Cincinnati Bengals: Players to watch vs. Titans in Week 10
By Kenn Korb
1. Andy Dalton
This offense was supposed to be so much better in 2017. A.J. Green and Giovani Bernard were returning healthy after injuries halted their 2016 campaigns. Numerous skill position guys were added in the draft. As a function of the skill player talent acclimation, the team entered the year with seven wideouts on their depth chart. Though he stepped back in 2016, Dalton was still a decently effective quarterback. Though the line was a worry, the tools seemed in line for an improved group that would help get this team back to the playoffs.
Turns out things weren’t nearly as rosy as they first appeared.
Cincinnati has one of the league’s worst offenses. They are last in total yardage, last in rushing yardage, and 28th in passing yardage. Efficiency does them no favors, either; they rank 26th in Offensive DVOA, 26th in Pass Offense DVOA, and 29th in Rush Offense DVOA.
It isn’t all on Dalton, by the way. Statistically, for the most part he hasn’t been nearly as bad as the team-wide stats indicate; it just hasn’t been enough to overcome the vast problems brought on around him. Through Week 9, he’s 17th in completion percentage (62.7 percent), 20th in passing yardage (1,739), 14th in yards per attempt (7.37), tied for 16th in touchdown passes (11), 6th-worst in interceptions (8), tied for 6th-most sacks taken (24), and 20th in passer rating (86.5).
The advanced stats really show where Dalton has fallen short the most this year, however. He’s 25th in Football Outsiders’ DYAR, 25th in individual DVOA, and 28th in ESPN’s QBR. The discrepancy between the two sets of stats is basically this: for the most part Dalton has been average, but he has fallen especially short in the most important situations he’s faced this season, and on top of that he needs more help than other quarterbacks to be successful,.
The premise of that idea has been what’s hounded Dalton throughout his career, but it isn’t as if he doesn’t have the physical or mental ability to improve. We all saw 2015 — though he definitely was helped by having the most talented supporting cast of his career that season, Dalton rightfully deserved plenty of credit for the way that season worked out before he got injured.
He’s probably not going to magically pull that version of himself out of thin air this week, but a decent facsimile of it would go a long way to reversing Cincinnati’s fortunes. Tennessee’s defense has multiple talented pieces, but the group has underperformed throughout the first half of the year. Though the run defense has been good (12th in Rush Defense DVOA), they’ve been below-average against the pass (22nd in Pass Defense DVOA). Their pass rush and secondary have talent, but they have been inconsistent and can be exploited.
Dalton won’t lack for options to target. A.J. Green somehow wasn’t suspended for trying to punch through Jalen Ramsey’s helmet, so he’ll be available. 2017 first-round draftee John Ross has been a major disappointment, but fellow rookie Josh Malone has been performing well in recent weeks. Tyler Kroft has managed a nice Tyler Eifert impression since taking over the starting role. Tyler Boyd may be returning from injury.
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The line is going to be a problem, but that can’t just be accepted as an insurmountable hurdle. Dalton must fight through the inevitable pressure that comes his way and get the ball into his playmakers’ hands in an effective, timely manner. He’s got to actually hit his mark, especially when the team goes deep (he was 0-for-3 on his 20+ yard attempts against Jacksonville). He must not put the ball into the opponent’s hands.
Winning here probably won’t be enough to save those meager playoff hopes for Cincinnati, nor will it change the overall perception of Dalton by fans and the media. It would keep the postseason pipe dream alive for another weeks though, and though 4-5 wouldn’t be exciting it’s much better for all involved than 3-6.