Pittsburgh Steelers: Evaluating playoff scenarios entering Week 16

The Pittsburgh Steelers are two weeks away from the postseason as they try to clinch a first round bye. A look at their playoff scenarios at Week 16.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have had quite the 2017 campaign. With a mere two weeks to spare, the Steelers have already clinched the AFC North for a second straight season, while currently clinging on to the second seed in the conference.

This past week, the Steelers had an opportunity to not only exercise demons against the Patriots, but also essentially secure the top seed in the AFC with a win at Heinz Field. As certain events would have it, New England emerged victorious and now can win out to have the path to the Super Bowl go through Foxborough.

However despite losing their tie-breaker to New England, Pittsburgh controls their own destiny for the rest of the way in terms of securing a first round bye. Jacksonville continues to hang around the picture, and currently holds the tie-breaker between the two after a 30-9 defeat earlier in the season. What are the possibilities for Pittsburgh heading into Week 16?

Currently: Steelers hold No. 2 seed

As previously stated, the Steelers currently hold the No. 2 seed with New England above them and Jacksonville below them. The current playoff picture displays matchups Jacksonville (3) vs. Buffalo (6) and Kansas City (4) vs. Tennessee (5). Should the Jaguars win their theoretical wildcard game, they would make a return to Pittsburgh for a Divisional rRund matchup. If Jacksonville were to be upset, the Steelers would play the winner of the theoretical KC/TEN game.

However, the game of football is forever changing and thus the playoff seedings tend to follow suit. The current playoff picture could be drastically different two weeks from now, as this is assuming the season ends now and nothing changes.

Week 16 Scenarios

Pittsburgh would officially clinch a first round bye this week with a win in Houston and a Jacksonville loss/tie against San Francisco. The Steelers are a much different (and better) team than the one we saw play the Jaguars in the early parts of the season, and should be able to produce a similar result to the Jaguars 45-7 over the Texans this previous week.

This would also require a San Francisco upset to take place, although the Niners have put together a small win streak and defeated Jacksonville’s divisional foe, Tennessee, last week. Pittsburgh can also claim a week off in the playoffs in the rare event of a tie with the Texans and a loss by Jacksonville. However, that scenario remains extremely unlikely.

According to the New York Times, the Steelers currently have a 22 percent chance of grabbing the No. 1 seed, while the probability of clinching one of two top seeds sits at 58 percent. Should Pittsburgh, New England and Jacksonville all win in Week 16, the chances of clinching a first round bye shoot up to 69 percent.

Week 17 Scenarios    

With so much still hanging in the balance, Week 17 scenarios are still a stretch to figure out. However, the path remains clear and simple: Win. Should Pittsburgh win in Week 16, they travel home to face the winless Cleveland Browns in what would appear to be an easy win. However as we have learned, nothing is impossible in professional football.

For the sake of sanity and your reading, the following scenarios will be played out by how the Steelers can reach the desired seeding:

1. For the Steelers to reach the No. 1 seed, Pittsburgh would need New England to drop one of their last two games while Pittsburgh wins out. This would put the Steelers ahead record wise since the Patriots own the head-to-head tie-breaker. The Patriots are at home for their final two games, both against the Bills and Jets.
2. In order for Pittsburgh to get the two seed (the most likely to happen at this point), there exists three options: Have Jacksonville lose at least one game while Pittsburgh wins either week, or New England/Pittsburgh both finish with the same record in the last two weeks, or Pittsburgh wins out along with JAX/NE.
3. In order for the Steelers to drop to the third seed, Jacksonville would need to finish with an equal or better record. This is only possible should Pittsburgh drop one of their two final games, with Jacksonville winning at least one of two to draw even and bump Pittsburgh out due to head to head record.

Overall Playoff Outlook

The good news for Pittsburgh is that regardless of the next two weeks, they will get to host a playoff game as the team can dip no lower than the No. 3 seed. However the Steelers would love nothing more than to grab a coveted first round bye and get the team’s health back on track.

Jacksonville is beginning to build momentum as the playoffs near, yet Pittsburgh’s destiny lies within themselves and a possible slip-up with the Patriots rather than Jacksonville. While the number one seed might feel a little out of reach when taking New England’s play of late into consideration, the Steelers control their own destiny and are more likely than not to at least place in the top two of the AFC seedings.

Next: NFL QB Power Rankings 2017: Week 16

However, the game of football is not played on paper, as all teams must play before any assumptions can churn itself into reality. The Steelers have garnered a reputation for playing down to inferior competition in recent years, and with Houston and Cleveland on deck, the closing of the 2017 regular season is anything but a guarantee. The NFL is the world’s greatest reality show, and the Steelers find themselves right in the middle of the chaos heading into the post-season.