Cincinnati Bengals: Early 53-man roster predictions 2018, defensive backs

We keep on looking at the Cincinnati Bengals and predicting who will be on the 53-man roster in 2018, now focusing on the defensive backs.

After focusing on the Cincinnati Bengals and the players they’ll be working with in the 2018 offseason, we’ve finally come to the end of the defensive side of the ball.

With the rosters as full as they can be, now is a great time for an early look at who the team may decide is worthy of those coveted 53 available spots once the regular season kicks off. We have already seen the quarterbacks, running backs, wide receivers, tight ends, offensive linemen, and defensive linemen, and linebackers.

We finish the defensive side of the ball with the defensive backs.

Defensive Backs

* = starters; + = make roster

*William Jackson III
*Dre Kirkpatrick
*Darqueze Dennard
*George Iloka
*Shawn Williams
+Jessie Bates
Tyrice Beverette
+Clayton Fejedelem
+Davontae Harris
Treyvon Henderson
Tony McRae
+Darius Phillips
KeiVarae Russell
+Josh Shaw
Sojourn Shelton
Brandon Wilson

Jackson III came out of nowhere last season. His talent was obvious enough for Cincinnati to select him in the first round during the 2016 NFL draft, but an injury that summer left him off the field for his entire rookie season. When he finally got on the field for games that counted, he proved to not only be a quality defender, but an elite one — especially when it comes to advanced metrics.

Pro Football Focus Edge gave him an 89.2 overall grade for the season (No. 8 among cornerbacks). His allowed catch rate (34.9 percent) was the second-lowest for any second-year player between 2006-17. He gave up just 0.4 yards per coverage snap (best), a 36.1 passer rating (second-best), and averaged over 26 snaps per catch allowed (best). He should be the unquestioned, full-time starter at one of the corner spots.

Opposite of him, things are probably already decided, but there should be plenty of questions. Kirkpatrick has never been a particularly good option at cornerback, with his best seasons have been painfully average (2014: 72.9 PFF overall grade; 2016: 72.4). The thing is, they came at the exact right times. 2015 was when a starting spot was ready to open up as Leon Hall began to transition into a lesser role.

The 2017 offseason was when his contract was up, and seeing as he was the up-and-comer entering his prime years (plus his team didn’t have any proven replacement options) he was rewarded with a massive multi-year contract. Both of those years saw Kirkpatrick’s play take a couple steps down in quality.

There’s no reason to think he’ll become worthy of that payday he received, but due to the huge dead cap hit which would accrue should he be cut only one year into the contract (as well as Cincinnati’s stubbornness when it comes to admitting mistakes in a timely matter anyway), there’s zero chance he’s not both on the roster this fall and given plenty of opportunity to show he’s at least partially worth the investment his team made in him.

Dennard’s situation has a chance to mirror what’s gone on with Kirkpatrick. Both were first round selections, and both were unable to make an immediate impact with the team. Dennard’s struggles for awhile there were even more pronounced than Kirkpatrick’s, though; while the latter at least had a couple average years before his contract, Dennard took four years to find a capable contributor within himself.

If he can do what Kirkpatrick hasn’t — string together multiple good years — he’ll likely have an expensive new contract on his hands; if not, he’s at least got one year of quality play which massively outclasses any of Kirkpatrick’s to date. As another guy with a huge dead cap hit in tow (over $8.5 million), he’s going to be making his case for that next contract with this team.

Finishing out the expected starters would be the same two safeties from last year. Iloka and Williams have somewhat similar skill-sets and play styles, giving Cincinnati what should be good against the run and decent cleanup ability in coverage. For the most part, that’s essentially what’s happened: per PFF’s grades, both of them were no lower than a 74.5 in run defense or coverage. There is room to improve regarding forcing turnovers (between them: two interceptions, two fumble recoveries), but as starters they are a decent pairing.

Beyond the starters, a lot is riding on recent draft picks. Because of injuries around him and a good 2016, Shaw was elevated to essentially being a starter, but in the bigger role his play flopped (PFF grades, 2015-17: 74.8, 71.3, 37.5). He needs to find that previous form again if he is going to be worth keeping around long-term, but his ability to play in the slot will at least give him an opportunity to prove himself again. Fejedelem has had much less of a role, but has shown signs of decent coverage ability in his two seasons since being a late-round draft pick (74.5 PFF coverage grade in 2017). At worst, he should start the year as the #4 safety.

To fill out the rotation, look no further than all the defensive backs selected in this year’s draft. Bates should be fighting with Shaw for the No. 3 safety role throughout the summer, and if things go well he may even be able to take it from the veteran. Two fifth-round picks were spent on Harris and Phillips, and each has some intriguing features to work with.

Harris has the size and speed the team can try to mold into a useful piece. Phillips may lack size, but he brings in the sort of ball skills the team sorely lacks (Cincinnati had just 11 interceptions in 2017): in three seasons of playing at Western Michigan, he had 35 pass knockdowns, 12 interceptions, four forced fumbles, and three fumble recoveries.

Next: NFL 2018: Ranking all 32 starting RBs

The players beyond them don’t come without their own intrigue, but Cincinnati’s history of sticking with draft picks (especially in their first seasons) and needs elsewhere on the roster leave only so many roster spots available for guys. Two guys worth watching would be Wilson and Henderson. Wilson was a draft pick from last year played at multiple positions in college (CB, S, and RB).

That versatility, if utilized properly, could make him an exciting asset for a team which could probably use a few more of them (or at least be a special teams contributor). Henderson doesn’t offer versatility and has plenty of exploitable flaws, but among the safeties the team is sorting through his positives (aggressive, decent at covering tight ends) make him a decent challenger for a backup safety slots if he can do well on special teams.