Cincinnati Bengals: 2017 season record prediction
By Kenn Korb
Week 14: Chicago at Cincinnati
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 7-5
Nothing provides a pick-me-up after a tough loss to your bitter rivals quite like a team competing for high draft picks more than victories coming to your stadium.
Chicago may have made some excitement with their drafting of Mitchell Trubisky as the quarterback of the future, but that won’t help them this season. The team already paid big to bring in long-time backup Mike Glennon to be their starter, and with a steep expected learning curve for Trubisky (good preseason notwithstanding) he should be behind center for as much of this year as possible.
Regardless of who takes the snaps, this should be a delight for a defense that’ll be ecstatic to face a team whose skill positions are much less of a threat (try to name one starting running back or receiver for them).
Their defense actually has some decent pieces, but in no way do they have anything close to a cohesive unit. By now, they may not even have a head coach (drafting 1st round QBs can help job security only so much when your record consistently stinks). This should be a nice “get well” game for Cincinnati on both sides of the ball, with the score to back that assumption up.
Cincinnati: 35, Chicago: 13
Week 15: Cincinnati at Minnesota
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 8-5
It’s a good thing Cincinnati has that game against the Bears the week before to get themselves going; they’ll need it. In their second of three straight games versus the NFC North, Cincinnati faces a Minnesota team fighting for a playoff berth.
This team will be yet another powerful defense for this Cincinnati offense to face. They should know what to expect of course: their former defensive coordinator is the head coach there. It won’t make the task of overcoming Minnesota any easier, but they should be mentally prepared for the challenging task at hand.
Every level of the defense brings speed and athleticism to the table. A deep and talented defensive line will eat up any weakness shown by Cincinnati’s young offensive tackles. The linebackers can snuff out a lot of short passes and dumpoffs to runners. Corners like Xavier Rhodes can stick like glue to even the best receivers in the league, and Harrison Smith is ready to make plays on any errant throws across the middle.
What Cincinnati would need to win here is efficient, turnover-free ball from the offense while forcing the exact opposite with their defense. Unless things have drastically changed from 2016, it doesn’t seem like either is a decent bet to go Cincinnati’s way.
The Bengals were middling (tied-19th) in takeaways last season, while Minnesota was 26th in total giveaways; that points to Cincinnati having a tough time getting the ball away from a risk-averse unit. Meanwhile, while Cincinnati was 23rd in giveaways, Minnesota was among the league leaders in takeaways (tied-seventh); that could break either way.
I think Minnesota will have right sort of gameplan to beat a team like the Bengals (again: their former coordinator is Minnesota’s head coach), and though it should remain close throughout the Bengals will come down with another tally in the loss column.
Minnesota: 23, Cincinnati: 20
Week 16: Detroit at Cincinnati
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 8-6
Another week, another NFC North opponent. Also, another week against a playoff hopeful. The Lions are not Minnesota though; instead, they offer a different beast to contend with. While Minnesota was a limited offensive outfit attached to a speedy, athletic defense, Detroit finds themselves on the opposite ends of the spectrum.
Their offense lacks explosiveness and consistent rushing ability, but Matthew Stafford has proven great enough in the short and medium range that he keeps his offense chugging along. No team averaged more plays per drive in 2016 than his unit, and his willingness to keep steady without trying to force downfield action like he did when Calvin Johnson was still around makes this possibly one of the most frustrating offenses to face.
Think about it: it may not bring the inevitable feeling of dread that facing Aaron Rodgers or Tom Brady does, but because of the nature of the playcalls there is often nothing defenders can do but hope they make a mistake. that’s it’s own level of hopelessness, with a special degree of frustration (because it’s less a talent issue than a design one, and it is the design that cannot be beaten, not the players utilizing it).
Lions’ offensive coordinator Jim Bob Cooter (most fun name in the league) found something that works ruthlessly well with his personnel about two seasons ago, and until someone stops it consistently he has a plan that will keep the chains moving on a consistent basis. Cincinnati will find itself just like everyone else on that front this week, and a few of those long drives will lead to scores for Detroit.
Luckily, as good as their offense is, the Lions’ defense should be terrible yet again. They had the worst Defensive DVOA, Weighted Defensive DVOA, and Run Defense DVOA in 2016, and little has changed to suggest they’ll be all that much better this season.
Ezekiel Ansah should play more than two games this time, but his health is already a question entering this year. Kerry Hyder was their best pass rushing piece last year; this year, he’s out for the season due to injury. They added D.J. Hayden, Teez Tabor, and Jarrad Davis in the draft/free agency, but those are all flawed players who may never become consistent contributors.
I expect Cincinnati will be able to score essentially at will with their deep collection of skill position talents. To win, that’s exactly what they’ll need to do, and because of Detroit’s offensive style, they will have little room for stalled drives or errors.
This will be the game which decides whether Cincinnati is ready to return to the postseason. In a hotly contested battle, on their final drive, I think they pass the test in emphatic fashion.
Cincinnati: 27, Detroit: 24
Week 17: Cincinnati at Baltimore
Pregame Cincinnati Record: 9-6
To end the regular season, Cincinnati gets to face their rival Ravens. Based on how I think the year will go for Baltimore, they’ll be playing the role of spoiler here for a likely playoff-bound Cincinnati squad.
Nothing will be confirmed yet though, and a win will still be necessary to lock them into a wild card slot. Surely, their rivals would love nothing more at this point than to cost Cincinnati a playoff berth, so it won’t be an easy matchup.
Of their bitter rivals to get matched up against, they’ll probably appreciate it being Baltimore rather than Pittsburgh. They’ve mostly had Baltimore’s number in recent seasons, and that trend should continue.
Baltimore may end up with a better defense, but Cincinnati has an outside shot at surpassing them on that front because of all their recent young talent acquisitions; by the final game of the season, many of them could have key roles within the unit. Carl Lawson and Jordan Willis could finally unseat Michael Johnson from his starting defensive end spot. Andrew Billings could overtake Pat Sims as the starting nose tackle. William Jackson III could show he’s ready to take the starting role from Adam Jones. If a good portion of them do, the defense is instantly scarier.
Offensively, Cincinnati is far and away the better side. Andy Dalton is a better quarterback than Joe Flacco. Jeremy Hill, Giovani Bernard, and Joe Mixon each are better than any of Baltimore’s running back options. Cincinnati’s wideout depth can challenge any NFL team in terms of talent/skill; Baltimore has to hope a group consisting of aging castoffs and an injury-prone youngster who’s done very little since being drafted a few years ago won’t all fall apart across 16 games (something that is apparently a major issue for their roster as a whole, based on the numerous injuries they’ve suffered before the season has even kicked off).
Next: NFL 2017: 20 Bold predictions for Week 1
Baltimore’s defense and veteran pride won’t let them suffer a blowout to end another disappointing campaign, but it won’t be enough to overcome the gap in offensive talent.
Cincinnati wins it, reaching double-digit victories and returning to the playoffs for the sixth time in the past seven seasons.