a read on as there is on Cincinnati’s schedule. Obviously, with a healthy Andrew Luck Indianapolis would be a tough out. What we still don’t know is when he’s actually going to start playing because he’s still been recovering from offseason surgery.
How well Indianapolis does this year is tied completely to him. If he only misses a week or two, they should be expected to stay right in the playoff hunt throughout the season. If he misses a large chunk of the season — or even doesn’t play at all (which is plausible if the team’s record is bad enough by the time he’d be able to return to the field) — the Colts could easily have one of the worst records in the NFL.
For now, I’m going in with the thought that he’ll be ready to play by Week 5. In that time, the team probably won’t have much success without him, but his return instantly gives them the boost necessary to have them around .500 by this game.
Cincinnati’s offense should be able to dominate in the air and on the ground against a still-weak Indianapolis defense, but with Luck on the other end this should be a high-scoring affair that goes down to the wire.
What will be key is Cincinnati’s running game. Gashing that run defense not only keeps their offense moving steadily, but it keeps Luck off the field and limits his potential opportunities to take over the game.
By now I expect the team will still be beholden to the tandem of Jeremy Hill and Giovani Bernard heading their running attack. For Cincinnati to take another step offensively, that pairing needs to be broken through by Joe Mixon. Cincinnati is often loathe to put their young players in major roles early, but a failure by their usual tandem to help keep Luck on the sidelines could lead to a loss in this contest. Hopefully it will also mean a midseason switch to a more Mixon-centric rushing attack as well.
Indianapolis: 31, Cincinnati: 27
Week 9: Cincinnati at Jacksonville
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 4-3
The second of three straight games against AFC South opponents; also, the first of three straight games on the road for Cincinnati.
Needless to say, this is an important contest for determining how the Bengals’ season will turn out. A win means they’re sitting pretty at 5-3 halfway through the season; repeat that across the second half and they’re at 10-6 with great odds for a playoff spot. A loss means 4-4; with it, they are thrust down into the middle of the pack and in need of a major run to end the year if they are to make the playoffs.
Among the teams they play in 2017, they probably couldn’t have asked for a better one to face at such a crucial juncture. Jacksonville may end up with an elite defense this season. They were 12th in Defensive DVOA for 2016 and have since added Calais Campbell, A.J. Bouye, and other talents through the draft and free agency to the unit. If everyone coalesces and grows quickly, that could be a top five unit.
It won’t matter much if, as expected, their offense is atrocious yet again. They did add Leonard Fournette in the draft to power the run game, and there are multiple intriguing skill players for their quarterback to target.
They still don’t have much of an offensive though, so the man behind center won’t have much time to throw and Fournette won’t have quality holes to run through. What trumps everything is that Blake Bortles is their quarterback yet again, and no matter how good the team gets elsewhere his poor play will torpedo their efforts to win every chance he’s given.
Teams can still win with Jacksonville’s current formula (Denver recently won a Super Bowl with it; Houston made last year’s playoffs with it), but it’s devilishly difficult and requires so many positive breaks. I don’t see those working out for Jacksonville often enough to get to the playoffs, or to win this particular game. They’ll keep things closer than expected, but ultimately fall short due to mistakes by Bortles that Cincinnati’s defense will happily oblige.