NFL 2018 Predictions: Which team goes first to worst?

For every positive story of formally bad NFL teams winning their division, there is the flip side. At least one team every season goes from first place to last place. Who will fall down the mountain during the NFL 2018 season?

The NFL gives off the impression that parity always works positively. Anyone can come out of nowhere to compete for the playoffs or a division title. Teams jump from last place to first place within one offseason every season.

Well, as logic would dictate, the opposite is also true. Teams can fall out of contention just as fast. Though it feels like it should be rarer, the first-to-worst drop is essentially just as common as its optimistic counterpart. It happens roughly once a year. Who will “pull it off” during the NFL 2018 season?

In 2017, the Houston Texans dropped to last place in their division after winning it in 2016. The New York Giants also came darn close. They didn’t win the NFC East in 2016 but went 11-5 and finished in second. Also in 2016, the Carolina Panthers dropped to last after finishing first the year prior. In 2015, the Dallas Cowboys did the deed. Nobody completed the free fall in 2014, but two teams “succeeded” in doing so in 2013: the Texans and the Washington Redskins.

Injuries obviously can play a major role in this outcome. Even one injury, if to an important enough player, can ruin an entire season. Whether that drops a defending champion into last place is determined by any number of other factors, but it’s an unpredictable swing.

Without trying to pick an important injury, who would you target in the NFL 2018 to drop to last place after winning their division in 2017? Here are the contenders:

New England Patriots
Pittsburgh Steelers
Jacksonville Jaguars
Kansas City Chiefs
Philadelphia Eagles
Minnesota Vikings
New Orleans Saints
Los Angeles Rams

Two brothers from New York, Dan Salem and Todd Salem, debate the NFL 2018 in today’s NFL Sports Debate.

Todd Salem:

In my opinion, for as hard as this exercise should be, there is an obvious answer and an obvious second pick. First, the teams I must rule out as being so incredibly unlikely to finish in last. New England, Pittsburgh, Jacksonville, Philadelphia, Minnesota, and Los Angeles are all out of this discussion for me. Some have too much talent (Jaguars, Eagles, Vikings, Rams), and others have too little competition (Patriots, Steelers). Any of these six teams could certainly fall out of the playoffs if a few things went against them, but to fall to last place too many things would have to fall out of place.

That leaves just two squads, the Chiefs and the Saints. New Orleans is the clear runner-up. It has the unfortunate placement of being in a division with three talented peers. No one can tell me definitively that Tampa Bay — the expected last-place finisher — is tiers below its divisional opponents offensively. It just isn’t true. And if there isn’t a huge offensive separation, the Saints certainly don’t secure victories with their defense. It at least feels plausible.

With Kansas City, the argument is even easier. Little, if anything, separates all four members of the AFC West. It’s a toss-up who is even likely to finish in last. That automatically puts the Chiefs in contention. The fact that they pulled a hard reset by handing the offense over the Pat Mahomes makes the case even easier to see. The Chiefs could win the West again; it’s in play. But they are also, far and away, the likeliest first-place team to drop to last place.

Dan Salem:

There’s little debate over which teams we must eliminate from this discussion. The NFL 2018 will not look THAT different from the season prior, meaning New England, Jacksonville and Pittsburgh will still be very good. So will Minnesota, Los Angeles and Philadelphia. All six teams possess either great defense or great quarterbacks. Some have both. All reside in divisions with significantly worse teams coming out of the bottom. This leaves us with New Orleans and Kansas City.

I’m a gut instinct person when it comes to predictions and my instincts tell me New Orleans is most vulnerable. The Saints were my pick to win the division, but that does not make them any less insecure in the standings. New Orleans can conceivably end with seven victories and be in last place. It wasn’t long ago that the entire NFC South ended with seven to nine wins. This division is once again that close.

The Buccaneers are the wildcard, but starting the season with Ryan Fitzpatrick at quarterback is not a setback. It could actually be the spark that Tampa Bay needs to win more games than its division competition. He’s known for doing great in short spurts. Carolina and Atlanta are also strong, leaving the Saints with a ton of work to do in order to stay atop the division. There are also numerous sophomore slumps in play for New Orleans. They are my pick for first to worst, because it’s going to happen to someone.

NFL 2018: Which Teams Goes Worst to First?

Kansas City has been the epitome of stability under Andy Reid. He’s also known as a quarterback guru of sorts. I don’t know how good or bad Mahomes will be, but the Chiefs have the perfect supporting cast to succeed with him under center. I’m also not that high on Oakland, because I don’t trust their defense. Denver has a lot to prove as well with a new quarterback in town. Then there is Los Angeles and Philip Rivers, who consistently find ways to come up short. My confidence in the AFC West is teetering on the edge of a cliff, but the Chiefs provide at least something resembling stability. Falling all the way to the bottom feels unlikely.