Cincinnati Bengals: 3 Reasons for win vs. Broncos in Week 11

1. Turning Turnovers Into Scores

Making the big interception to flip the field and the early goings of the contest was a key starting point for Cincinnati’s eventual win, but it technically didn’t add anything to the scoreboard itself; while Kirkpatrick ran the length of the field, he was stopped a yard short of the endzone.

It would take a few plays by the offense, but the Bengals would eventually turn the interception into points. Their ability to do this not once, but twice, on the afternoon would prove key to their hopes of victory.

We’ve discussed the first turnover, but the timing of the second would prove even more critical to the way the game played out at the end. Cincinnati had just gone on their second-best drive of the game to that point, but after seven plays they stalled out near midfield and had to punt yet again. That punt would pin Denver at their own 10, but the Broncos found some rhythm and got up to their own 41. With multiple 10+ yard plays on the drive already, it seemed Denver would work their way into scoring range and maybe even take the lead in a 13-10 contest.

That’s where things flipped in Cincinnati’s favor again. A handoff to C.J. Anderson ended up coming loose after a perfectly placed hit by Vontaze Burfict, and Shawn Williams recovered the ball. With great field position again (this time at the Denver 44), Cincinnati would manage to reach the endzone in six plays to go up 20-10 with just under nine minutes in the 4th quarter remaining.

Turnovers (and scoring off them) are key points of any NFL game, but a team like Cincinnati needs help from things such as this more often than pretty much any team in the NFL to win. They cannot sustain drives (31st in time of possession). They are terrible on third down — both as an offense (28th in Third Down Conversion Percentage) and as a defense (30th in Opponent Third Down Conversion Percentage). They rank 20th or worse in 14 out of 18 Football Outsiders’ Offensive Drive Stats.

Next: NFL 2017: 20 Bold predictions for Week 12

As this game showed though, forcing turnovers can overcome all of these problems. Cincinnati hasn’t been great in that department in 2017 (they only have 10; tied for 27th in the NFL), but at least part of that comes down to dumb luck. If luck bounces their way a bit more often in the coming weeks, it isn’t out of the question that this 4-6 team could somehow actually still put themselves into the playoffs.

Amazing how much can change in a week.