Cincinnati Bengals Non-Playoff Team Free Agency Targets: Dallas Cowboys

We’ve embarked on a series looking at free agents the Cincinnati Bengals should pursue on teams which sat out the 2017 playoffs. Next up: the Dallas Cowboys.

After reaching the playoffs every year from 2011-2015, the Cincinnati Bengals fell short of the postseason for the second year in a row. Now they await NFL Free Agency in 2018, which could be key for them getting back in the mix.

Entering the offseason, we started with a series that highlighted players from playoff teams that the Bengals could look at in free agency. Now, the focus has turned to the other teams that weren’t in the postseason.

We’ve previously taken a look at players from the Oakland Raiders, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers, Indianapolis Colts, Houston Texans, Cleveland Browns, Ravens, Miami Dolphins, New York Jets,Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Seattle Seahawks, Arizona Cardinals, San Francisco 49ers, and New York Giants. Next up: the Dallas Cowboys.

Anthony Hitchens, LB

After blowing the league away with a 13-3 record in 2016, Dallas took a major drop back to the pack and missed the playoffs last season. The offense’s issues were what drew headlines, but the defense was just as much at fault. Much of their prior success was directly connected to being fresh and energized due to a ball-control, turnover-averse offense keeping them off the field; without that same help, the unit’s effectiveness dropped off drastically.

As with any unit, there were good and bad pieces which made it up. For Dallas’ defense, Hitchens was actually one of the positive ones. It was probably unexpected. He was on the field for 500+ snaps (50+ percent of total defensive snaps) each of his first three seasons; in that time, his Pro Football Focus Edge grade was never above a 58.8 (on a 0-100 scale).

2017 was different. Though the defense as a whole took steps backwards, Hitchens became a better player. With basically the same amount of snaps as he accumulated in previous seasons, all of a sudden Hitchens improved across the board. he picked up a career high in tackles (84), two pass knockdowns, and a forced fumble. He graded out decently in coverage (73.3 PFF coverage grade), but was particularly good against the run (83.1 PFF run defense grade; 10 run stuffs).

You would think Dallas would want to keep a homegrown talent that’s showing massive improvement as he enters his prime, but that may not be the case. For one thing, the team has spent significant time and draft capital on perceived better options already.

Jaylon Smith was brought in two years ago with a high draft pick despite a career-threatening injury in college; though he hasn’t shown too much in that time (only played last year, saw snaps decrease over the season, really bad against the run), there are positive signs to hang hope on (above average in coverage, decent as a pass rusher) as he gains experience and hopefully leaves his injury issues behind.

What will affect things most, however, is money. Dallas, as usual, has little cap room to work with as we near free agency. If they made no moves to cut costs, they couldn’t even afford their currently-slated draft picks. As they do every year, they will do some restructuring of their biggest contracts, but that will only do so much. They can do things such as agree on a long-term deal with Demarcus Lawrence or release underperformers like Dez Bryant (if he won’t take a pay cut), but that still leaves little room for any significant re-signings or free agency pickups. Put it all together, and Hitchens appears likely left out of their deliberations.

With him hitting the market, Cincinnati should take a chance on him. Whether as a starter or depth piece, Cincinnati has plenty of need for competent linebackers. The position appears to be their strongest group last season, but between suspensions, injuries, and poor play the group never became what it should have been.

Changes must be made. Vontaze Burfict is signed long-term, but with him being at risk of another suspension by even sneezing in the general direction of another human the team must be ready with other capable bodies. Nick Vigil shouldn’t have been a starter at all last season after a bad rookie year, and proved to be even worse than expected as the only healthy option for the team across the full year. Kevin Minter couldn’t stay on the field at all because of injuries. Vincent Rey showed exactly why the team didn’t view him as a starter any longer. None of the young guys forced into action were anywhere close to ready.

Put Hitchens in the mix, and the team has at least two quality ‘backers to use. Even with no other moves, better health luck seems inevitable from presumptive starting options, meaning less snaps for unprepared youngsters. Plus, the team could decide to follow league trends further and lean heavier on more nickel and three-safety looks, thus lessening the reliance on a possibly suspect position group.

Cost could be all that stands in the way of this from a practical standpoint. As a player coming off his best season to enter free agency for the first time, surely Hitchens wants to get a sizable payday. There’s reason to question just how big it’ll be. According to Spotrac, no position on defense has a lower average contract value than inside linebackers; even if he’s paid well for his position, it probably doesn’t break the bank.

Next: NFL Mock Draft: Unexpected first-round picks pre-FA

Something in the $5-6 million per year range may be where his asking price starts, but teams likely will balk at that for a guy who has a single quality season under his belt and has never played 600 snaps in a year. Lower that number a bit, and he’s quickly turned into a decent value for a young player on a multi-year contract. If he won’t go lower per year, maybe a one season prove-it deal can be the compromise.

Will that happen with Cincinnati? Time will tell, but if they feel they can negotiate his asking price down he’d be a decent gamble for the Bengals to take.