New York Giants: Saquon Barkley stat comparisons
By Zac Wassink
Comparing New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley to three current players and one from the past.
New York Giants running back Saquon Barkley is the most hyped rookie featured by the franchise in recent memory. We know, today, wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr. is special and a once-in-a-generation talent. Four summers ago, Beckham couldn’t get onto the practice field because of lingering hamstring problems. Quarterback Eli Manning was expected to sit behind Kurt Warner for the bulk of his debut campaign. That, of course, didn’t happen.
Barkley will begin training camp as Superman, a human-highlight reel tasked with helping the Giants return to meaningful January football games and the postseason right out of the gates. Fair or not, the 21-year old will be as scrutinized, if not more so, than any rookie in his class. Every fumble or dropped pass will become a talking point on local sports talk radio and national television shows. Critics will inevitably view any perceived sign of weakness as proof the Giants got the pick wrong.
Earlier this week, Bucky Brooks of NFL.com gave his “best case/worst case” stat forecasts for 11 rookies, Barkley included. As Brooks wrote, Barkley enters an offense already starting multiple playmakers, including Beckham, Sterling Shepard and Evan Engram. It’s not all sunshine and rainbows, however, as New York’s offensive line remains a work in progress and a unit that is likely to experience some chemistry issues. In the end, Brooks projected the following for Barkley: 275 carries, 1,200 rushing yards, 55 receptions, 450 receiving yards, 14 total touchdowns.
14 touchdowns seems high, on paper, but remember that Barkley won’t just be the bell cow back for the Giants. It’s believed he’ll be a favorite target of Manning in the passing attack. Per ESPN, Barkley finished his final season at Penn State with 54 receptions and three receiving touchdowns. If he matches that production, 14 total scores won’t be a stretch.
Barkley will be compared to Dallas Cowboys star Ezekiel Elliott until further notice because of the rivalry between the two clubs and the fact that they share a division. Elliott took the NFL by storm in 2016, averaging 5.1 yards per carry on 322 total rushes. He found the end zone 16 times in regular-season play. In short, he played like a future Hall of Famer.
Stats deceive more than lie, in some instances, and Elliott’s numbers from his rookie year don’t tell that he was lucky enough to run behind an offensive line for the ages. Barkley won’t have that luxury in 2018 regardless of how much better New York’s front line is from a year ago. If Barkley even flirts with matching Elliott’s stats, he’ll be an MVP candidate, let alone run away with Rookie of the Year honors.
Like Elliott, Los Angeles Rams running back Todd Gurley emerged as a star before the end of his rookie year. Gurley, who appeared in 13 regular season contests, in 2015, averaged 4.8 yards per rush on 229 carries. He accumulated 1,106 total rushing yards, but he did hit a “rookie wall,” during which he failed to reach 100 yards in six straight games.
Le’Veon Bell, widely viewed as the best in the business who is betting on himself and not signing a long-term deal with the Pittsburgh Steelers this summer, didn’t “break out” until his second season in the NFL. Bell averaged 4.7 yards per carry on 290 rushes in 2014, and he finished that campaign with 1,361 yards and eight rushing touchdowns.
Then there’s Tiki Barber, the former second-round draft selection who evolved into the Giants’ all-time leader in rushing yards. Barber didn’t show signs of producing at an elite level out of the backfield until his fourth season, when he averaged 4.7 yards per carry. Per Tom Rock of Newsday, Barber said in May that it would be a “good thing” if Barkley broke his franchise marks.
Viewing these four players through box scores only, Brooks’ predictions actually make for somewhat of an underwhelming year. Using his numbers, Barkley, would, theoretically, average under 4.4 yards per carry. 275 total rushes breaks down to under 17 carries per contest. Assuming Barkley remains healthy from September through the holiday season, and also that the Giants aren’t facing massive deficits on the regular, that’s a solid number of touches.
Next: NFL 2018: Rookie class bold predictions
Every player is different, as is every situation. Twelve months ago, not even the most pessimistic individual could have guessed the 2017 edition of Big Blue would be plagued by injuries, mistrust and other issues that sunk the roster before the team’s first preseason game. Barkley’s rookie season cannot be viewed in a vacuum, which is why those yearning for him to be a fantasy football icon in year one may want to pump the brakes.