San Francisco 49ers: Metrics that must improve in 2018

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LOS ANGELES, CA – DECEMBER 31: Jimmy Garoppolo #10 hands off to Matt Breida #22 of the San Francisco 49ers during the first half of a game against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on December 31, 2017 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images) /

The San Francisco 49ers look set to make a leap in 2018, here we look at the metrics they must perform better in to ensure they do so.

The San Francisco 49ers are a popular pick to contend for the postseason in 2018. Having focused much of their energy in free agency and the draft on improving the offense around Jimmy Garoppolo, many will expect the Niners to take another step after finishing 6-10 in 2017.

But in which areas does their performance on the field need to be improved for that to happen?

We took an analytical approach to answering that question by studying Football Outsiders’ metrics and identifying the ones in which San Francisco will need to perform better in to make further strides in 2018.

Rushing Success Rate

There were obvious signs, both with the heavy investment in offensive line help, and in handing a gaudy four-year, $30 million contract to Jerick McKinnon, rather than re-signing Carlos Hyde, that head coach Kyle Shanahan was far from happy with his running game in 2017. And the numbers sugggest he is right to have been dissatisfied.

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Both Hyde (44 percent – 25th) and impressive undrafted free agent Matt Breida (47 percent – 18th) recorded poor scores in the Football Outsiders’ Success Rate metric, which measures rushing consistency by tracking the number of successful run plays and dividing it by a player’s total run plays.

Breida did at least rank eighth in rushing DVOA, which, combined with his disappointing Success Rate score, suggests he did much of his damage to opposing defenses on long runs while also getting stuffed at the line of scrimmage on a consistent basis.

Hyde, though, also ranked a disappointing 35th in DVOA, his numbers reflective of a season in which he averaged just 3.9 yards per carry.

Those figures indicate the Niners were right to move on from Hyde, however, McKinnon ranked 40th in DVOA and 28th in Success Rate with 43 percent, which are the type of the numbers that would lead many to deem him a significant gamble, particularly at his price tag.

But he carries receiving upside and is a natural fit to be a feature back in a ground attack that uses a lot of outside zone runs. Still, for the 49ers to have a successful season running the ball in 2018, the Success Rate of both McKinnon and the promising Breida will need to significantly improve.