Los Angeles Chargers: Can improved team beat the Chiefs?

The Los Angeles Chargers have struggled for years to beat the Chiefs. But have they improved enough to overcome their division rival?

I believe in the Los Angeles Chargers, I really do. But I can’t even dream of the Bolts making the playoffs unless they can show up and beat the Kansas City Chiefs. Four-straight years of miserable losses for nearly the same reasons is beyond embarrassing. The Chiefs are the team to beat, not the Chargers, even if the former does stink it up in the post-season.

Being swept by a conference rival in eight straight meetings is a streak that a potentially good team needs to break; just ask the Toronto Raptors.

The question brought up today is simple: Have the Chargers improved enough to beat the Chiefs? There are several factors on both offense and defense, and in this article is a brief exploration of each facet.

Stopping the Chiefs’ offense

If you just look at numbers, the disparity between points allowed by the defense and points scored by the Chargers’ offense is almost disturbing. The Chiefs have scored 91 points per game over the last three matchups, compared to just 50 for the Bolts. The offense needs to score more points, yes, but a talented defends like the one the Chargers will field in 2018 needs to hold this group to something better than 30 points a game.

It’s apparent that Philip Rivers just isn’t going to lead this team to dozens of points against the Chiefs’ solid defensive scheme, so it’s imperative that Joey Bosa and company shut down this high-powered offense as best they can. Let’s see if the team has improved enough on defense to do just that…

Stopping Kareem Hunt

In two separate meetings with the Chargers in 2017, Hunt averaged 194.5 total yards per game, becoming the dual-threat back the Chiefs are accustomed to implementing in their offense. He is more than likely the priority for the Bolts to stop this season, but have they done enough to eliminate him?

I want to start by putting the numbers into a certain perspective: They’re a tad misleading. In their Week 3 win, Hunt ripped off a 69-yard touchdown run with the Chargers trying everything to stack the box. If you watch enough Chargers football, think Ronnie Brown 58-yard run to seal the game against the Cincinnati Bengals in the 2013 playoffs; good run, yes, but more of a product of the defense over-reaching out of desperation.

Up until that point in the Chiefs game, the Bolts had done an effective job of holding Hunt to “only” 103 rushing yards and 11 receiving yards. In the second meeting, the Denzel Perryman led defense held Hunt to just 40 first half yards, and the whole offense to only 10 points. Unfortunately, Perryman and eventually WILL linebacker Adrian Phillips were lost, and Hunt went off to lead the Chiefs to 30 points.

That was last year, though, and we have to take a look to see if the Chargers have the personnel this year to stop him. Here are notable acquisitions with the intent of stopping the run:

• Derwin James, S, first round selection
• Justin Jones, DT, third round selection
• Kyzir White, S/LB, fourth round selection

I’m convinced that James and White will be brought in to lay the hits and eliminate big gains. Both will be especially helpful at sniffing out screens and dump-offs. You will likely not see Hunt ripping off long back-breaking runs or sneaking out of the backfield for chunks of receiving yards too often.

However, a first down can be reached if you average just over three yards a carry on each of three downs, which all begins in the trenches. With basically the same defensive line returning for the 2018 season (minus Corey Liuget in Week 1’s matchup due to suspension), the only added piece was Jones out of North Carolina State. Asking him to come in and figure out how to plug holes and stop Hunt is a tough task.

Brandon Mebane and company didn’t get that done last year, and I have a hard time believing Justin Jones will come in and make that immediate difference. Hunt will likely have to add more carries to accumulate as many yards, I don’t think enough was done to completely stop Hunt.

Making Patrick Mahomes uncomfortable

If the evaluation on stopping Hunt got you in the doldrums, this one should brighten your day. Mahomes has all the talent to be a weapon, but lacks experience. No problem, let the Chargers defense welcome you to the NFL: Week 1 starters include two Pro-Bowl corners, two Pro-Bowl defensive ends, and some added draft talent. Oh and by the way, Trevor Williams, Desmond King, Jahleel Addae and Denzel Perryman are within the top-20 at their position.

If you can’t guess, I believe yes the Chargers’ defense can get to Mahomes; let’s talk about how. Watching his one true start against the Denver Broncos last season (albeit with not all the starters on the field), Mahomes took a grab-and-throw approach to avoid the pass rush. The logic is simple: If you can’t get to me in less than two seconds, you can’t sack me. This produced a 22-of-35 284-yard and one interception stat line.

There are two best friends for a young quarterback: Dumping off to the running back, and finding a big-bodied tight end. Stopping the latter will be discussed later, but let’s take a look at the former. One of Hunt’s strengths is catching the ball out of the backfield for huge gains across the open field (just ask the Patriots). Well, the Chargers see your Kareem Hunt, and raise you a Derwin James:

You’re going to see a lot of those short routes or dump-offs from Mahomes, and James will be there to clean it up. Take away his short routes, and the young quarterback starts to have to take shots. With such a strong arm, I expect him to. Which leads into the next point…

Stopping Tyreek Hill’s deep threat

Route for route, Casey Hayward can cover Hill no problem. Well, except for one play: The double move, shake and bake, deep ball. As much as I love Hayward, he’s had trouble covering speedsters going long, as evidenced by at least two plays last year involving bomb touchdowns to Odell Beckham Jr. and Hill himself.

This problem is two-fold: his lack of elite speed and the lack of a safety helping him over the top. The first issue won’t be fixed, as no matter what a 4.57-second 40 from Hayward should always lose out to a 4.24-second time from Hill. The second problem is up to Bradley to address, using players as needed to take away Hill’s deep ball. If James is up at the line making sure Hunt doesn’t escape, that leaves Addae to help Hayward on double moves.

I’m also very intrigued by the return of Jason Verrett, who when healthy was as elite as Hayward with more natural ability. With a 4.38-second 40-yard dash at the time of being drafted, Verrett may have a better shot of covering the deep ball if his injuries have not sapped his speed. He may not make it to Week 6, but if he can make it through Week 1 against the Chiefs, the Chargers have a shot to eliminate Hill for at least one game.

Eliminating Travis Kelce

Not too worried about this one, as the Chargers held Kelce to seven catches for 47 yards in 2017. Bradley will implement some flurry of Addae/James/King to make that work. Moving on!