Miami Dolphins running back Kenyan Drake was a surprise breakout star in 2017. How productive will he be in the 2018 season though?
All the talk heading into last season about the Miami Dolphins running back situation surrounded 2016 breakout star Jay Ajayi. That narrative quickly changes. So drastically that Ajayi was shipped out town to Philly mid-season as he gave way to last year’s breakout star Kenyan Drake. It was a move that worked out for all parties. The Dolphins were better with Drake as the top back, and things obviously worked out for the Eagles and Ajayi got a much needed fresh start and a system more fit for his style of running.
After taking over a feature back role the last five games of the season Drake exploded. He rushed for 444 yards and two touchdowns on 4.9 yards per carry while tacking on 17 receptions for 150 yards. Over 16 games, that would average out to about 1,421 yards and seven touchdowns with over 54 receptions for 500 yards. Those are potentially staggering numbers for a back who to many seemingly came out of nowhere.
However, you will notice the beginning of the article asks how productive he will be this year, not how good he will be. I have little doubt he that he will be efficient and turn heads when he’s playing, but I do have serious concerns about his potential workload when it comes to his personal production.
The Dolphins added veteran Frank Gore and rookie Kalen Ballage this offseason. Both have a high potential to see significant touches. Gore is 35 but seemingly ageless. He’s coming off a 961-yard season behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league. Ballage is very talented and already garnering attention this summer. He looked great at OTAs, particularly on passing downs and should earn a role.
I do expect Drake to be the top back in Miami this season, however, he could be used a bit more sparingly than many are anticipating. Think more Lamar Miller than Ajayi. Drake will likely see about 11-13 carries per game. Gore will surely see at least six touches each week and Ballage is the wild card.
As a Dolphins fan, this could be great for the team having this stable of backs. Nonetheless, this is almost a pseudo-fantasy article in regards to Drake’s numbers. So if you are specifically invested in Drake you may need to temper expectations a bit.
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Training camp and the preseason will be key for this running back corps and Drake. Be sure to monitor this situation if you are interested in this group heading into the 2018 season. It’s going to be an exciting summer which hopefully leads into a successful fall and winter.
A realistic expectation for Drake should be about 1,000 yards, six touchdowns and solid but not outstanding receiving numbers perhaps somewhere between 38-46 receptions for 350 yards. No matter what happens I’m excited to watch it play out!